Polls

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Do I have to pay to take the battleground poll?

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Bush is goin to lose the election by a landslide.  Trust me. hehe.  I'm a republican, but I cant stand bush.  He grew up with a silver spoon and had an easy life.  He was a deserter to.  Bush has gotten away with everything easy.  Bush is a moron also.  

One word for you....Troll.

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The situation with the cell phones may well be resolved soon. A national cell phone book is in the works listing all cell phone numbers nationwide.

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The situation with the cell phones may well be resolved soon. A national cell phone book is in the works listing all cell phone numbers nationwide.

The issue is not availability - it is legal.

It is ILLEGAL under federal law for a polling firm to make a call to a line that may be charged for the call (ie many cell phones) We just simply are no allowed to call cell phones under current law.

NAPOR (the professional association for pollsters) is trying to get the big cell companies to try to find a fix (ie have the polling firm pay for the call) but till then the issue is legal, not technical.

Get me called and polled! I'd love to do a poll sometime! JeffHokie@msn.com if you have any way to get me on.

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Vorlon. Why doesnt some rich financier come up with the funds to have a 500,000 person sample? With todays modern technology that would be more then possible. Put some of those telemarkters who lost their jobs because they have been outsourced to work!


Vorlon, that wasn't a joke. It's a serious question.

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But a 500k person poll would give you a better idea of how the people actually felt, right? Much better then a 800 person poll. Meaning, I would put my faith in a 500k person poll more then a 800 person poll.

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Thanks for the info. I am not to good at math but I get the jist of what you are saying.

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Polling firms uses different standards (like the questionable Zogby internet polls or the current LA Times un-weighted poll), which makes it difficult to compare them or decide which will be most reflective of the voters opinions.
 I think the Rasmussen daily polls (really three day polls released each day) maybe one of the most useful.  Every day he uses the same methodology, polls the same number of voters, applies the same weighting.  Thus although his absolute numbers may or may not be correct, any real change in the voters preferences from Bush to Kerry or vice versa should be very reliably detected by him.
The amazing thing is that since early March, there has been no significant change, its been a statistical dead heat:  on any given day Bush and Kerry bounce around 44-47%.  There is no evidence that any of the advertising, campaigning, or Iraq events have substantially changed either candidate’s support.  For June Bush has been ahead on 4 days, Kerry on 3, and both tied on 5 days.
This poll is updated every day at noon:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

I watch it every day and it appears that the undecideds are becoming decided. This is the second day in a row its been Bush 47 Kerry 44. Bush is about to break out IMHO and take off with it. Barring another scandal.

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Polling firms uses different standards (like the questionable Zogby internet polls or the current LA Times un-weighted poll), which makes it difficult to compare them or decide which will be most reflective of the voters opinions.
 I think the Rasmussen daily polls (really three day polls released each day) maybe one of the most useful.  Every day he uses the same methodology, polls the same number of voters, applies the same weighting.  Thus although his absolute numbers may or may not be correct, any real change in the voters preferences from Bush to Kerry or vice versa should be very reliably detected by him.
The amazing thing is that since early March, there has been no significant change, its been a statistical dead heat:  on any given day Bush and Kerry bounce around 44-47%.  There is no evidence that any of the advertising, campaigning, or Iraq events have substantially changed either candidate’s support.  For June Bush has been ahead on 4 days, Kerry on 3, and both tied on 5 days.
This poll is updated every day at noon:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

I watch it every day and it appears that the undecideds are becoming decided. This is the second day in a row its been Bush 47 Kerry 44. Bush is about to break out IMHO and take off with it. Barring another scandal.

The interesting feature is that the preference poll is also clearly lining up with improved polling for Bush on other masures - Job approval, foreign policy, and the economy. If all these hold for the rest of the month that would bode well for Bush.

I predict a Bush runaway after the Democrat conventions. My below map will probably show more red on it then I have now. A landslide is still possible.

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I watch it every day and it appears that the undecideds are becoming decided. This is the second day in a row its been Bush 47 Kerry 44. Bush is about to break out IMHO and take off with it. Barring another scandal.

StatesRights, I'm sure you already noticed this, but today Kerry pulled back into the lead on Rasmussen.  So much for your theory.

My theory is not dead. Some one will break out in 2-3 more months.