Polls

[khirkhib]

Nevada and New Mexico well that's just gravy.  If Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia all go Kerry. The west coast might just go out and party.  I started a topic on how the media calling the states might affect votes on the west coast.

[khirkhib]

FOX poll out has a lot of interesting questions being asked:
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,120492,00.html

Wow.  Fox News has Kerry ahead +5 in battleground states the same week that the most popular republican president of the 20th century dies.  That is impressive.

Also check out http://www.newdem.org/newmajoritycoalition/ They have Kerry +8 points in battleground states.

[khirkhib]

The Poll map is better but it still needs to be improved.  It states that the toss up, slight or lean status of each state is determined by the average of the last three polls.  Slight is between 2-5% and lean over 5%.  Oregon, Iowa and New Hampshire though are all labeled as toss-up states now though Kerry has an averaged lead of 2.6 in Oregon, 2.3 in Iowa, and 3.3 in NH (if you counted the Zogby poll).  

I feel that there has been more than 2 polls out of Nevada.  Looks like you didn't include any of Zogby's last three there because if you had Kerry would have the average lead of 1.6 and the state would be a toss up.  Even if you had just averaged Zogby's last three and put it against the Mason Dixon and  even if you just used Zogby's most recent which had Bush at a 2.5 lead the average would be 4.8 and make the state just slight Bush Lead. Which seems to make sence since the poll that is pushing the three, the Mason Dixon, gave bush an 11 point lead but was done back in March, doesn't seem to be a timely measure.

The other toss ups checked out.  It doesn't seem like all the polls that are being put out are being integrated into the equation either.  What are one of those good poll compilation sites?  It'd be nice to see.    ISome polls seem to get entered in really quicky and others not at all.  Just trying to keep it honest.

[khirkhib]

Well in doesn't seem right that both Survey USA polls be used in Iowa when the only one that gives Bush a lead is the hypotetical, if Vilsack was president this is not the case and unlikely and with out that survey Kerry would have all three wins and a 4.3 averaged advantage.  You could count this survey if Kerry did pick Vilsack.

And in Florida Bush did not win all of the last three but he is still painted as lean there.  It still seems somewhat arbitrary which survey's are counted and which are not and the system should be standardized so it will be honest.  

In Dale's Electoral College Breakdown the blogger decides off the cuff if he will consider the survey or not.  He generally doesn't change the Surveys in Kerry's favor.  http://home.comcast.net/~gerrydal/

Where as www.electionprojection.com showed Kerry with a huge lead and winning Missouri and Arizona etc and than 2 weeks Bush took back a big lead and not jut becauseof the Regan funeral but because the blogger had changed the calculation that he had been using and when more in favor of state polls.  Just trying to keep things honest here.

Here is one site I remembered for pollig info.  www.realclearpolitics.com.  
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Your right it is www.electionprojection.com

The complaint still stands though, but what are the other best poll and projection sites that people use.

[khirkhib]

Do you know the rules of the polling section for sure or you explaining your observations of them.

[khirkhib]

I just wanted to express my joy that Oregon is no longer a toss-up in the polling section.  Yeah.