Predict Trump's Margin in Williamson County, TN

[100% pro-life no matter what]

2012: 73-26 Romney (51 points to the right of the nation as a whole)
2016: 64-29-4 Trump (37 points to the right of the nation as a whole)
2018: 65-34 Green (39 points to the right of the nation as a whole)

This is a wealthy, suburban, heavily Evangelical county that has often voted Republican by massive margins.  Trump's margin was weakened substantially, but, unlike other suburbs, it did trend slightly Republican in 2018, especially relative to the State of Tennessee.

I can't see Trump equaling Romney's 2012 performance here, but I could see him getting back to the two-thirds threshold.

[Gass3268]

That's pretty dark red in Williamson County.





I'm thinking somewhere between the 2018 Governor and Senate races. 61-36-3 feels about right. I expect continued bleeding against Republicans in suburbs across the country.

[freepcrusher]

slightly off topic but its a shame whats happened in rural TN. If you had told me in august that Blackburn would only get 58% in Wilco (her home county no less) than I would assume Bredesen had won. But I guess the rural areas hate democrats at all levels.

[Del Tachi]

Since the likeliest Dem nominees are Sanders and Harris, and not "moderate, strong and stable" Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, I'll guess Williamson ends up something like 68-28 Trump

[100% pro-life no matter what]

That's pretty dark red in Williamson County.





I'm thinking somewhere between the 2018 Governor and Senate races. 61-36-3 feels about right. I expect continued bleeding against Republicans in suburbs across the country.

Yeah, but those trends are from 2012 and 2014 which were lightly contested races in Tennessee.  Williamson from 2016 to 2018 did move to the right relative to the state as a whole in all races and relative to the nation as a whole in all but the Senate race.

[ElectionsGuy]

66-31.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

If he's having a really bad night nationally: 60-38
If he's having a bad, but not terrible, night nationally: 64-33
If he's having a decent night nationally: 66-32
If he's having a really good night nationally: 68-31
If he's having a great night nationally: 70-28

[Politician]

64-32 Trump.

IceSpear and RussFeingoldWasRobbedk would probably predict Trump 48% there, lol.

[Filinovich]

R+31

[Dr. MB]

Trump 62-34

[LoneStarDem]

Trump 70% to 27%.

[One Term Floridian]

Am I a fool for thinking that Trump could actually improve here from 2016? Yes, Blackburn only won by 18 here but that was after the TN Dems nominated their best possible candidate whose top targets included Williamson County. Even after desperately targeting the county, Bredesen couldn't make it (or the state, for that matter) competitive.

Contrast that to the 2020 Democratic nominee, who probably won't ever visit TN and certainly not Williamson County.

[Politician]

Am I a fool for thinking that Trump could actually improve here from 2016? Yes, Blackburn only won by 18 here but that was after the TN Dems nominated their best possible candidate whose top targets included Williamson County. Even after desperately targeting the county, Bredesen couldn't make it (or the state, for that matter) competitive.

Contrast that to the 2020 Democratic nominee, who probably won't ever visit TN and certainly not Williamson County.

I mean, if the Democrats nominate Sanders or Warren, it's certainly possible. It's very similiar to the WOW counties in WI.

[MT Treasurer]

Trump 60%
Biden 35%

Sure, it’s still a solid Republican county which usually votes well to the right of the state, but there’s zero chance Trump does better here in 2020 than in 2016, even against "someone like Sanders or Warren."

Yes, Blackburn only won by 18 here but that was after the TN Dems nominated their best possible candidate whose top targets included Williamson County.

Williamson County is also part of TN-07, a district she represented in Congress for 16 years, so the fact that she "only" won by 18 is quite significant.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Trump will win it 63-35