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Author Topic: Official Post your 2006 Senate Election Prediction Maps  (Read 102559 times)
WMS
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« Reply #225 on: November 13, 2006, 05:44:59 pm »

Here's my guess as to your question: it is perceived that Brown backstabbing Hackett was a liberal backstab of a communitarian, and feeds into the argument that liberals only tolerate communitarians in the Democratic Party and will seek to get rid of them the second they don't need them. And those of you on the left certainly act that way. Liberals are thus ecstatic that a liberal won out instead of a communitarian, while conservatives and libertarians alike would've supported DeWine over a Democrat from any quadrant.

Thanks for the response, WMS- I was genuinely interested, not just baiting you. This is pretty much what I was thinking, although it still doesn't make perfect sense (like I said, Brown and Hackett weren't that different on most issues...).

Well, I decided to give you a real reply and not be a smart-ass. Tongue And I bolded a word up there for ya. Tongue

Also...this little thread gives some good background on why communitarians might be suspicious. Wink
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Rob
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« Reply #226 on: November 13, 2006, 06:07:17 pm »

I bolded a word up there for ya. Tongue

I wasn't saying that your dislike of Brown doesn't make sense (I know why you hate him, and it isn't necessarily because of his political beliefs)- I was referring to communitarians in general. Image really does matter. Sad, but true.

this little thread gives some good background on why communitarians might be suspicious. Wink

This is a fascinating article, but I don't entirely agree with it. I see no reason why the old-school communitarians ("lunch-pail Democrats") shouldn't be able to coexist with the social liberals and doves that McGovern brought in. What will unite them? Economic populism. Hell, for US Senate in Pennsylvania, I supported some joker who wants to overturn Roe v. Wade and opposes embryonic stem-cell research (albeit with serious misgivings Tongue).

I'd also note that while liberals may be intolerant of communitarian Dems, they often have the same attitude toward us. They should recognize that they are now a distinct minority in the party, and admit that social liberalism has netted impressive gains for the party across the Northeast and West Coast.
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WMS
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« Reply #227 on: November 13, 2006, 06:52:12 pm »

I bolded a word up there for ya. Tongue

I wasn't saying that your dislike of Brown doesn't make sense (I know why you hate him, and it isn't necessarily because of his political beliefs)- I was referring to communitarians in general. Image really does matter. Sad, but true.

Well, I wanted Ryan to run myself. Wink But noooo...

Quote
this little thread gives some good background on why communitarians might be suspicious. Wink

This is a fascinating article, but I don't entirely agree with it. I see no reason why the old-school communitarians ("lunch-pail Democrats") shouldn't be able to coexist with the social liberals and doves that McGovern brought in. What will unite them? Economic populism. Hell, for US Senate in Pennsylvania, I supported some joker who wants to overturn Roe v. Wade and opposes embryonic stem-cell research (albeit with serious misgivings Tongue).

I'd also note that while liberals may be intolerant of communitarian Dems, they often have the same attitude toward us. They should recognize that they are now a distinct minority in the party, and admit that social liberalism has netted impressive gains for the party across the Northeast and West Coast.

Ah, but what the article pointed out was that it was the lefties who decided to end coexistence (something I think they've been paying a price for for decades now Tongue ). Wink

Actually, that is not quite true. (source: 9-23-2006 National Journal, sorry, paid site so no direct link) Among (before this election, anyway) Democratic voters (not registered Democrats) were mostly two groups, 60% "the socially and economically" disadvantaged, and 40% "upscale Democrats" (who are via PEW only 19%** of all registered voters) who wield highly disproportionate influence in the party (i.e., pro-abortion or bust on judicial nominees). This puts the Dems at a bit of a disadvantage* usually (2006 was a very big anti-Republican backlash year - whether it changed the underlying orientation isn't certain until 2008 Tongue ) because those two groups are not enough to win majorities.

*For another take on the Democrats' need to shift the underlying partisan leaning of the country, go here and, when the site is working, click on Ten Stories About Election '06. The examination of Dean's 50-State Strategy is the most salient part.

The strength of social liberals is also overstated by redistricting and the bloc voting of a great many non-social liberals amongst minority communities. If the Democratic party insists on remaining staunchly social liberal and doesn't agree to more of a social moderate position (note I am not suggesting they become social conservative) they risk losing the blue-collar votes that were responsible for their victory this year.
Or to put it another way, as a whole the Democratic Party members are moderate-with-a-liberal-wing, whereas the Democratic Party leadership is liberal-with-a-moderate-wing.

**And I'll bring up another point, how I see the balance of the four ideological quadrants amongst the American voters. I will compare my estimate with what Michael Barone did in the 1982 Alamanac of American Politics, since it turns out I am not the first to have done this.
Ideology - My % - Barone's %
Communitarian/Populist: 30% - 30%
Libertarian: 25% - 25%
Conservative: 25% - 35% (note: Barone, in his Retrospective 20 years later, said he overestimated this)
Liberal: 20% - 10% (note: Barone also said he underestimated this)

If the liberals don't realize that in a two-party FPTP system the Democratic Party needs to be a coalition and instead insist on dominant rule...you won't establish a lasting majority. I am waiting to see how pragmatic the Democratic leadership is going to be after 12 years in the wilderness. Wink
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Gustaf
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« Reply #228 on: November 14, 2006, 03:18:23 pm »

Here's my guess as to your question: it is perceived that Brown backstabbing Hackett was a liberal backstab of a communitarian, and feeds into the argument that liberals only tolerate communitarians in the Democratic Party and will seek to get rid of them the second they don't need them. And those of you on the left certainly act that way. Liberals are thus ecstatic that a liberal won out instead of a communitarian, while conservatives and libertarians alike would've supported DeWine over a Democrat from any quadrant.

