KS-Sen: Kobach trails Grissom by 10 in NRSC internal

[Dr. Arch]

Safe D KS coming soon to theaters near you, lol.

[ElectionsGuy]

I don't really believe this but like Gianforte in Montana, why would Republicans want to double down on a loser and put this seat in danger?

[Dr. Arch]

I don't really believe this but like Gianforte in Montana, why would Republicans want to double down on a loser and put this seat in danger?

They'd sooner double down on their belief that their voters are as partisan as they are ill informed, and it has shown to bear results, see MT.

[MT Treasurer]

But Atlas told me Kobach was inevitable if he won the primary and that KS trending D is fake news!

Where

Several posters unironically believe Kobach couldn’t possibly lose the general election because of "polarization", "Senate race" and "presidential year", so this is hardly a straw man lol.

None of those arguments are that wrong tbh, Kobach is a bad candidate but he'd be favored if he's the nominee. The Republican base won't nominate a proven loser though.

No, they are ridiculously simplistic and in many cases wrong. "Polarization" (which on this site is generally used as a vague buzzword to "explain" why every Senate or gubernatorial race in a Republican-leaning state is supposedly Safe R) is hardly a recent phenomenon, and it certainly hasn’t stopped red state Democrats from doing well in Senate races, e.g. Kander, Tester, Manchin, Brown. Kobach is a far worse candidate than Blunt running in a more Democratic state, he could definitely lose that race.

[MT Treasurer]

I don't really believe this but like Gianforte in Montana, why would Republicans want to double down on a loser and put this seat in danger?

Yeah, because Gianforte is totally comparable to Kobach and Fox has never lost a statewide race before.

[Skye]

But Atlas told me Kobach was inevitable if he won the primary and that KS trending D is fake news!

Where

Several posters unironically believe Kobach couldn’t possibly lose the general election because of "polarization", "Senate race" and "presidential year", so this is hardly a straw man lol.

None of those arguments are that wrong tbh, Kobach is a bad candidate but he'd be favored if he's the nominee. The Republican base won't nominate a proven loser though.

No, they are ridiculously simplistic and in many cases wrong. "Polarization" (which on this site is generally used as a vague buzzword to "explain" why every Senate or gubernatorial race in a Republican-leaning state is supposedly Safe R) is hardly a recent phenomenon, and it certainly hasn’t stopped red state Democrats from doing well in Senate races, e.g. Kander, Tester, Manchin, Brown. Kobach is a far worse candidate than Blunt running in a more Democratic state, he could definitely lose that race.

I get that KS seems to be trending D, but I wouldn't say it's a more Democratic state than MO, at least not significantly.

That said, Kobach could very well lose. He's that awful.

[ElectionsGuy]

I don't really believe this but like Gianforte in Montana, why would Republicans want to double down on a loser and put this seat in danger?

Yeah, because Gianforte is totally comparable to Kobach and Fox has never lost a statewide race before.

No, Kobach is worse, but they are comparable in that they both would damage Republican chances. And Fox lost to Bullock by 5 in an AG race in 2008, only performing 7 points worse than McCain, rather than 24 points worse than Trump. Gianforte and Kobach both lost by similar margins in gubernatorial races, Gianforte improving on that performance by 8 for the House doesn't make him that much better than whatever Kobach ends up getting in the general if he gets the nomination.

[Pericles]

But Atlas told me Kobach was inevitable if he won the primary and that KS trending D is fake news!

Where

Several posters unironically believe Kobach couldn’t possibly lose the general election because of "polarization", "Senate race" and "presidential year", so this is hardly a straw man lol.

None of those arguments are that wrong tbh, Kobach is a bad candidate but he'd be favored if he's the nominee. The Republican base won't nominate a proven loser though.

No, they are ridiculously simplistic and in many cases wrong. "Polarization" (which on this site is generally used as a vague buzzword to "explain" why every Senate or gubernatorial race in a Republican-leaning state is supposedly Safe R) is hardly a recent phenomenon, and it certainly hasn’t stopped red state Democrats from doing well in Senate races, e.g. Kander, Tester, Manchin, Brown. Kobach is a far worse candidate than Blunt running in a more Democratic state, he could definitely lose that race.

