Russian locals, 8th September: UR weakened in Moscow by joint opposition list

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Regional elections in Russia yesterday, of which the two most important were the St Petersburg gubernatorial (which will probably be won by Putin ally Alexander Beglov after the withdrawal of his Communist opponent and - more interestingly - the Moscow Duma, where the UR lost 15 seats (although retaining its majority, with 25 seats out of 45). The latter election saw an election pact of sorts between the Communists, A Just Russia and Yabloko, with Alexei Navalny himself imploring his supporters to vote for Communists despite them often being considered a faux opposition force. (A shift that has been criticized by other opposition figures like Kasparov).

UR also suffered badly in the Eastern province of Khabarovsk, which was swept by the far right LDPR. The ruling party still has a lot of support, both public and institutional, but it seems a broad anger at a recent retirement age increase has damaged their brand.

[DC Al Fine]

How 'controlled' are the non-Yabloko opposition parties you mentioned? I was under the impression that Yabloko was a legitimate opposition, LPDR was 100% in Putin's pocket, and have heard varying things about Just Russia and the Communists.

[kelestian]

It depends. LDPR in Khabarovsk region is pretty autonomous, now they (or, better say, governor Sergey Furgal) control all power in the region. Of course he is not in conflict with Putin - Putin can fire any governor, but Furgal is in opposition to government in general.

About Moscow Council: most of communist winners (13) are enemies of local authorities and  allies of Navalny, two are establishment figures with connections to mayor Sobyanin (young Zyuganov and Gubenko).

Just Russia won 3 seats, two of them are legitimate oppositioners (Timanov and Yandiev), third is curious case - Solovyov was supported by Navalny, but only because all normal candidates were banned in his district. Originally, Solovyov from Just Russia was a spoiler to opposition activist Alexander Solovyov, who was later banned from participation in election and now is in jail (administrative term, he must spend about two weeks in jail).

Many establishment, loyal-to-mayor figures from CPRF and Just Russia, lost - both leaders of Moscow Just Russia lost to communists, and former mayoral CPRF candidate Cumin lost to Yabloko.

[urutzizu]

How 'controlled' are the non-Yabloko opposition parties you mentioned? I was under the impression that Yabloko was a legitimate opposition, LPDR was 100% in Putin's pocket, and have heard varying things about Just Russia and the Communists.

Just Russia is basically a front for the Kremlin. They have almost no independence whatsoever. Id say LPDR is less controlled than them. They are pro-Kremlin, but not necessarily pro-Medvedev. The Communists are also supportive of Putin on the issues we in the west care about (Crimea, Gay rights etc.) but not Medvedev and especially not economic policy such as Pension reform. For Just Russia the word "controlled" is correct imo, but i am not sure to what extent it applies to LPDR/Communists. Perhaps here the word "tolerated" is better?

Should be said that while the focus has mostly been on Moscow, outside Moscow United Russia swept almost everything, helped in part by the strategy of replacing Governors a Year before the election with new ones, to mitigate the anti-incumbency. So its not so much of a loss for UR.

[Walmart_shopper]

How 'controlled' are the non-Yabloko opposition parties you mentioned? I was under the impression that Yabloko was a legitimate opposition, LPDR was 100% in Putin's pocket, and have heard varying things about Just Russia and the Communists.

Just Russia is basically a front for the Kremlin. They have almost no independence whatsoever. Id say LPDR is less controlled than them. They are pro-Kremlin, but not necessarily pro-Medvedev. The Communists are also supportive of Putin on the issues we in the west care about (Crimea, Gay rights etc.) but not Medvedev and especially not economic policy such as Pension reform. For Just Russia the word "controlled" is correct imo, but i am not sure to what extent it applies to LPDR/Communists. Perhaps here the word "tolerated" is better?

Should be said that while the focus has mostly been on Moscow, outside Moscow United Russia swept almost everything, helped in part by the strategy of replacing Governors a Year before the election with new ones, to mitigate the anti-incumbency. So its not so much of a loss for UR.

Sounds a lot like the local elections in Turkey. Yeah, it's fine to put a chink in the armor of Putin and Erdogen in the capitals of the two countries. But it's still a long way from actually threatening each's grip on national power.

[smoltchanov]

How 'controlled' are the non-Yabloko opposition parties you mentioned? I was under the impression that Yabloko was a legitimate opposition, LPDR was 100% in Putin's pocket, and have heard varying things about Just Russia and the Communists.

Just Russia is basically a front for the Kremlin. They have almost no independence whatsoever. Id say LPDR is less controlled than them. They are pro-Kremlin, but not necessarily pro-Medvedev. The Communists are also supportive of Putin on the issues we in the west care about (Crimea, Gay rights etc.) but not Medvedev and especially not economic policy such as Pension reform. For Just Russia the word "controlled" is correct imo, but i am not sure to what extent it applies to LPDR/Communists. Perhaps here the word "tolerated" is better?

Should be said that while the focus has mostly been on Moscow, outside Moscow United Russia swept almost everything, helped in part by the strategy of replacing Governors a Year before the election with new ones, to mitigate the anti-incumbency. So its not so much of a loss for UR.

Sounds a lot like the local elections in Turkey. Yeah, it's fine to put a chink in the armor of Putin and Erdogen in the capitals of the two countries. But it's still a long way from actually threatening each's grip on national power.

Absolutely. 2022-23 in best case.

Kelestian - thanks for very good analysis! I can only second it..