French Municipal elections - 2nd round 28 June 2020

[parochial boy]

Is it time for a thread? I think it's time for a thread on the next installment of everybody's favourite series "Les aventures de Jupiter: La (pas tellement) mystérieuse disparition du parti Socaliste" (avec tout le monde sauf Les Républicains).

Anyway, reason for starting this thread - Yannick Jadot has ruled out a left alliance in Lyon (maybe in the second round, EELV got 21% in the Europeans you see), proving that the French left continue to collectively be a group of narcissistic arsewipes who deserve everything they get. Anyway, congratulations of your re-election M. Collomb.

More to follow. Maybe.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Apparently there is a rift within LREM in Paris, with two declared candidates. Any chance that Hidalgo could hang on as a result? I'm more emotionally invested in her hanging on than I perhaps should. She's one of the few in the PS with any integrity.

[parochial boy]

Oh it would be sweet if Griveaux somehow lost in Paris. If anyone sums up the careerist snob with no fixed values its him. From what I can tell, its a bit more hopeful for Hidalgo than it was a year or so ago - her approval ratings are up, and a lot of the anger over the things like the alternance and pederstrianising the right bank of the Seine have died down. And hopefully most of the angry motorists don't actually live in Paris.

Vaguely trying to work out which big cities the left has the best chance of holding (ignoring the popularity or unpopularity of the incumbent of course), I went through the Euro election results to see what EELV, LFI, PS, Génération.S, PCF, Lutte Ouvrière and the Animalistes (I'm calling them left, what the hell...) got together. For interest if nothing else it was something like:

Rennes - 52.2%
Lille - 50.9%
Grenoble - 49.8%
Toulouse - 48.9%
Nantes - 48.5%
Bordeaux - 44.4%
Strasbourg - 43.2%
Paris - 42.6%
Lyon - 42.2%
Marseille - 35.5%
Nice - 28.3%

I'm not sure if anyone noticed at the time, but the geography of the Parti Animaliste was actually a little bit surprising. They very definitely underperformed in the larger towns and cities; with a few exceptions being the likes of Le Havre, ie no the idéopôle type places. Backing this up, their best departments in France where in places like Haute-Marne, Corsica, Oise, Eure and the Ardennes. Definitely seems like they were being used as a protest vote back in May

[parochial boy]

Rachida Dati will lead the Les Républicains (remember them?) list in Paris. Apparently it's been deemed to be a not-very-good idea; but LR have no hope so... meh.

Also causing a minor stir was noted Galaxy Brain Christophe Castaner's idea of getting rid of the traditional "DVG" and "DVD" lables for independent candidatures in smaller (ie population under 1'000) municipalities. Idea is that the growth of "citizens" lists, party dealignment and the general irrelvance of ideological leanings in small village municipal politics makes the labels irrelevant and arbitrary. Of course, there are lots of LREM aligned "independent" lists going to be standing, who would rather not have a "Right" or "Left" label attached to them. So guess who doing this would mostly wind up helping?

[EastAnglianLefty]

When were DVD and DVG introduced as labels? It strikes me as something that makes a lot of sense in terms of identifying what independents actually stand for, so it would be a shame to lose it.

[Zinneke]

https://www.france24.com/fr/20191119-airbnb-sponsor-olympique-anne-hidalgo-promet-referendum-apres-municipales

https://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/griveaux-je-suis-en-train-de-batir-une-relation-charnelle-avec-les-parisiens-20191117

https://www.nouvelobs.com/elections-municipales-2020/20191002.OBS19204/benalla-fait-il-campagne-a-saint-denis-pour-les-municipales.html

Nous y sommes...

[parochial boy]

Greens also rejected a pact with Méluche in Marseille. Will now campaign for the RN instead

When were DVD and DVG introduced as labels? It strikes me as something that makes a lot of sense in terms of identifying what independents actually stand for, so it would be a shame to lose it.

