Clinton-Trump Counties?

[Yellowhammer]

What are some of the counties most likely to flip from Clinton to Trump? A few that come to mind are:

Washington, GA
Winnebago, IL
Waldo, ME
Muskegon, MI
Clinton, NY
Pasquotank, NC
Lorain, OH
Dillon, SC

[Frenchrepublican]

There are probably two kinds of Clinton counties which could flip to Trump :
-some heavily white working class counties in the Midwest which have trended toward republicans
-some rural counties in the South where the black population is either stagnant or declining.

Georgia
Baldwin county
Burke county
Sumter county
Washington county

Kemp won Washington and Burke counties in 2018

Ohio
Mahoning county (unlikely)
Lorain county

Texas
Kleberg county
Kenedy county
Jim Wells county

Mississippi
Pike county
Oktibbeha county

Alabama
Russell county

South Carolina
Clarendon county
Dillon county

North Carolina
Pasquotank county

Michigan
Muskegon county (unlikely)

Wisconsin
Green county (unlikely)

Arkansas
Desha county

Minnesota
Carlton county
Lake county

New York
Clinton county (unlikely)

Illinois
Winnebago county
Peoria county

Pennsylvania
Monroe county

Indiana
St Joseph county (unlikely)

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

Fort Bend in Texas

[Smash255]

Fort Bend in Texas

LOL no

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Fort Bend in Texas

I’m going to give you the benefit of the doubt that this was a joke.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Fort Bend in Texas

Man I would love to see this just so TrendsareReal and IceSPear could get #TRIGGERED

And I would like to see Andy Beshear win, but neither of those will happen.

[H. Ross Peron]

Those, plus Stanilasus/Fresno in CA

Why would Trump win Stanislaus and Fresno?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I don't know, but I'm not sure that 2020 will simply be a continuation of the 2016 trends, like so many on here seem to be taking for granted.  Each election usually changes them in some way (granted, it's more extreme without an incumbent, but it will still happen).

[Politician]

After thinking about this I've decided to update my list

Tossup or better for Trump
Stanilasus CA
Alamosa CO
Baldwin/Burke/Sumter/Washington GA
Winnebago IL
St. Joseph IN
Waldo ME
Muskegon MI
Oktihebba/Pike MS
Douglas/Lancaster NE
Pasquotank NC
Lorain OH
Monroe PA
Dillon SC
Kennedy TX
Salt Lake UT
Staunton City VA
Clark WA

Lean D
Russell AL
Desha AR
Fresno/Riverside/Lake/Nevada CA
Tolland CT
Latah ID
Peoria/Jackson IL
Scott IA
Iberville/St. James LA
Lincoln/York ME
Anne Arundel MD
Marquette MI
Carlton/Lake/Olmsted/Dakota/Washington MN
Gallatin MT
Washoe NV
Clinton/Columbia/Dutchess NY
Watuaga NC
Mahoning OH
Lackawanna/Lehigh/Bucks/Dauphin/Centre PA
Kleberg TX
Montgomery/Prince Edward VA
Whitman WA
Green WI

Likely D
Marengo AL
St. Francis/Crittenden AR
San Luis Opisbo/Orange CA
Clear Creek/Gilpin/Larimer CO
Middlesex CT
Hillsborough FL
Cobb/Newton GA
Will/Rock Island/St. Clair/DeKalb IL
Blackhawk IA
Sagahadoc/Hancock ME
Plymouth MA
Boone MO
Big Horn MT
Merrimack NH
Atlantic/Cumberland NJ
Nassau/Rockland/Erie NY
Wilson/Pitt NC
Clatsop/Clackamas OR
Sumter SC
Haywood TN
Jim Wells/Val Verde/Reeves TX
Summit UT
Pierce/Skagit WA
Portage WI

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

nevada co ca

orange co ca

fresno co ca

riverside co ca

san Luis Obispo co ca

stanislaus co ca

clackamas co or

bernalillo co nm

jefferson co co

adams co co

arapahoe co co

broomfield co co

Larimer co co

douglas co ne

lancaster co ne

fort bend co tx

dakota co mn

washington co mn

jefferson co al

douglas co ga

cobb co ga

gwinnett co ga

henry co ga

newton co ga

orange co fl

osceola co fl

miami dade co fl

hillsborough co fl

charleston co sc

fayette co ky

jefferson co ky

travis co tx

marion co in

hamilton co oh

oakland co mi

fairfax co va

loudoun co va

pwc co va

franklin co oh

dupage co il

dekalb co il

kane co il

will co il

lake co il

albemarle co va

henrico co va

chester co pa

bucks co pa

montgomery co pa

delaware co pa

westchester co ny

somserset co nj

bergen co nj

passaic co nj

anne arundel co md

howard co md

balitmore co md

worcester co ma

wake co nc

mecklenburg co nc

I think that is all.

