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| | |-+  Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
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Author Topic: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps  (Read 64164 times)
Frodo
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« Reply #25 on: December 28, 2005, 02:36:31 pm »

Supersoulty, can you sticky this?
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nini2287
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« Reply #26 on: February 06, 2006, 01:43:00 pm »

Thanks for finding the old thread, Frodo.  Anyway, here's my new prediction:



Changes:
Dem to Rep:  IA, IL, ME
Rep to Dem: NY, MA, CO, AR, CA, OH
Net:  Dem +3

>30 Tossup
>50 Likely
>70 Lean
>90 Solid
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nclib
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« Reply #27 on: February 07, 2006, 11:39:45 pm »

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"George Bush supports abstinence. Lucky Laura."
- sign seen at the March for Women's Lives, 4/25/04

Gustaf
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« Reply #28 on: February 08, 2006, 01:33:29 pm »



Here is my first prediction map for this...

30%=seats that will change
40%=competitive seats that will stay where they are
60%=seats that will not change hands, nor be all that competitive.

So:
Dem to Rep: Iowa, Illinois and Maine
Rep to Dem: Massachusetts, New York, Colorado, Arkansas and Ohio
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This place really has become a cesspool of degenerate whores...

Economic score: +0.9
Social score: -2.61

In MN for fantasy stuff, member of the most recently dissolved centrist party.
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« Reply #29 on: February 15, 2006, 04:03:43 pm »

2006 and 2007.  Dark are pick-ups, light remain same party.



+6 D in '06, then no change in '07.
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« Reply #30 on: February 15, 2006, 07:51:41 pm »

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Political Matrix:
Economic score: -2.45
Social score: -0.17

Dick Durbin = Freedom Fighter
BARACK OBAMA 2008
Gabu
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« Reply #31 on: February 15, 2006, 08:06:49 pm »

+6 D in '06, then no change in '07.

Louisiana occurs in 2007, I believe, so it should be +1 R in 2007 (according to your map).
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« Reply #32 on: February 15, 2006, 09:29:16 pm »

+6 D in '06, then no change in '07.
Louisiana occurs in 2007, I believe, so it should be +1 R in 2007 (according to your map).

No; see Kentucky.
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Gabu
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« Reply #33 on: February 15, 2006, 09:32:10 pm »

+6 D in '06, then no change in '07.
Louisiana occurs in 2007, I believe, so it should be +1 R in 2007 (according to your map).

No; see Kentucky.

Oh, I forgot Kentucky was 2007 as well.

Carry on. Smiley
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« Reply #34 on: February 15, 2006, 09:36:12 pm »

Carry on. Smiley

Thank you; I shall. Wink
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PBrunsel
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« Reply #35 on: February 15, 2006, 09:46:56 pm »

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"I know that the Lord is always on the side of the right. But it is my constant anxiety and prayer that I and this nation should be on the Lord's side."
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nick
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« Reply #36 on: February 15, 2006, 09:59:36 pm »

Call me crazy, but I like Culver in IA.  Tie Nussle to DC and throw him a f'in anvil.   Oh yeah, dont forget his intern issues.
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PBrunsel
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« Reply #37 on: February 15, 2006, 10:26:41 pm »

Call me crazy, but I like Culver in IA. Tie Nussle to DC and throw him a f'in anvil. Oh yeah, dont forget his intern issues.

It will be very close, and Nussle could very well lose. I too like Culver, and polls show him running neck-and-neck with the popular Secretary of State. It's more my optimisim on my part. Culver will have to spend considerbale money against another good man Jim Blouin and our very efficent Secretary of Agriculture Patty Judge. A weasel with two legs named Bob Vander Platts is the only opponent Nussle has. He will start the campaign with money, as Culver will have to use it against Blouin and Judge.
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"I know that the Lord is always on the side of the right. But it is my constant anxiety and prayer that I and this nation should be on the Lord's side."
-President Abraham Lincoln, December 1862
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« Reply #38 on: February 15, 2006, 11:15:55 pm »

What is your problem with Vander Platts?  From what Ive read, he seems like the more conservative candidate (fiscially and socially).
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PBrunsel
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« Reply #39 on: February 15, 2006, 11:17:59 pm »

What is your problem with Vander Platts? From what Ive read, he seems like the more conservative candidate (fiscially and socially).