Thanks for the response, WMS- I was genuinely interested, not just baiting you. This is pretty much what I was thinking, although it still doesn't make perfect sense (like I said, Brown and Hackett weren't that different on most issues...).

I don't like Brown at all, and I'm not a communitarian.

I wouldn't expect a conservative to care much for Brown.

You actually think I'm a conservative or just throwing in rethoric? I'm a proud liberal. Tongue
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Rob
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« Reply #229 on: November 15, 2006, 07:35:51 am »

You actually think I'm a conservative or just throwing in rethoric? I'm a proud liberal. Tongue

I always thought of you as a moderate-conservative who only identified with the US Democrats because the GOP is so batshit crazy. Tongue Also, your worst disagreements of late have been with liberal "hacks."

I don't know much about your ideology, to be honest.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #230 on: November 15, 2006, 09:13:12 am »

You actually think I'm a conservative or just throwing in rethoric? I'm a proud liberal. Tongue

I always thought of you as a moderate-conservative who only identified with the US Democrats because the GOP is so batshit crazy. Tongue Also, your worst disagreements of late have been with liberal "hacks."

I don't know much about your ideology, to be honest.

That is because there are more liberal hacks than conservative ones and because of THAT there are plenty of people to take care of the latter without me having to worry about it. I'm not at all conservative, I'm liberal, but probably on the right of the liberals.

I'm basically slightly left of centre on social issues and slightly right of centre on economic issues (though I'm not really centrist on every single issue - I'm far right when it comes to school vouchers and free trade, for instance). But if you look at my endorsements I endorsed mostly Democratic candidates for both senate and guberntorial elections.
« Last Edit: November 15, 2006, 10:43:13 am by Gustaf »Logged
Julian Assange is a Snowflake
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« Reply #231 on: March 09, 2007, 01:22:18 pm »

as for santorum, he is 1. smarter than casey, 2. a muuuuuuuuuuuuch better campaigner, 3. has a very dedicated group of supporters (look at phil).

And all that didn't mean jack sh!t.
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Gabu
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« Reply #232 on: March 09, 2007, 02:10:10 pm »

as for santorum, he is 1. smarter than casey, 2. a muuuuuuuuuuuuch better campaigner, 3. has a very dedicated group of supporters (look at phil).

And all that didn't mean jack sh!t.

Img
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Julian Assange is a Snowflake
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« Reply #233 on: March 10, 2007, 12:10:20 am »

as for santorum, he is 1. smarter than casey, 2. a muuuuuuuuuuuuch better campaigner, 3. has a very dedicated group of supporters (look at phil).

And all that didn't mean jack sh!t.

Img


eh, I just ran across this.

Let's face it though, if there wasn't so much "SANTORUM IS A CAMPAIGNING GOD AND THE KING OF LATE COMEBACKS, THERE IS NO WAY HE CAN LOSE TO POPULIST MORON CASEY" type crap posted, we wouldn't have so much material to bump.

Anyway, this is just something to note about Walter's predictions.
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The Chad Ralph Northam
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« Reply #234 on: April 10, 2018, 05:00:53 pm »

Why did so many people have MN as either a GOP pickup or a narrow Democrat win?
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MB
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« Reply #235 on: April 10, 2018, 05:33:01 pm »

Why did so many people have MN as either a GOP pickup or a narrow Democrat win?
Polling was close in late 2005 and early 2006. Klobuchar didn't start gaining a huge lead until the spring.
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Ishan
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« Reply #236 on: July 03, 2018, 10:01:21 am »

Why did many people call Washington close
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MB
MB298
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« Reply #237 on: July 04, 2018, 10:35:42 am »

Why did many people call Washington close
Assuming it's because Dino Rossi was nearly elected Governor in 2004.
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aaroncd107
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« Reply #238 on: September 03, 2018, 11:17:36 am »

I think Brown will win Ohio

You think Brown will win Ohio?!?  I'm sorry to break this to you, but that won't be happening.  The only Dem who has even a remote chance of winning is Paul Hackett, and even then, it's a slim chance.
lol
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Former President Weatherboy1102
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« Reply #239 on: September 04, 2018, 02:52:37 pm »


I think Brown will win Ohio

You think Brown will win Ohio?!?  I'm sorry to break this to you, but that won't be happening.  The only Dem who has even a remote chance of winning is Paul Hackett, and even then, it's a slim chance.

This aged well.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #240 on: September 04, 2018, 05:08:36 pm »

Eeh, what can I say?  In December 2005, DeWine (an inoffensive moderate) was still leading in the most recent poll, and things were only just starting to shape up to be a wave mid-term.
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