freepcrusher
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Posts: 3,832
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« on: September 12, 2019, 12:14:36 AM » |
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I have to admit to not reading the book. How well do you think the book has aged? I feel like the argument that college educated whites and increasing minority populations would help the democratic party win more elections is correct - but they didn't realize how much of an effect it would have on other elements within the party.
Like it probably had to do with Obama being in the whitehouse and the headwinds therefore not being in our favor - but it felt like the period from 2010-2016 was pretty blackpilling for the democrats with the rural areas continuing to shift R and the suburban trend mostly stabilizing.
After Trump won, I sort of found it interesting to see how future democratic majorities would be built. I kind of feel like the path the democratic victory in 2018 was akin to the scene in a movie where there's a giant canyon separating two peaks and a bunch of warriors are chasing you and you basically have to gamble and go off the ramp at full speed and hope you make it to the other side. Or another metaphor is basically that the opposing team is stacking eight dudes "in the box" and you basically have to pass every down and hope it works.
I kind of feel like the whole "coalition of the ascendent" thing was akin to a luxury and not a necessity. It was something that would help you win - but not something you would depend on wholly. It seems like the coalition of the ascendent thing involved getting numbers amongst certain demographics in 2018 that Judis and Texeira would have found unthinkable when they were writing the book 15+ years ago. Another analogy is an investigator becoming too reliant on forensics and lacking in old fashioned police work.
But is being so heavily dependent on certain groups sustainable? There's also the fact that Trump was a uniquely bad fit for suburban areas and places in general that rely on the creative class. If there was a president Kasich or Rubio - would dems have had a pathway to 218? This is to say nothing of the path to a senate majority either.
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