Tunisian Presidential Elecion - 15 September

[Tender Branson]

This is today (1st round).

There are ca. 30 candidates running, only 1 of them is a woman and she's polling below 1%.

The frontrunner is an imprisoned business and TV guy, a "Tunisian Berlusconi".

Link

[Keep Calm and ...]

Exit Polls

Nabil Karoui : 19,3 %
Kais Saied : 16,5 %
Youssef Chahed : 14,9 %
Abdelfattah Mourou : 12,4 %
Abdelkarim Zebidi : 9,8 %
Med abbou : 5,6%
Sondage à la sortie des bureaux de vote.

https://twitter.com/Najetmiled/status/1173305856563253248


Sigma Conseil / Elhiwar Ettounsi

Kais Saied: 19.5%
Nabil Karoui: 15.5%
Abdelfattah Mourou: 11.0%
Abdelkrim Zbidi: 9.4%
Youssef Chahed: 7.5%
Safi Said: 7.4%

https://twitter.com/sh_grewal/status/1173309093609660417


Emrhod Consulting / Attessia:

Kais Saied 18.95 %
Nebil Karoui 15.26%
Mourou 12.59
Zbidi 9.9
Cahed 8.71
Safi Said 7.66

https://twitter.com/KBayrem/status/1173310920136765440
https://twitter.com/Toun2011/status/1173312835226611713

[Estrella]

A short Who is Who:

- Nabil Karoui (In the Heart of Tunisia) - the aforementioned jailed Tunisian Berlusconi, co-founder of late president Essebsi's secular Nidaa Tounes party.

- Kaïs Saïed (independent) - lawyer, a conservative (but apparently not Islamist?) and tough-on-crime populist, allegedly "focusing on young voters"

- Youssef Chahed (Long Live Tunisia) - agronomist, another ex-Nidaa Tounes guy, secular nationalist, somewhat lefty-ish?

- Abdelfattah Mourou (Ennahda) - lawyer and cleric, the Islamist candidate, but rather moderate (think Muslim Brotherhood, not Salafists)

- Abdelkarim Zbidi (supported by Afek Tounes and Nidaa Tounes, but apparently not the official candidate?) - doctor, secularist

- Safi Said (independent) - somehow nobody knows anything about him ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Seriously, there's ridiculoulously little info available about this election, even with Arabic+Google Translate, but FranceInfo Afrique has a liveblog thingy going on at least

[Foucaulf]

A short Who is Who:

- Nabil Karoui (In the Heart of Tunisia) - the aforementioned jailed Tunisian Berlusconi, co-founder of late president Essebsi's secular Nidaa Tounes party.

- Kaïs Saïed (independent) - lawyer, a conservative (but apparently not Islamist?) and tough-on-crime populist, allegedly "focusing on young voters"

- Youssef Chahed (Long Live Tunisia) - agronomist, another ex-Nidaa Tounes guy, secular nationalist, somewhat lefty-ish?

- Abdelfattah Mourou (Ennahda) - lawyer and cleric, the Islamist candidate, but rather moderate (think Muslim Brotherhood, not Salafists)

- Abdelkarim Zbidi (supported by Afek Tounes and Nidaa Tounes, but apparently not the official candidate?) - doctor, secularist

- Safi Said (independent) - somehow nobody knows anything about him ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Seriously, there's ridiculoulously little info available about this election, even with Arabic+Google Translate, but FranceInfo Afrique has a liveblog thingy going on at least

Never fear, I'm here to force-feed Tunisia info into you whether you like it or not. You can see my previous posts on Tunisian political culture here, and scroll from the bottom up.

I adapt a classification of all 26(!) candidates from my coverage of the 2014 race.

THE REMAINS OF NIDAA TOUNES
The former president, Beji Caid Essebsi, amassed a broad coalition of businessmen, old regime types and anti-Islamists to form the Nidaa Tounes party and take the presidency. Then the party became roiled in a leadership succession struggle while policymaking moved more and more toward the incumbent PM, Yousef Chahed. Then Essebsi died, which precipitated the whole thing. The following candidates were active in Nidaa Tounes and now running under various stripes:

Nabil Karoui, one of the richest Tunisians, Ben Ali-era oligarch and fixer, owner of Tunisia's Nessma TV chain and now convict on corruption charges.
Selma Elloumi, businesswoman, sister of Nidaa backer Faouzi Elloumi, led a factional revolt against BCE's son, party leader Hafedh Caid Essebsi.
Mohsen Marzouk, Nidaa Tounes founder and the first one to leave the party when Hafedh Essebsi took over the leadership.
Néji Jalloul, former education minister and pro-Hafedh Nidaa leader.
Abdelkarim Zbidi, Doctor and twice defense minister in post-revolutionary Tunisia, becoming a popular political figure who's staunchly anti-Islamist and catching remnants of Nidaa Tounes on his coattails.
Youssef Chahed, current PM of Tunisia who became more and more of his own man when faced against Essebsi. Well-funded and the public face of the coalition government who at least takes a stand on corruption and oligarchy.

ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT OUTSIDERS
Pundits and politicians not part of the current parliament, and therefore gets to rail against the lack of economic progress under the current Nidaa-Ennahda grand coalition.
Kais Saied, law professor and frequent TV pundit who is known for his erudite but reactionary attitude. Over the years he has been memed as the taciturn but honest "Robocop" of political society.
Mohamed Abbou, leader of the Democratic Current party.
Abir Moussi, local councillor, frequent TV pundit and unapologetically nostalgic for the Ben Ali regime
Hamma Hammami, former political prisoner and Tunisia's best known communist, though harkens to a style that is pan-Arabist and fiercely anti-Islamist.
Mongi Rahoui, the other anti-Islamist leftist candidate running following a leadership dispute with Hammami.

FORMER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS
Mehdi Jomaa, former interim Prime Minister leading up to the 2014 elections.
Saïd Aïdi, former health minister.
Omar Mansour, Tunis judge and former justice minister.
Elyes Fakhfakh, former finance minister during the 2011-4 Troika government.
Abid Briki, former civil services minister.

ENNAHDA-AFFILIATED
Tunisia's most organized party, the Islamist/"Muslim Democratic" Ennahda, has a candidate in parliamentary speaker Abdelfattah Mourou. But there are others who contest for votes from a base of religious Tunisians suspicious of any "secular/old regime" candidate.
Hamadi Jebali, former PM during the 2011-4 Troika government.
Moncef Marzouki, former President during the 2011-4 Troika government.
Seifeddine Makhlouf, lawyer known for providing defense to accused jihadist terrorists.
Hatem Boulabiar, businessman, formerly part of the Ennahda executive.

THE BUSINESSMEN
Some tycoons are still running this time, but Karoui is clearly the elephant in the room.

Hechmi Hamdi, British-Tunisian press mogul.
Slim Riahi, Tunisian-Libyan oil baron, now in exile fleeing corruption charges
Mohamed Seghaïer Nouri, TV network owner

THE CIVIC OPPOSITION
Lotfi Mraïhi, writer and playwright.
Safi Saïd, journalist, novelist and former presidential candidate. A frequent pundit, he is also a big believer in direct democracy.

[😥]

Who will win second round? Karoui or Saïed?

[Beagle]

The second round was today and resulted in an absolute landslide for Kais Saied - 72.5% according to one pollster (Emrhod), 76.9% according to another (Sigma).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Talk about Evil vs Evil. Saied was probably the lesser of the two, thankfully.

[bigic]

What about the legislative election? There was one between the two rounds of the presidential election, and AFAIK there is still no coalition in sight.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Talk about Evil vs Evil. Saied was probably the lesser of the two, thankfully.

Despite this, Tunisian democratic transformation is still a very impressive story.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What about the legislative election? There was one between the two rounds of the presidential election, and AFAIK there is still no coalition in sight.

Results are as follows:

Ennahda - 52 (-17)

Qalb Tounes [Karoi's party] - 38 (new)

Democratic Current/Tayyar [effective successor to Congress of the Republic] - 22 (+19)

Dignity Coalition/Karama [Salafist group run by Seifeddine Makhlouf] 21 (new)

Free Destourian Party [old regime hardliners, ultra secularist] 17 (+17)

People's Movement [Arab-Nationalist lefties who were in coalition with the broad left last time] 16 (+13)

Tahya Tounes [PM Chahed's party] - 14 (new)

Everyone else in single digits - Machrouu Tounes on 4, Nida Tounes down to 3 (I assume its remaining voters hadn't realized Essebsi died), a small Islamist Party led by a formerly Quebec based (now deported) rent-a-quote controversial  imam on 3, an old cartetaker PM's party on 3, another small liberal party with 3, Afek Tounes on 2 and a few other one seaters and indies, including the first seat for the Tunsisian Greens and the last spurts for Current of Love (Hechmi Hamdi's party) and last elections' breakout lefties the Popular Front.

If Ennahda wanted it they could start with Ennahda + Tayyar + Karama, which would take them close to the majority (95) without needing any of the oligarch parties (and of course Congress of the Republic did work with the Islamists before): that's probably the most likely basis for a government at this point, although Tayyar are making moves to suggest they don't want to become Islamist fall guys.  I suppose one of the benefits to this fragmented parliament is that there's less forced awkward grand coalitions.

[Foucaulf]

If Ennahda wanted it they could start with Ennahda + Tayyar + Karama, which would take them close to the majority (95) without needing any of the oligarch parties (and of course Congress of the Republic did work with the Islamists before): that's probably the most likely basis for a government at this point, although Tayyar are making moves to suggest they don't want to become Islamist fall guys.  I suppose one of the benefits to this fragmented parliament is that there's less forced awkward grand coalitions.

