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  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  Can A O C win MI, PA, WI?
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Author Topic: Can A O C win MI, PA, WI?  (Read 581 times)
bronz4141
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« on: September 15, 2019, 07:24:25 pm »

Can A O C win Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin if she ever runs?
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Does the title even matter?
tara gilesbie
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« Reply #1 on: September 15, 2019, 08:13:27 pm »

No, but not for the reasons the usual suspects give.
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Interlocutor
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« Reply #2 on: September 15, 2019, 09:04:02 pm »
« Edited: September 16, 2019, 03:22:04 am by Interlocutor »

More interesting question is "Can Tlaib win MI, PA, WI?"
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538Electoral
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« Reply #3 on: September 15, 2019, 09:27:35 pm »

No as the Rust Belt probably wouldn't be in favor of socialism. If anything, In 2028 an AOC vs Generic Republican map would probably lead to about the same map as 2016.
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DeSantis2024
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« Reply #4 on: September 16, 2019, 07:15:16 pm »

No as the Rust Belt probably wouldn't be in favor of socialism. If anything, In 2028 an AOC vs Generic Republican map would probably lead to about the same map as 2016.
NH,ME,MN flip
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #5 on: September 17, 2019, 09:54:59 pm »

Dems will never nominate someone whom is a lightning rod like Hilary or Debbie Wasserman-schultz or AOC that would lose WI, MI or PA, again.
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Staunch anti-Trump Dem for Trump bcuz SoCiAlIsM
xingkerui
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« Reply #6 on: September 17, 2019, 09:57:10 pm »

Definitely.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #7 on: September 18, 2019, 12:15:40 am »

Lol no
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AN63093
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« Reply #8 on: September 18, 2019, 08:07:25 am »

Dems will never nominate someone whom is a lightning rod like Hilary or Debbie Wasserman-schultz or AOC that would lose WI, MI or PA, again.

This is assuming that any of those states are necessary for the Dems' path to the White House in the future.  They may be (sorta) now, but that's not necessarily the case in 20, 30 years, etc.  Just like OH isn't really part of the Dems' path anymore.


Anyways, the answer to the question is no, at least given their current demographics, but that probably doesn't matter so much to the Dems.  Their future coalition is not going to be particularly dependent on the Rust Belt.  That is, unless the parties completely reverse their current trends.
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Councilor Gracile
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« Reply #9 on: September 18, 2019, 11:17:38 am »

It's possible, but I think it will depend on the context of the election. For example, AOC is probably more likely to win MI/PA/WI in the midst of an economic crisis/recession under a Republican president.
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sg0508
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« Reply #10 on: September 21, 2019, 07:41:01 am »

Today, probably not, but never say never, especially as the old whites continue to die and the Millennials an Gen Z voters get more and more powerful in the electorate.

Remember that Millennials and Gen Y have far less loyalty to capitalism and its past than more traditional Democrats.
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538Electoral
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« Reply #11 on: September 25, 2019, 01:18:14 pm »

More interesting question is "Can Tlaib win MI, PA, WI?"

MI perhaps, WI and PA probably not.
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Statilius the Epicurean
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« Reply #12 on: September 25, 2019, 05:38:39 pm »

Imagine in the 90s speculating whether a Democratic black man could win IN, VA and NC.
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Pro-Life Single Issue Voter
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« Reply #13 on: September 25, 2019, 06:18:19 pm »

The more interesting question is whether she could even win statewide office in New York in a neutral year
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slothdem
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« Reply #14 on: September 27, 2019, 09:56:27 am »

Of course she could win all three of these states, depending on the political environment and strength of her opponent.

The more interesting question is whether she could even win statewide office in New York in a neutral year

Is this a joke? AOC vs any Republican in NY statewide is Safe D in a neutral year. No possible Republican candidate could keep her below a double digit win. In a neutral year even DeBlasio would carry the state.
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