Official Post your 2006 Senate Election Prediction Maps

[Gustaf]

Dream away, but I don't think it's gonna happen...I think we'll have to be content with something like 1-2 pickups. In fact, winnign back the senate ever looks kind of bleak, really...

[Gustaf]

Dream away, but I don't think it's gonna happen...I think we'll have to be content with something like 1-2 pickups.

If you are referring to net gains in the Senate, even that is a bit optimistic.

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My opinion exactly.  Neither Democrats nor Republicans are going to make headway next year -and for that, in light of all their troubles this year, Republicans should feel grateful that they do not fare any worse. 

Heh, you're being really pessimistic. Not getting at least one seat would be a really poor showing considering the situation. I do think Dems will get PA and I expect perhaps 2 more seats to change hands (unforeseen ones, that is). I think it will net out at 1 seat gain for the Dems, or thereabout.

[Gustaf]

Dream away, but I don't think it's gonna happen...I think we'll have to be content with something like 1-2 pickups.

If you are referring to net gains in the Senate, even that is a bit optimistic.

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My opinion exactly.  Neither Democrats nor Republicans are going to make headway next year -and for that, in light of all their troubles this year, Republicans should feel grateful that they do not fare any worse. 

Heh, you're being really pessimistic. Not getting at least one seat would be a really poor showing considering the situation. I do think Dems will get PA and I expect perhaps 2 more seats to change hands (unforeseen ones, that is). I think it will net out at 1 seat gain for the Dems, or thereabout.

I meant in terms of the partisan make-up in the Senate, which I predict will remain static -I am sure Democrats can definitely gain Pennsylvania and (less likely) Rhode Island, but Republicans will likely pick up Minnesota and (less likely) New Jersey, therefore cancelling each other's gains out.   

I should make myself clear...I do think a net gain of at least one seat i likely, because I think Dems will take PA and beyond that we should AT LEAST be able to cancel out any GOP gains. I think it's fairly likely to stop at one seat gain, could be two with a little luck though. But not more than that. As I've stated before, it doesn't really matter since it's not gonna be enough to take back the senate anyway.

[Gustaf]

Current list of likely to change hands:

1. Pennsylvania
2. Missouri
3. Montana
4. Minnesota
5. Ohio
6. New Jersey
7. Rhode Island

Or at least, that's my take right now. Might change though.

[Gustaf]

Most vulnerable:

10. Nebraska
Not actually likely to switch, but considering it's Nebraska I still put it up there.

9. Tennessee
Also not very likely, but Ford seems like a fairly good candidate. Still,considering how badly Dems have been doing in Tennessee lately I'm not expecting much.

8. Ohio
I used to have high hopes on this one but I'm losing faith. Now that DeWine is moving ahead and Hackett is looking weaker, well...defeating a fairly moderate incumbent in a somewhat Republican state was always going to be hard. The chance is still there, but it's slipping away.

7. Maryland
This is here simply because of that poll and the fact that Steele is looking so strong. The Dems really SHOULD win a race in Maryland.

6. Montana
Dems have been doing well lately in Montana, and Burns has the whole Abramoff thing around his neck. Still, this is a state that Bush won by over 20 points, so it definitely won't be easy. I'm still giving the incumbent the edge here, I'm thinking it might play out similar to Bunnings in 2004.

5. Minnesota
This looks good for the GOP on paper, but polls have been unfavourable and Minnesota's strong Kerry vote is an indication that it might be swinging back. Sort of wait-and-see on this one.

4. Missouri
Should be a tough one, but once again, polls have been looking good for Democrats. Considering how close Missouri still is in most races Democrats ought to win a race by now. This is a tossup, IMO.

3. New Jersey
I find it hard to believe that New Jersey will elect a Republican senator for the first time in 30 years after the big Corzine win, but on the other hand Kean looks good and Menendez doesn't, candidate-wise. And this is sort of the reverse of Missouri. They ought to win, just once.

2. Rhode Island
I'm still sceptical of Democrats picking up this seat, but I guess it could happen, especially if Laffey wins the nomination. If he doesn't though, I still give Chafee the edge.

1. Pennsylvania
What is there to say? I don't want the PAers over me, suffice it to say that this is the only race I consider really likely to switch, what with the large Casey lead and all.

So, my prediction of 1+ for Democrats remain.

[Gustaf]

Lott won't be reelected.