I can explain the coalition logic here.

Officially ruled out a coalition with Ennahda
Free Destourian Party (PDL) - I mean, duh.
People's Movement - Ditto.

Officially ruled out a coalition with Qalb Tounes
Dignity Coalition (Karama)

Mostly ruled out a coalition with Ennahda and Qalb Tounes
Democratic Movement (Tayyar) - The party has no interest in joining government if they play second fiddle to an existing, "oligarchical" party. Both Ennahda and Qalb Tounes have members who supported the 2015 amnesty bill for old regime officials, so that is their original sin. However, they replaced total refusal with a cheeky offer that they'll join if and only if they control the ministries of interior, justice and administrative reforms. No one's gonna give them that, so they are forming a parliamentary group with the People's Movement.

How many seats can an Ennahda-led govt hold excluding those parties that ruled out a coalition and without Qalb Tounes? Counting the parties definitely in opposition, we get 38+17+16=71 seats, or 93 seats if you include Tayyar. With minor parties and independents, we're talking more like 100 MPs who oppose Ennahda in government on principle. However, at this point Ennahda must lead a coalition that has both Karama (Islamists and anti-foreigner) with the less oligarchical elements of Nidaa Tounes (definitely not anti-foreigner at least).

How many seats can a Qalb Tounes-led govt hold excluding those parties that ruled out a coalition and without Ennahda? Parties in opposition of this have 52+21=73 seats, or 95 seats if you include Tayyar. In practice, this'll be more like 120 seats because there's a snowball's chance in hell that the People's Movement would support not just an oligarchical party, but a party whose candidate was decimated in the presidential race. So that's not happening period.

[Simfan34]

How close is Kais to Ennadha? Or is he one of those non-FM related Muslims with inscrutable ties to the UAE?

[Foucaulf]

How close is Kais to Ennadha? Or is he one of those non-FM related Muslims with inscrutable ties to the UAE?

Very little. I think a convenient but incorrect narrative is that Saied fits into the rest of ME politics, where any movement has shadowy forces behind them. Of course, there are Tunisians who think Saied forged some deal with Ennahda, but given how difficult it is for that leading Islamist party to form a government right now it's not like Ennahda can honor its side of the bargain.

Honestly let's just apply Occam's razor here and observe:

1) Saied is a very weird person, and it's easy to trust he's an outsider politician because of his weirdness. He refused to campaign this whole cycle because of his ideological opposition to a party-based system of government. He speaks Classical Arabic on TV but is warm in person. On the policies that he actually is responsible for as President (Foreign Policy), he is critical of foreign, international institutions imposing austerity on the country. Pretty inoffensive position, honestly!

2) Saied's most interesting support base aren't Ennahda/Islamist voters, but apathetic youth. They turned out for him in the second round like they haven't for any of the other geriatric parties. Case in point:

https://twitter.com/sh_grewal/status/1183469882857459712

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Should be worth noting that due to the genuine distrust of Islamists in recent years in Tunisia (well, it always existed, but recent years haven't improved their reputation), Ennahda are desperate to shed the label, abandoning its proselytizing wing a few years ago, bringing in more secular looking and professional candidates and self-describing as merely a conservative party. (Which led to the amusing situation in the Tunis mayoral elections where a particularly brain-genius member of the secular opposition thought it would be a good idea to criticize the female Ennahda candidate because she wouldn't be able to lead a mosque in prayer). The party itself is in a demographic crisis: although it gets good results among people who came of age during the dictatorship, new voters don't care for them; they also don't get great results with the pious as they would have hoped:

“The majority of Ennahda’s voters are religiously observant people. Some of them are Salafists, of course. We estimate that only 10 percent of Salafists vote for us, and their proportion is decreasing because of the pragmatic choices made by Ennahda since 2014. However, it’s obvious that many conservative people don’t vote for us. They consider that Ennahda is too closed, too rigid. Only one-third of the conservative electorate votes for us. This is our big problem.”

So there's a lot of identity issues within the party at the moment. Should they simply be a UTJ style Identity Group, that harvests votes from religious blocs in exchange for subsidies for madrasas and more alcohol free beaches? How much should they challenge the established order (that they themselves have created)? How can they regain their old position as the champions of the disaffected against the corrupt elite (good example of this was when they voted down a tax on imported alcoholic drinks, which was seen as a massive sop to the secular elite)? Should they go down the economic populist route as they once did? Did opening up the their lists to independents actually broaden its reach, or did it allow a whole bunch of careerisrs in?

[Simfan34]

Said does seem very strange, but what's even more strange is that he seems utterly devoid of charisma yet has been called a "man of the people". What odds do his political ideas (indirect elections, executions) have of going anywhere, without a party? What chance does he have of attaining a modicum of success during his mandate?