KS-Sen: Kobach trails Grissom by 10 in NRSC internal

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Wow...

Grissom (D): 52%
Kobach (R): 42%

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/campaign-wire-election-2020/card/1568806880

[Yellowhammer]

Kobach must be stopped

[Politician]

I think they're releasing this to send a message "Kobach is unelectable"

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Great news, I knew Grissom was electable

[Zaybay]

Interesting, its an R internal as well...

[Skye]

I think they're releasing this to send a message "Kobach is unelectable"

Pretty much. It's obvious they don't want him. Even Trump already came out against him.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DEMS will have their majority; CO, AZ, ME and KS will be 50 seats for them. Time for Cook to change KS to tossup

[Frenchrepublican]

I think they're releasing this to send a message "Kobach is unelectable"

Pretty much. It's obvious they don't want him. Even Trump already came out against him.

It’s also my opinion

[Pollster]

Clearly a "stop Kobach" alarm, and the fact that they released this with no primary numbers means he is likely leading.

[Pollster]

Buried tidbits within the article:

Poll was from early June, so nearly three months old and conducted before both Kobach and Grissom entered the race.

The poll also showed a generic Republican beating a generic Democrat for Senate in Kansas, 44% to 36%—suggesting that Mr. Kobach underperformed the generic ballot.

Every single other Republican tested in a general election scenario led the Democrat by at least eight points.

The poll found Mr. Kobach's image rating underwater across the state, at 32% favorable vs. 50% unfavorable. And there was a strong intensity to voters' negative reactions to his image, with 39% strongly unfavorable toward Mr. Kobach vs. 15% strongly favorable. Among independent voters, his image rating was a net 24 percentage points weaker than President Trump’s.

Also notes that the poll contains a 150 oversample of likely GOP primary voters (indicating they have primary numbers they are not releasing).

[DrScholl]

Trying to "stop Kobach" only gives him an anti-establishment message to run on. If he can play the victim he can get the conservative votes he needs to win.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

They also released a poll showing Roy Moore trailing Doug Jones by 12% in an effort to get Moore to drop out of the race, and that was obviously BS. This is just a gimmick to get Kobach to drop out or pressure Trump to endorse someone else

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They also released a poll showing Roy Moore trailing Doug Jones by 12% in an effort to get Moore to drop out of the race, and that was obviously BS. This is just a gimmick to get Kobach to drop out or pressure Trump to endorse someone else

Or is it a wave, there can be a wave, you know. McConnell and Cornyn are only ahead by 1 and Tillis is behind by 2.. Watch 2019 Govs in rural KY and LA, if they go decisively against the GOP, which they should be sweeping, then, the wave, may indeed happen

[MT Treasurer]

Probably slightly exaggerated, but if there’s any Senate race in a "red" state which Republicans could easily lose in 2020, it’s this one.

Even without Kobach, this likely flips before Iowa.

[UWS]

This poll demonstrates why Rob Marshall should be the Republican senatorial nominee because he’s definitely more electable than Kobach who already lost a gubernatorial election in such a red state like Kansas.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Krazy Kris Kobach.

[SnowLabrador]

Junk poll. No way Kobach is down by 10 to a no-name opponent. Plus, we know McConnell wants Kobach out of the race, even though he'd likely easily defeat Grissom thanks to polarization.

[IceSpear]

But Atlas told me Kobach was inevitable if he won the primary and that KS trending D is fake news!

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

But Atlas told me Kobach was inevitable if he won the primary and that KS trending D is fake news!

I don’t think that, but I don’t buy him losing a Senate race by 10 points with Trump on the ballot after he just lost a gubernatorial race in a blue wave by only half that margin. I think this is just McConnell trying to put his thumb on the scale like he did in trying to get Moore to drop out in Alabama

[Comrade Funk]

But Atlas told me Kobach was inevitable if he won the primary and that KS trending D is fake news!

Where

[IceSpear]

But Atlas told me Kobach was inevitable if he won the primary and that KS trending D is fake news!

I don’t think that, but I don’t buy him losing a Senate race by 10 points with Trump on the ballot after he just lost a gubernatorial race in a blue wave by only half that margin. I think this is just McConnell trying to put his thumb on the scale like he did in trying to get Moore to drop out in Alabama

Oh yeah, he definitely wouldn't lose by 10 points, that's for sure. But it definitely pours cold water all over the "Kobach is inevitable even though he just lost less than a year ago because something something Senate vs. gubernatorial!" takes. I mean really, does anyone genuinely believe that if you turned Kobach vs. Kelly into a Senate race and kept literally everything else (including his -20 approval rating) identical he would've won in a landslide in 2018? At best he would've won narrowly.

But Atlas told me Kobach was inevitable if he won the primary and that KS trending D is fake news!

Where

Multiple posters in the megathread.

[morgieb]

Definitely taking it with a grain of salt but....ooofff. Though Kobach only getting 43% in 2018 is a clear cut sign it's far from a Safe R race with him as the nominee.

[MT Treasurer]

But Atlas told me Kobach was inevitable if he won the primary and that KS trending D is fake news!

Where

Several posters unironically believe Kobach couldn’t possibly lose the general election because of "polarization", "Senate race" and "presidential year", so this is hardly a straw man lol.

[Pericles]

But Atlas told me Kobach was inevitable if he won the primary and that KS trending D is fake news!

Where

Several posters unironically believe Kobach couldn’t possibly lose the general election because of "polarization", "Senate race" and "presidential year", so this is hardly a straw man lol.

None of those arguments are that wrong tbh, Kobach is a bad candidate but he'd be favored if he's the nominee. The Republican base won't nominate a proven loser though.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Carl Brewer has endorsed Barry Grissom, like he did he did Kelly. Barry Grissom can still win this race