What makes you think that?

Seriously though, is there something you know that the rest of us don't? I mean, you're from Mississippi and probably know a lot more about the Senate race there than I do.

Mike Moore could knock him off.  I wouldn't bet on it, or think he even would have a 20% of doing it, but it's not outside the realm of possibilty.

I'm confused.  You think there's a 20 percent chance yet you say it will happen?

No.

He says there is a 10% chance of it happening, yet he says it will happen.

[Gustaf]

I just posted a long list, but then it disappeared somehow.

Anyway, to make a long list short, here are my updated most vulnerable:

10. Nebraska  (10)
9. Tennessee (9)
8. Ohio (
7. Maryland (7)

Cut-off between competitive and non-competitive

6. Minnesota (5)
5. Rhode Island (2)
4. Missouri (4)
3. Montana (6)
2. New Jersey (3)

Cut-off between "I predict as switching and not"

1. Pennsylvania (1)

[Gustaf]

Here are my updated most vulnerable, having looked at the approval ratings:

Didn't realize Nelson was so popular gonna take him off the list. Not sure who to replace with, but I guess Stabenow. Menendez decent approval rating compared to Burns abysmal one makes me switch these races.

10. Michigan (new)
9. Tennessee (9)
8. Ohio ( 8 )
7. Maryland (7)

Cut-off between competitive and non-competitive

6. Minnesota (6)
5. Rhode Island (5)
4. Missouri (4)
3. New Jersey (2)
2. Montana (3)

Cut-off between "I predict as switching and not"

1. Pennsylvania (1)

[Gustaf]

Sam, have you seen the latest Nebraska poll? I think you can move Nebraska to safe. Also, I'm inclined to say the same for Nevada, possibly also Arizona and Virginia. Polls there have been chrushing.

[Gustaf]

Yeah, I think you're nuts. Nevada ain't gonna switch, Ensign is leading by a lot in most polls.

[Gustaf]

Yeah, I think you're nuts. Nevada ain't gonna switch, Ensign is leading by a lot in most polls.

I was going by rasmussen which had Ensign at 46% back on 8/7 which is of course a very old poll. If there is a more recent one I would be interested to know. I admit that it is a long shot, but as I said, expect some surprises. If there are no surprises, than in itself would be a surprise.
The poll had Ensign's opponent at 39%, a 7% difference.

Two most recent polls: Mason-Dixon at 10th of August giving ENsign a 21%lead, 54 to 33 and Survery USA a couple of weeks ago ,also saying a 21% lead (56 to 35). Ensign has constantly been ahead by double digits in all polls save for that one Rasmussen poll.

[Gustaf]

Check out mine.

Also crazy.

[Gustaf]

I don't like Brown at all, and I'm not a communitarian.

[Gustaf]

Here's my guess as to your question: it is perceived that Brown backstabbing Hackett was a liberal backstab of a communitarian, and feeds into the argument that liberals only tolerate communitarians in the Democratic Party and will seek to get rid of them the second they don't need them. And those of you on the left certainly act that way. Liberals are thus ecstatic that a liberal won out instead of a communitarian, while conservatives and libertarians alike would've supported DeWine over a Democrat from any quadrant.

Thanks for the response, WMS- I was genuinely interested, not just baiting you. This is pretty much what I was thinking, although it still doesn't make perfect sense (like I said, Brown and Hackett weren't that different on most issues...).

I don't like Brown at all, and I'm not a communitarian.

I wouldn't expect a conservative to care much for Brown.

You actually think I'm a conservative or just throwing in rethoric? I'm a proud liberal.

[Gustaf]

You actually think I'm a conservative or just throwing in rethoric? I'm a proud liberal.

I always thought of you as a moderate-conservative who only identified with the US Democrats because the GOP is so batshit crazy. Also, your worst disagreements of late have been with liberal "hacks."

I don't know much about your ideology, to be honest.

That is because there are more liberal hacks than conservative ones and because of THAT there are plenty of people to take care of the latter without me having to worry about it. I'm not at all conservative, I'm liberal, but probably on the right of the liberals.

I'm basically slightly left of centre on social issues and slightly right of centre on economic issues (though I'm not really centrist on every single issue - I'm far right when it comes to school vouchers and free trade, for instance). But if you look at my endorsements I endorsed mostly Democratic candidates for both senate and guberntorial elections.