[Young Conservative]

It is likely that way more counties flip to Trump in 2020 than to the Dem nominee, even if the Dem nominee wins the popular vote by more than Clinton.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

nevada co ca

orange co ca

fresno co ca

riverside co ca

san Luis Obispo co ca

stanislaus co ca

clackamas co or

bernalillo co nm

jefferson co co

adams co co

arapahoe co co

broomfield co co

Larimer co co

douglas co ne

lancaster co ne

fort bend co tx

dakota co mn

washington co mn

jefferson co al

douglas co ga

cobb co ga

gwinnett co ga

henry co ga

newton co ga

orange co fl

osceola co fl

miami dade co fl

hillsborough co fl

charleston co sc

fayette co ky

jefferson co ky

travis co tx

marion co in

hamilton co oh

oakland co mi

fairfax co va

loudoun co va

pwc co va

franklin co oh

dupage co il

dekalb co il

kane co il

will co il

lake co il

albemarle co va

henrico co va

chester co pa

bucks co pa

montgomery co pa

delaware co pa

westchester co ny

somserset co nj

bergen co nj

passaic co nj

anne arundel co md

howard co md

balitmore co md

worcester co ma

wake co nc

mecklenburg co nc

I think that is all.

How big of a landslide do you expect Trump to win?  He's winning a ton of big cities (or at least their counties) in 2020 in this.

[Yellowhammer]

How big of a landslide do you expect Trump to win?  He's winning a ton of big cities (or at least their counties) in 2020 in this.

He’s trolling

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

nevada co ca

orange co ca

fresno co ca

riverside co ca

san Luis Obispo co ca

stanislaus co ca

clackamas co or

bernalillo co nm

jefferson co co

adams co co

arapahoe co co

broomfield co co

Larimer co co

douglas co ne

lancaster co ne

fort bend co tx

dakota co mn

washington co mn

jefferson co al

douglas co ga

cobb co ga

gwinnett co ga

henry co ga

newton co ga

orange co fl

osceola co fl

miami dade co fl

hillsborough co fl

charleston co sc

fayette co ky

jefferson co ky

travis co tx

marion co in

hamilton co oh

oakland co mi

fairfax co va

loudoun co va

pwc co va

franklin co oh

dupage co il

dekalb co il

kane co il

will co il

lake co il

albemarle co va

henrico co va

chester co pa

bucks co pa

montgomery co pa

delaware co pa

westchester co ny

somserset co nj

bergen co nj

passaic co nj

anne arundel co md

howard co md

balitmore co md

worcester co ma

wake co nc

mecklenburg co nc

I think that is all.

How big of a landslide do you expect Trump to win?  He's winning a ton of big cities (or at least their counties) in 2020 in this.

I don't expect Trump to win in a landslide, in fact he will lose by 6-7 because he will lose places like mingo co wv and foard co tx because populism.

[Mr. Illini]

Not sure why Peoria IL is such a popular option. Is the idea that Never Trump Republicans there are going to come home?

Clinton and Kirk were relatively strong in Peoria, much like the Chicago suburbs.

[Tintrlvr]

Tiny counties where movement can be totally random (and has been in the past) and that were close in 2016:

Kenedy County, TX

Rural, racially mixed counties in the Deep South that were very marginal in 2016:

Pike County, MS
Washington County, GA
Dillon County, SC
Pasquotank County, NC

Marginal small-town counties (but not counties with cities of any real size) in the Midwest:

Carlton County, MN
Jackson County, IL

Mormons:

Salt Lake County, UT

Confusing 2016 trends that may continue:

Lake County, CA

That's all I have. I would guess around 1-3 of the above will vote for Trump in 2020 in what I expect to be a solid victory for the Democratic nominee overall. Probably it would happen in groups (e.g., it might be that three of the mixed Southern counties flip the other way, or two of the rural Midwestern counties).

[AtorBoltox]

There will be no such counties

[lfromnj]

Yesterdays thread of the wise and Noble RRH posters believed the strongly Republican Fort Bend county will flip R. Abbots incredible victory of 0.2 over strong candidate Lupe Valdez shows why Warren will lose it.

[Tintrlvr]

Yesterdays thread of the wise and Noble RRH posters believed the strongly Republican Fort Bend county will flip R. Abbots incredible victory of 0.2 over strong candidate Lupe Valdez shows why Warren will lose it.

Ha. Far more likely that Fort Bend County will be more Democratic than Harris County in 2020.

[Adam Griffin]

I imagine the majority of these counties will be in the Deep South, most will be due to hemorrhaging black population, and the rest are likely to be very small counties with volatile turnout rates that impact margins irrespective of public sentiment (Latino communities are probably a prime example).

Outside of the South, only incredibly close 2016 counties will likely have a shot at this. Even then, it'll be tough: most of the Rust Belt swung to the extent that it did because of a large stay-at-home bloc who were by no means the definition of Trump supporters and who likely won't be sitting this out again.

[Ban my account ffs!]

Fort Bend in Texas

I’m going to give you the benefit of the doubt that this was a joke.

How gerenous.

[Yellowhammer]

There will be no such counties

LMAO

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Fort Bend in Texas

Man I would love to see this just so TrendsareReal and IceSPear could get #TRIGGERED

And I would like to see Andy Beshear win, but neither of those will happen.

FortBendRed2020

[lfromnj]

There will be no such counties

LMAO

Yeah its utterly insane when we literally have a few Nixon McGovern and Ford counties.

[VPH]

Confusing 2016 trends that may continue:

Lake County, CA

Always kind of wondered what was up there