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September 15, 2019, 11:01:30 am
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  Which presidential election had the most uniform state by state results?
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Author Topic: Which presidential election had the most uniform state by state results?  (Read 241 times)
Calthrina950
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« on: September 11, 2019, 09:29:09 pm »

The question is as in the title. For me, it is a tie between 1984 and 1988, as Reagan's landslide over Mondale was very widespread (and he obtained very similar percentages throughout a broad swath of the country), while Bush's victory over Dukakis was also spread widely.

Discuss below.
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marty
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« Reply #1 on: September 11, 2019, 10:01:04 pm »

Disagree on 1988. There was a definite difference in margin in the midwest/plains compared to elsewhere.
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DINGO Joe stands on Sanchez
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« Reply #2 on: September 12, 2019, 12:13:09 am »

I was always struck by how narrow the margins were in the 1976 election all over the map.  Sure there were blowouts like GA and Utah, but every region had 51-49 states all over the place.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #3 on: September 12, 2019, 01:21:42 am »

Here is 1984:
                               
https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-groups-voted-1984


Outside the North East it was very uniform


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Calthrina950
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« Reply #4 on: September 12, 2019, 03:43:21 pm »

Disagree on 1988. There was a definite difference in margin in the midwest/plains compared to elsewhere.

I can see your point, given how Dukakis performed better than his national average in South Dakota and Montana, won Iowa by a surprisingly wide margin, and of course, also carried Minnesota and Wisconsin. He also did better than his national average in Illinois and in Missouri, coming within 2-4% of carrying both states. But all of this was due to the farm crisis that was a major concern at the time. And even then, I would still argue that 1988 was uniform. There were a substantial number of close states across the country.

Besides the ones that I just mentioned, Washington, Oregon, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Vermont, West Virginia, and Connecticut were all within single digits that year. Bush's victories throughout the South were uniform, with him averaging around 59-60% of the vote. Nowhere did he get lower than 44% (Rhode Island) or higher than 66% (Utah). Dukakis's percentages ranged between 32% (Utah) and 56% (Rhode Island), not counting D.C.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #5 on: September 13, 2019, 06:01:03 pm »

What about 1972?
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #6 on: September 13, 2019, 07:00:25 pm »


The south was way too brutal to McGovern to count. He got like -I think- 19 percent in Mississippi
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #7 on: September 13, 2019, 07:48:25 pm »
« Edited: September 13, 2019, 07:52:44 pm by Calthrina950 »


The south was way too brutal to McGovern to count. He got like -I think- 19 percent in Mississippi

McGovern lost Mississippi 78.20-19.63%. Mississippi actually went more strongly for Nixon than Washington D.C. went for McGovern. And Nixon got more than 70% of the vote in Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and Florida as well (in addition to Oklahoma and Nebraska). But in other respects, 1972 was pretty much a universal rejection of McGovern. McGovern lost by at least 5% or more in 49 states, and in 45 states (all except for Massachusetts, Minnesota, Rhode Island, Wisconsin, and South Dakota), he lost by double digits. He won the fewest number of counties of any major-party presidential nominee since the Civil War.
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #8 on: September 13, 2019, 07:56:16 pm »


The south was way too brutal to McGovern to count. He got like -I think- 19 percent in Mississippi

McGovern lost Mississippi 78.20-19.63%. Mississippi actually went more strongly for Nixon than Washington D.C. went for McGovern. And Nixon got more than 70% of the vote in Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and Florida as well (in addition to Oklahoma and Nebraska). But in other respects, 1972 was pretty much a universal rejection of McGovern. McGovern lost by at least 5% or more in 49 states, and in 45 states (all except for Massachusetts, Minnesota, Rhode Island, Wisconsin, and South Dakota), he lost by double digits. He won the fewest number of counties of any major-party presidential nominee since the Civil War.

Yeah, which makes McGovern's margin in Massachusetts the biggest wonder of my life
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #9 on: September 13, 2019, 08:11:47 pm »


The south was way too brutal to McGovern to count. He got like -I think- 19 percent in Mississippi

McGovern lost Mississippi 78.20-19.63%. Mississippi actually went more strongly for Nixon than Washington D.C. went for McGovern. And Nixon got more than 70% of the vote in Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and Florida as well (in addition to Oklahoma and Nebraska). But in other respects, 1972 was pretty much a universal rejection of McGovern. McGovern lost by at least 5% or more in 49 states, and in 45 states (all except for Massachusetts, Minnesota, Rhode Island, Wisconsin, and South Dakota), he lost by double digits. He won the fewest number of counties of any major-party presidential nominee since the Civil War.

Yeah, which makes McGovern's margin in Massachusetts the biggest wonder of my life

That's true. An interesting trivia fact is that Massachusetts is the only state that never voted for Nixon, in any of the three presidential elections in which he was a candidate. I imagine that Kennedy nostalgia was the major factor that kept him from winning the state in 1972, and of course, the state had a large number of college students opposed to Vietnam. Busing also hadn't hit the state yet, and was arguably a factor in Reagan's later victories there.
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