Do Republicans have a better of winning the House or the Presidency in 2020?

[Nichlemn]

Argument for the House: There appears to be a larger pro-GOP bias in the House map than the Electoral College, such that a 2% Dem PV win would likely win them the Presidency, but lose the House. Also, it appears that House elections are becoming more nationalised.

Argument for the Presidency: Primarily incumbency advantage. (Consider how Republicans did a couple of points better in 2012 and 2016 than they dd in the Presidency).

[New Jersey Moderate]

House cause of gerrymandering

[brucejoel99]

I personally don't think that the GOP has a chance in hell of taking back the House in 2020 (as of right now, anyway), so I voted Presidency by default.

[Thatkat04]

Republicans lost by large enough margins in suburbs because of Trump that I have a hard time imagining any recovery while Trump is at the top of the ticket. So, I think its very possible for Trump to win re-election and republicans to make minimal gains in the house. 

[LoneStarDem]

Obviously the White House.

[ElectionsGuy]

House cause of gerrymandering

Besides this being an overrated reason for Republican success, a lot of the 'gerrymanders' ended up becoming 'dummymanders' as many of the suburban seats they drew have shifted significantly Democratic.

[Lechasseur]

The Presidency, just because I can't see the Democrats losing the House if they win the Presidency

[Del Tachi]

The White House, but the GOP winning back the house isn't impossible.  Probably has a 10-20% chance of happening.  They only need 19 seats (assuming they lose the NC special later this year).

There are 31 Democrats in Trump districts, only 3 Republicans remain in Clinton districts.

[Stranger in a strange land]

House cause of gerrymandering

The two aren't independent events: they don't have a chance of taking back the house if Trump loses, and are at best 50/50 to take it back if he wins.

[One Term Floridian]

I would say the presidency because it’s reasonable to conclude that if the Dems nominate a poor candidate in 2020, purple district Dems could hold on during what would still likely be a narrow GOP win in the electoral college

[Mr.Phips]

If Trump is losing, Republicans are not winning the House.  Democrats may lose some very Trump friendly seats that he still wins (MN-07, NY-11, NY-22, and maybe SC-01, NM-02, and OK-05),but they are also probably picking up some seats that Trump loses like PA-01, GA-07, TX-23, and maybe NE-02.  The days of substantial ticket splitting are over.

[smoltchanov]

The days of substantial ticket splitting are over.

That would make US elections an extremely boring thing, so, i hope - not completely, But yes, Trump has better chances, then Republican party in House. The Democratic nominee (whoever that will be) will have a very nonenviable task of reconciling different wings of his/her party (first of all - standard liberals and "bold progressives") on his/her hands after selection, while Republican party is really an overwhelmingly "Trump party" now...

[KaiserDave]

Presidency.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Wait...people actually think R's could win the House at the same time Trump is losing?

Uh...no.

[Alben Barkley]

There is no scenario in which Trump loses the presidency but the Republicans take back the House. None.

There is, however, a scenario in which Trump could cling to the presidency in the EC while the GOP still does not take back the House. That would depend largely on Trump winning with the same map as 2016 or very similar, but the Democrats maintain their huge margins from 2016 and 2018 in the suburbs, particularly the California suburbs, allowing all those districts they swung (e.g. in Orange County) to stay D even as Trump scrapes by with narrow margins yet again in the rust belt, still losing the popular vote.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Only thing GOP has going for them is the Senate, which may last until 2022.

[nerd73]

I'd say that they have a better chance of winning the Presidency than winning back the house, simply because of the fact that it's going to be pretty difficult to flip back the suburban seats they lost with Trump at the top of the ticket, and flipping the rural seats won't be enough.

[here2view]

Presidency. Much like Democrats under Obama, Republicans will not have the House again as long as Trump is President.

[Ilhan Apologist]

I wonder, though. Like, ticket splitting is rapidly declining. If almost everyone votes the same party up and down the ballot, can't Republicans win back the House but lose the Presidency?

[TrumpBritt24]

Presidency, easily.