New Jersey is the Republicans' best chance for a pickup, and even that doesn't look very likely. Minnesota is swinging back to the Democrats, and they already have one Bushbot Republican in Norm Coleman. I highly doubt they'll elect another.
My over/under for Democratic pickups is +3. Anything less than 3 net pickups would be a disappointment in my eyes.
Wow. You are NOT going to be happy Election Night 2006, that's pretty much for sure.
Actually, I think you make a good point here-- by all historical precedent, Democrats should gain a few seats or so. Problem: it's not going to happen. Generic party polls are swinging back to even, with Dems holding an insignificant edge mostly because they aren't in power.
A lot of Democrats are acting like they still have the Big Mo, which they don't. There's a lot of time, of course, but at this point there is no way to project the situation as of November 2006.
My personal guess right now is that the GOP will take 2 Dem seats (probably NJ and MN) while Democrats knock off 2 Republicans. There could be less turnover than that... we'll see.