Couldn't tell from a relatively brief internet search - although the laws around it seem to be being constantly tinkered with. As for being used in smaller communes though, it does seem a little bit arbitrary - my parents live in a tiny village in Brittany of less than a thousand people. The mayor is classed as DVD, but as far as I have ever been able to tell, nothing that he has ever said or done would really be identifiably ideological in any sense. It's all stuff like asking the bin men to come more often or renovating the school building. In which case, why make an ideological label when in practice it's meaningless?

[parochial boy]

Posting a couple of recent polls from Paris and Strasbourg courtesy of Ifop. Both considerably less gruesome than might otherwise be expected





Huffington Post are keeping a tracker of polling within individual communes here

[Former President tack50]

Is it just me or does LREM struggle a bit at the local level?

Kind of makes me wonder what will happen to the party in 2027

[parochial boy]

Lack of local notables. France generally has a pretty weak party system that complements a fairly strong tradition of local barons. For example Alain Juppé being mayor of Bordeaux for approximately 500 years, or Bayrou in Pau, or a guy like Jean-Christophe Lagarde managing to get elected somewhere like Drancy. It's even more the case in smaller and more rural parts of the country (cf the now soon-to-be-defunct-but-apparently-they-changed-their-minds Parti Radical de Gauche whose entire existence was predicated on a handful of people who could win municipal and departmental elections as a particularly pertinent example of this).

So with a party like LREM, excepting a few high profile defections like Collomb in an already instinctively LREM-inclined city like Lyon, they don't really have those sorts of local profiles, and that makes municipal elections particularly disadvantageous. The move to a single constituency in the Euro elections was also allegedly inspired by the fact it would mean LREM only needing to find one as opposed to 8 têtes de liste, which gives you an idea already. The French party system is byzantine enough that this probably doesn't matter that much for at least the short term post-Macron. It's not like the party of the incumbent president is going to struggle to get the 500 signatures. Probably the new laws on the cumul des mandats helps too.

[parochial boy]

Édouard Philippe the, you know, Prime Minister is apparently heading a list in his home town of Le Havre. Except that he won't actually become mayor if he wins - next comes a sort of confused blur in which it appears the LR incumbent Jean-Baptiste Gastinne would stay mayor in the event; except that LR have said they are refusing to support Philippe's list.

WTF is this? WT actual F is this? The man even makes his boss look humble

[Zinneke]

Griveaux has withdrawn from the Paris race as he had a "sex tape" released by a Russian artist published while running on the family man image. He was tumbling in the polls anyway.

Macron had recently disenfranchised Villani, the dissident Marconiste candidate, from his movement. So poor timing for the President.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Hopefully altogether, France rejects EM and that makes the headline of the news. Idc which party wins as long it's not Macron's one. The entire left & right incl. far-right & far-left should unite against Macron under one banner. Macron's the biggest disaster for the country since WW2.

[Intell]

Hopefully altogether, France rejects EM and that makes the headline of the news. Idc which party wins as long it's not Macron's one. The entire left & right incl. far-right & far-left should unite against Macron under one banner. Macron's the biggest disaster for the country since WW2.

lolllllll

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Hopefully altogether, France rejects EM and that makes the headline of the news. Idc which party wins as long it's not Macron's one. The entire left & right incl. far-right & far-left should unite against Macron under one banner. Macron's the biggest disaster for the country since WW2.

lolllllll

Maybe not with the far-right and right, but the left should unite. From PS to LO.

[Zinneke]

Hopefully altogether, France rejects EM and that makes the headline of the news. Idc which party wins as long it's not Macron's one. The entire left & right incl. far-right & far-left should unite against Macron under one banner. Macron's the biggest disaster for the country since WW2.

I think the handling of Algerian independence and the coup d'état attempt was a bigger disaster (that was, granted averted), and then you can add a bunch of stuff like Rainbow Warrior, Le Pen 2002, terrorist attacks, j'en passe...

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Hopefully altogether, France rejects EM and that makes the headline of the news. Idc which party wins as long it's not Macron's one. The entire left & right incl. far-right & far-left should unite against Macron under one banner. Macron's the biggest disaster for the country since WW2.

I think the handling of Algerian independence and the coup d'état attempt was a bigger disaster (that was, granted averted), and then you can add a bunch of stuff like Rainbow Warrior, Le Pen 2002, terrorist attacks, j'en passe...

Maybe.
Terrorist attacks i didn't include but you're right.
Rainbow Warrior, i don't know the term.
Le Pen 2002 did lose and not even by a bit, but yes he would be even more terrible than Macron.

[Lechasseur]

Hidalgo will most likely be reelected imo

[windjammer]

Hidalgo will most likely be reelected imo

Yes it is likelier. Although I guess the Greens going rogue is an unlikely possibility.

[Zinneke]

Health Minister Agnes Buzyn replaces the disgraced Griveaux. It turns out the Russian artist, who has a history of doing crazy stunts against the Putin regime and, once exiled in Paris, also in the streets (such as stapling his goolies to the ground) leaked this video to show the world that politicians were more shamed for their sex scandals than stealing from the people. He is being defended by Insoumis darling boy, author and anti-Macronista Juan Branco.

How did the Russian artist have the video? It was his significant other who was the recipient!

One of the most Parisian political scandals imaginable. But also a bizarre reversing of the French consensus to leave private lives out of politics. Because although everybody condemned the revenge porn act, there is no denying that these affairs now whey on candidates whereas before a President could have a mistress without so much as a batting of an eyelid.

[kelestian]

Health Minister Agnes Buzyn replaces the disgraced Griveaux. It turns out the Russian artist, who has a history of doing crazy stunts against the Putin regime and, once exiled in Paris, also in the streets (such as stapling his goolies to the ground) leaked this video to show the world that politicians were more shamed for their sex scandals than stealing from the people. He is being defended by Insoumis darling boy, author and anti-Macronista Juan Branco.

How did the Russian artist have the video? It was his significant other who was the recipient!

One of the most Parisian political scandals imaginable. But also a bizarre reversing of the French consensus to leave private lives out of politics. Because although everybody condemned the revenge porn act, there is no denying that these affairs now whey on candidates whereas before a President could have a mistress without so much as a batting of an eyelid.

This artist, Pavlenskiy, is deranged psychopath. Aside from anti-Putin stunts, he was accused  in attempted rape of one russian actress (with helping from his wife!) and in violence against different people.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

yes, I was shocked when I saw the headline "French politician withdraws from race due to affair" - I thought France was a place where people look down on their politicians if they don't have extra-marital flings?

[Zinneke]

yes, I was shocked when I saw the headline "French politician withdraws from race due to affair" - I thought France was a place where people look down on their politicians if they don't have extra-marital flings?

There's rumours Griveaux just did it to save face in more ways than one. He was polling at something like 15% and Villani (the dissident LREM candidate) was catching him up. Griveaux is a pretty shameless guy, insinuated that Vilani was a virgin, has regularly attacked people off the record similar to Loiseau did at the EP. Dude in the end probably still loves his kids though and doesn't want them to grow up with his dick pics attached to their name.

I honestly think an ounce of puritanism would do the French political class a world of good, but that's just my opinion. I think the general consensus of French public opinion is that Griveaux is the victim and that he, under normal circumstances, should not have to withdraw on moral grounds, but rather from the fact that he is a unique idiot being a public figure sending dick pics with his name attached.

[Lechasseur]

https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/municipales/municipales-a-paris-violente-passe-d-armes-entre-buzyn-et-hidalgo-sur-le-coronavirus-20200225

The new LREM candidate in the Paris Mayoral election was caught lying about her contact with incumbent mayor of Anne Hidalgo while she was minister of health.

It really seems to me that LREM will not be getting the coveted keys to city hall.

[Lechasseur]

Anne Hidalgo held a rally

Details in the article (in French)

https://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/municipales-a-paris-anne-hidalgo-monte-au-front-face-a-ses-opposants-20200226