Break DownRepublicans: 23 (-5)
Democrats: 27 (+5)
Democrats are very well positioned in New York but while he’ll win I’d expect Spitzer to be forced into more of a fight by Bill Weld than the polls might now suggest.
There are good signs that the Democrats will also score pickups in Maryland and Massachusetts, more competitive races where the Democrats are, on balance, favoured will take place in Ohio, Arkansas and Alaska.
Despite Schwarzenegger’s weakness the Democrats have little in the way of a strong candidate and most importantly a compelling and attractive narrative of how to solve the state’s fiscal woes; consequently I’d expect Arnie’s campaigning flare to trump the best efforts of the Democrats to oust him from office next fall.
Iowa will be a close contest but I’d expect Jim Nussle to win by a clear margin after a very competitive campaign, in Minnesota GOP Governor Tim Pawlenty is also likely to be re-elected by a clear margin but will probably have a healthy contest on his hands all the same.
While Alabama, Colorado, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee and Wisconsin are likely to see competive races the incumbents (or incumbent parties) are probably going to hold on to the governor’s mansions in those states.
The 2007 contests will be interesting as they will enable use to finally see what political impact the population shifts that followed Katrina will have.
Prior to Katrina, Haley Barbour was struggling however Barbour emerged from the aftermath of the hurricane well but importantly the gubernatorial contest will occur over two years after Katrina and Barbour is unlikely to draw as much benefit from his handling of the crisis as he might of done had his campaign for re-election been in 2005/06 rather than 2007. What is more Barbour may have a strong Democratic candidates be if current AG Jim Hood or former AG Mike Moore (assuming of course Moore hasn’t been elected to the senate the year before
)… if neither runs then Barbour will probably win over nominal opposition, yet I think a competitive and close race is most likely.
Kathleen Blanco’s handling of Katrina was widely pilloried and her approval number have all but collapsed, its interesting that prior to Katrina, unlike Babour, she was doing alright and would probably have won a fairly easy re-election. But even though Blanco relied less on the solidly Democratic Afro-American communities of New Orleans than other Democratic state office holders the huge depopulation of that area and combined with the widespread criticism of her handling of the aftermath of the hurricane means that she will probably draw a top-tier GOP opponent and will be defeated, that is of course if she survives the primary… the Democrats in the end might be better to dump her and nominate a less tarnished more competive candidate for governor such as Lt.Governor Mitch Landrieu or even former Senator John Breaux (who has expressed interest in the post in the recent past).
While Louisiana might provide bad news for Democrats, Kentucky will probably cheer them up. The State GOP and incumbent Governor Ernie Fletcher are mired in scandal on an enormous scale and what makes it even worse is that Fletcher is likely to seek re-election in 2007 making a divisive GOP primary a likelihood, on top of this the state’s democratic party can boast a number of powerful candidates such as the 03 candidate and current congressman Ben Chandler and state auditor Jonathan Miller. So on balance while Louisiana is likely to tip to the GOP, Mississippi likely to provide a close contest, Kentucky is a probable Democratic pick-up.