They're not perfect but they're good guidelines. Yes, split-ticket voting has decreased, especially in federal races. And gubernatorial races are overall less polarized than Senate races, unless you think Charlie Baker would win a Senate race by a landslide in Massachusetts and JBE would have beaten Vitter for Senate. Vitter btw is a great case study in this since voters didn't penalize him for his scandals federally but did gubernatorially. While parties can dramatically overperform partisan leans in federal races, it is much easier for them to do so in gubernatorial races overall, and it is valid to raise this, while it is rare for parties to overperform enough to win in states that lean as strongly to the other party like Kansas. And even when there are federal overperformances, the size of them is decreasing overall-for instance Manchin winning by 3% instead of by 24%. This difference between federal races and state races makes sense, gubernatorial races are effected by state-specific issues more than Senate races, Kobach as the gubernatorial candidate had no shot of being the 51st vote for Kavanaugh or to repeal Obamacare and so on. Even if Bevin loses, McConnell will still probably win in a landslide. Kobach won't be dragged down by Brownback's legacy but instead will be boosted by federal issues, it will be much harder in a Senate race for him to run 15-20 points behind Trump. I won't entirely rule out the possibility of Kobach losing (and people make predictions with 100% confidence on Atlas far too much and then act foolishly overconfident about them), but he would have a clear advantage-probably even in another blue wave-rather than it just being a repeat of the 2018 gubernatorial election. It's foolish to just handwave away legitimate points like this.

[Sir Mohamed]

Mr. Kobach could blow this race, I agree, if the GOP has a bad night. But by 10%? Nah, that's way too optimistic.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Probably slightly exaggerated, but if there’s any Senate race in a "red" state which Republicans could easily lose in 2020, it’s this one.

Even without Kobach, this likely flips before Iowa.

lol no

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Probably slightly exaggerated, but if there’s any Senate race in a "red" state which Republicans could easily lose in 2020, it’s this one.

Even without Kobach, this likely flips before Iowa.

lol no

KS, NC, CO and AZ can very well flip the senate without ME and IA, Ernst and Collins have been pragmatic, and very well can win again. KS is an open seat, and Kris Kobach ran a bad Gubernatorial campaign.

[Brittain33]

Probably slightly exaggerated, but if there’s any Senate race in a "red" state which Republicans could easily lose in 2020, it’s this one.

Even without Kobach, this likely flips before Iowa.

Kansas last elected a Democrat to Senate in 1932 and last voted for a Democrat for President in 1964... for Iowa, it's 2008 and 2012.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It doesnt matter, Sebelius and Kelly won and Oman nearly defeated Roberts. I am putting it, along with AZ, CO and NC, when Senate maps come out as Lean D takeover

[Sir Mohamed]

It doesnt matter, Sebelius and Kelly won and Oman nearly defeated Roberts. I am putting it, along with AZ, CO and NC, when Senate maps come out as Lean D takeover

Gov races = / = senate races

And losing 42/53 like Orman did isn't "nearly defeating".

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well, KS is replacing MO as more Dem trending. But, Nicole Galloway has a chance in Gubernatorial contest

[Gracile]

It's not hard to believe that this race would end up on the fringes of competitiveness should Kobach enter the race, but him losing by 10 is not believable. As others have said, this poll seems to be a way for the NRSC to stop Kobach from getting the nomination and possibly dissuade Trump from endorsing him.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This poll should be concerning for the GOP, it is a crack in the red wall states, and they are having problems in AZ, as well as NC.

The 2018 House elections have taught us, a blue wave and expanding the map beyond 279 blue wall, will ensure Dems are successful

[Alben Barkley]

They also released a poll showing Roy Moore trailing Doug Jones by 12% in an effort to get Moore to drop out of the race, and that was obviously BS. This is just a gimmick to get Kobach to drop out or pressure Trump to endorse someone else

And then Moore lost. Obviously not by 12%, but still. They proved to be correct that the seat was in serious danger if he was the nominee. That's not just a "gimmick," it's a huge red flag.

[Yoda]

Any good polling on the republican primary here? I'd feel a lot better about jumping on this bandwagon if i actually knew kobach was leading the pack.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

But Atlas told me Kobach was inevitable if he won the primary and that KS trending D is fake news!

I don’t think that, but I don’t buy him losing a Senate race by 10 points with Trump on the ballot after he just lost a gubernatorial race in a blue wave by only half that margin. I think this is just McConnell trying to put his thumb on the scale like he did in trying to get Moore to drop out in Alabama

Oh yeah, he definitely wouldn't lose by 10 points, that's for sure. But it definitely pours cold water all over the "Kobach is inevitable even though he just lost less than a year ago because something something Senate vs. gubernatorial!" takes. I mean really, does anyone genuinely believe that if you turned Kobach vs. