French Municipal elections - 2nd round 28 June 2020

[Antonio the Sixth]

Apparently there is a rift within LREM in Paris, with two declared candidates. Any chance that Hidalgo could hang on as a result? I'm more emotionally invested in her hanging on than I perhaps should. She's one of the few in the PS with any integrity.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This is actual madness.

Clearly French public officials are taking the situation very seriously.

[Antonio the Sixth]

God, this is a disaster.

Holding elections under these circumstances is a nonsense. How is it possible the French government is allowing this?

Because it creates an extremely dodgy constitutional precedent

It really doesn't. Local elections have been postponed by decree before (by one full year in 2008!). It's not particularly novel or controversial.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hidalgo apparently well positioned in Paris. Then again given that the runoff might be held months from now, this probably means jacksh*t.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So we'll have a runoff 3 months after the first round. What a f**king clown show.

[Antonio the Sixth]

As per the new law just passed, if the runoff can't be held before the end of June, both rounds will be redone.

In other words, last Sunday 20 million people went out and exposed themselves to serious health risks to perform their civic duties for nothing. This government is a disgrace.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Given that the idiotic decision to go ahead with these elections has clearly contributed to a further worsening of the crisis, should there not be consequences?

Of course there should, and of course there won't be.

I mean, for whatever it's worth, LRM already did terribly on March 15. They might do even worse next time, whenever that is.

[Antonio the Sixth]

As per the new law just passed, if the runoff can't be held before the end of June, both rounds will be redone.

In other words, last Sunday 20 million people went out and exposed themselves to serious health risks to perform their civic duties for nothing. This government is a disgrace.

Once again, how the government is the only responsable? The municipal elections take place in March, it's in the law, therefore the government can not, by its own decision, postponing the elections.
All oppositions parties refuse to postpone the election.

They didn't need opposition parties to pass a law postponing elections. Widespread opposition has never stopped this government from shoving laws down parliament's throat before.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I mean, you don't have to tell me the French right sucks. I've been loathing The Republicans since before they called themselves that, for as long as I've been attentive to politics. But in France's hyper-majoritarian government, it's very clear where responsibility lies. The government can, in practice, get its way on almost anything. And so when things go wrong, it's the government's fault. Period.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I really can't understand how the government can decide to postpone an election without the Senate's approval.
I guess the only option to do it was to invoke article 16. And clearly that is way too extreme.

The same way all the governments of the Fifth Republic override the Senate every time it tries to oppose anything. It's a routine procedure.

Would the right have cried bloody murder over it? Sure. That just means they'd end up with an egg on their face when the government is proven right and the epidemic ramps up.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I really can't understand how the government can decide to postpone an election without the Senate's approval.
I guess the only option to do it was to invoke article 16. And clearly that is way too extreme.

The same way all the governments of the Fifth Republic override the Senate every time it tries to oppose anything. It's a routine procedure.

Would the right have cried bloody murder over it? Sure. That just means they'd end up with an egg on their face when the government is proven right and the epidemic ramps up.

From what I understand, the President of Senate was ready to refer everything to the Constitionnal Council, through.

So what? The Council would have no basis for striking down the law. There is ample precedent for this.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Whatever. The government could have at least TRIED to do something to stop this madness, and it didn't even do that. All the excuses and equivocation in the world can't change that.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, at this point June 28th is the best choice we have. Having to redo the first round and wait months and months to elect all the mayors of major cities would be an absolute debacle.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, at this point June 28th is the best choice we have. Having to redo the first round and wait months and months to elect all the mayors of major cities would be an absolute debacle.

Will the conditions then actually be any worse than when the first round went ahead anyway?

I honestly have no idea. I hope that the situation has improved enough that, with basic precautions and appropriate distancing, the election can be held without much risk, but I'm not familiar enough with the situation in France to say.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, that is modestly encouraging on more than one level.

Yeah, that was the right thing to do. Hopefully it can be done with maximum safety.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Reasonably interesting of the RN vote from the Jean-Jaurès foundation (PS aligned, so watch out). Basically, despite the eye catching scores of a few incumbents, notably Steeve Briois in Hénin-Beaumont, they didn't do all that well. They had a strategy of consolidating resources around towns with better prospects, but despite this, only 136 of 262 lists cleared the 10% hurdle this year - compared to 317 out of 369 in 2014. And some fairly notable drops across the country.

Factor in LREM's poor performances - dissapointing across the big towns, notably including Gérard Collomb's third place in Lyon métropole - and it doesn't look that convincing for the fabled realignment of French politics around the Souverainiste and Progressiste wings. I mean, yeah, municipals are a bit unusual and rely more on local notable figures, of which LREM and RN both have relatively few. But still...

One thing to consider is the record high abstention. The FN vote tends to be highly turnout-sensitive given its demographics, so it's possible that a lot of their underperformance was a result of that.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fascinating map. It looks like in most of France, higher abstention correlates strongly with population density, but the relationship is reversed in Ile-de-France. So you get a map with Paris and the "empty diagonal" on one side, and everything else on the other side. I guess part of the issue was that abstention was already very high in the Paris area, so there was less room for it to grow.

I'd still ascribe a big share of the FN drop to abstention, but there was definitely more going on, for sure.

[Antonio the Sixth]

On another topic, crocodile tears at the ready, but (ex-)Lyon mayor Gérard Collomb (and ex-Socialist) makes an alliance with LR for the second round, whereby he steps down in favour of the LR candidate for the Lyon métropole; and they return the favour for LREM's Yann Cucherat in the municipality. LREM promptly disown the alliance and withdraw their support for Collomb and Cucherat - meaning the end of an era for Collomb's Lyon.

Do you think that might allow the PS candidate to pull it off?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Turnout really is dismal... I was hoping things would be better now that the bulk of the pandemic has passed and the electoral infrastructure is hopefully better organized to deal with it. Can't blame the voters for still being afraid, though.

[Antonio the Sixth]

EELV takes Lyon

Good riddance Collomb, don't let the door hit you

[Antonio the Sixth]

EELV seems to be ahead in Bordeaux and Strasbourg as well

[Antonio the Sixth]

Paris estimate:
Hidalgo 49.3%
Dati 32.7%
Buzyn 13.7%

My Queen Is Alive

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yup, Bordeaux is flipping.

Somehow it looks like Moudenc might survive in Toulouse, though.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The left union appears to have won the 6th district of Marseille. If so, it would probably have a plurality in the municipal council.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Marseille estimate:
Rubirola 39.9%
Vassal 29.8%
Ravier 19.8%

VERY big if true.