Which presidential election had the most uniform state by state results?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 04:52:10 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  Which presidential election had the most uniform state by state results?
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Which presidential election had the most uniform state by state results?  (Read 1243 times)
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,937
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 11, 2019, 09:29:09 PM »

The question is as in the title. For me, it is a tie between 1984 and 1988, as Reagan's landslide over Mondale was very widespread (and he obtained very similar percentages throughout a broad swath of the country), while Bush's victory over Dukakis was also spread widely.

Discuss below.
Logged
Matty
boshembechle
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,901


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 11, 2019, 10:01:04 PM »

Disagree on 1988. There was a definite difference in margin in the midwest/plains compared to elsewhere.
Logged
DINGO Joe
dingojoe
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,700
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 12, 2019, 12:13:09 AM »

I was always struck by how narrow the margins were in the 1976 election all over the map.  Sure there were blowouts like GA and Utah, but every region had 51-49 states all over the place.
Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,348


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 12, 2019, 01:21:42 AM »

Here is 1984:
                               
https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-groups-voted-1984


Outside the North East it was very uniform


Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,937
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 12, 2019, 03:43:21 PM »

Disagree on 1988. There was a definite difference in margin in the midwest/plains compared to elsewhere.

I can see your point, given how Dukakis performed better than his national average in South Dakota and Montana, won Iowa by a surprisingly wide margin, and of course, also carried Minnesota and Wisconsin. He also did better than his national average in Illinois and in Missouri, coming within 2-4% of carrying both states. But all of this was due to the farm crisis that was a major concern at the time. And even then, I would still argue that 1988 was uniform. There were a substantial number of close states across the country.

Besides the ones that I just mentioned, Washington, Oregon, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Vermont, West Virginia, and Connecticut were all within single digits that year. Bush's victories throughout the South were uniform, with him averaging around 59-60% of the vote. Nowhere did he get lower than 44% (Rhode Island) or higher than 66% (Utah). Dukakis's percentages ranged between 32% (Utah) and 56% (Rhode Island), not counting D.C.
Logged
darklordoftech
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,388
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 13, 2019, 06:01:03 PM »

What about 1972?
Logged
morgankingsley
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,018
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 13, 2019, 07:00:25 PM »


The south was way too brutal to McGovern to count. He got like -I think- 19 percent in Mississippi
Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,937
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 13, 2019, 07:48:25 PM »
« Edited: September 13, 2019, 07:52:44 PM by Calthrina950 »


The south was way too brutal to McGovern to count. He got like -I think- 19 percent in Mississippi

McGovern lost Mississippi 78.20-19.63%. Mississippi actually went more strongly for Nixon than Washington D.C. went for McGovern. And Nixon got more than 70% of the vote in Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and Florida as well (in addition to Oklahoma and Nebraska). But in other respects, 1972 was pretty much a universal rejection of McGovern. McGovern lost by at least 5% or more in 49 states, and in 45 states (all except for Massachusetts, Minnesota, Rhode Island, Wisconsin, and South Dakota), he lost by double digits. He won the fewest number of counties of any major-party presidential nominee since the Civil War.
Logged
morgankingsley
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,018
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 13, 2019, 07:56:16 PM »


The south was way too brutal to McGovern to count. He got like -I think- 19 percent in Mississippi

McGovern lost Mississippi 78.20-19.63%. Mississippi actually went more strongly for Nixon than Washington D.C. went for McGovern. And Nixon got more than 70% of the vote in Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and Florida as well (in addition to Oklahoma and Nebraska). But in other respects, 1972 was pretty much a universal rejection of McGovern. McGovern lost by at least 5% or more in 49 states, and in 45 states (all except for Massachusetts, Minnesota, Rhode Island, Wisconsin, and South Dakota), he lost by double digits. He won the fewest number of counties of any major-party presidential nominee since the Civil War.

Yeah, which makes McGovern's margin in Massachusetts the biggest wonder of my life
Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,937
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 13, 2019, 08:11:47 PM »


The south was way too brutal to McGovern to count. He got like -I think- 19 percent in Mississippi

McGovern lost Mississippi 78.20-19.63%. Mississippi actually went more strongly for Nixon than Washington D.C. went for McGovern. And Nixon got more than 70% of the vote in Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and Florida as well (in addition to Oklahoma and Nebraska). But in other respects, 1972 was pretty much a universal rejection of McGovern. McGovern lost by at least 5% or more in 49 states, and in 45 states (all except for Massachusetts, Minnesota, Rhode Island, Wisconsin, and South Dakota), he lost by double digits. He won the fewest number of counties of any major-party presidential nominee since the Civil War.

Yeah, which makes McGovern's margin in Massachusetts the biggest wonder of my life

That's true. An interesting trivia fact is that Massachusetts is the only state that never voted for Nixon, in any of the three presidential elections in which he was a candidate. I imagine that Kennedy nostalgia was the major factor that kept him from winning the state in 1972, and of course, the state had a large number of college students opposed to Vietnam. Busing also hadn't hit the state yet, and was arguably a factor in Reagan's later victories there.
Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,937
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: June 06, 2020, 11:48:25 PM »

Revisiting this, and after having watched the NBC News election coverage of the 1984 landslide, I am convinced that it had the most uniform state-by-state results. Again, it is astounding to me the number of states where Reagan's percentage of the vote was very similar (in the low 60s range). Also, throughout most of the night, his popular vote lead over Mondale was 59-41%, which of course, ended up being the final margin.
Logged
Mr. Smith
MormDem
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 33,072
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: June 07, 2020, 06:40:58 PM »

1960 easily...with the lone exception of Mississippi and it's unpledged slate.
Logged
Battista Minola 1616
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,279
Vatican City State


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -1.57

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: June 23, 2020, 10:46:33 AM »

In 1960, 18 states went Democratic by less than 7.7% and 13 went Republican by less than 7.7%
In 1976, 18 states went Republican by less than 7.7% and 13 went Democratic by less than 7.7%
In both years on both sides (although less so for Nixon '60), there was a sizable gap between the state that voted Dem (or Rep) by 7 something points and the next state which voted more Dem (or Rep).

1992 had even smaller margins across the board but doesn't fit this well because of the variability of the Perot vote.

For comparison, in 2000 there were 19 states decided by less than 7.7%. In 2004, there were 16 such states. In 2016, just 13!
Logged
TDAS04
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,463
Bhutan


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: June 23, 2020, 12:00:56 PM »

1960 easily...with the lone exception of Mississippi and it's unpledged slate.

Fun fact: Nixon and Kennedy each carried at least one county in every state.
Logged
Battista Minola 1616
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,279
Vatican City State


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -1.57

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: June 24, 2020, 12:10:23 PM »

1960 easily...with the lone exception of Mississippi and it's unpledged slate.

Fun fact: Nixon and Kennedy each carried at least one county in every state.

Yeah, that's the only presidential election in history where it happened, so in some sense 1960 had the broadest playing field for both sides ever.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.045 seconds with 12 queries.