He's a flake who was out charmed by Doug Gorss, a pig confinement lobbyist. He couldn't get elected Dog Catcher.
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"I know that the Lord is always on the side of the right. But it is my constant anxiety and prayer that I and this nation should be on the Lord's side."
-President Abraham Lincoln, December 1862
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« Reply #40 on: February 16, 2006, 12:00:57 am »

Culver will have to spend considerbale money against another good man Jim Blouin and our very efficent Secretary of Agriculture Patty Judge. ... He will start the campaign with money, as Culver will have to use it against Blouin and Judge.

Not so; Culver announced today that Judge will be his runningmate, and Judge is now encouraging the other Dems to drop out and endorse Culver/Judge.
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Ben.
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« Reply #41 on: February 16, 2006, 09:33:28 am »



As of right know I reckon itll be a credible performance for the Dems while not quite the massive success some could have hoped for and it might well help to outshine what looks like being a very lacklusta performance in the senate for the Dems against a potentially very robust performance by the GOP.   

Result Dems +5 (CO, AR, NY, MA and OH), - 1 (PA): Net - +4   .
          - Reps +  1 (PA), -5 (CO, AR, NY, MA and OH): Net 4. 
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PBrunsel
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« Reply #42 on: February 16, 2006, 12:56:29 pm »

Culver will have to spend considerbale money against another good man Jim Blouin and our very efficent Secretary of Agriculture Patty Judge. ... He will start the campaign with money, as Culver will have to use it against Blouin and Judge.

Not so; Culver announced today that Judge will be his runningmate, and Judge is now encouraging the other Dems to drop out and endorse Culver/Judge.

That does change, but he still has Blouin to worry about, and he is a strogn candidate.
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"I know that the Lord is always on the side of the right. But it is my constant anxiety and prayer that I and this nation should be on the Lord's side."
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nini2287
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« Reply #43 on: February 16, 2006, 02:21:11 pm »



30% Tossup
50% Lean
70% Strong Lean
90% Solid

Switches

D->R
IL, ME

R->D
CA, CO, AR, OH, NY, MA

Dems +4
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jfern
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« Reply #44 on: March 05, 2006, 08:09:06 pm »

Somewhat optimistic, hopefully Democrats can't catch Arnold and fall behind in PA.

Arnold is toast.
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Alcon
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« Reply #45 on: March 05, 2006, 08:10:16 pm »

Somewhat optimistic, hopefully Democrats can't catch Arnold and fall behind in PA.

Arnold is toast.

Polls show a tie, despite him having seemingly bottomed out in approval ratings.   I would hardly say that the idiot is done.
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jfern
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« Reply #46 on: March 05, 2006, 08:15:00 pm »

Somewhat optimistic, hopefully Democrats can't catch Arnold and fall behind in PA.

Arnold is toast.

Polls show a tie, despite him having seemingly bottomed out in approval ratings.   I would hardly say that the idiot is done.

All that means is that Arnold has way more name recognition then his opponents. Arnold hasn't broken 40% against either Democrat in the last 4 polls. That's terrible for an incumbent.
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Alcon
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« Reply #47 on: March 05, 2006, 08:17:20 pm »

Somewhat optimistic, hopefully Democrats can't catch Arnold and fall behind in PA.

Arnold is toast.

Polls show a tie, despite him having seemingly bottomed out in approval ratings.   I would hardly say that the idiot is done.

All that means is that Arnold has way more name recognition then his opponents. Arnold hasn't broken 40% against either Democrat in the last 4 polls. That's terrible for an incumbent.

There's a race where all the candidates have very high name recognition, and I could have sworn it was California.  What are the other two's name recognition numbers?
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jfern
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« Reply #48 on: March 05, 2006, 08:22:26 pm »


There's a race where all the candidates have very high name recognition, and I could have sworn it was California.  What are the other two's name recognition numbers?

Busted, Bush apoligist.

Ratings in the Field poll released a couple of days ago:

Schwarzenegger: 44% favorable, 49% unfavorable, 7% no opinion
Angelides: 24% favorable, 13% unfavorable, 63% no opinion
Westly: 19% favorable, 9% unfavorable, 72% no opinion.



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jfern
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« Reply #49 on: March 05, 2006, 08:23:25 pm »

Somewhat optimistic, hopefully Democrats can't catch Arnold and fall behind in PA.
Arnold is toast.

Election:  8 months away.
No one knows any better than anyone else who will win, and I think he will.

If all predictions are equally likely, why don't you predict that Senators Kennedy and Hatch will both be defeated?
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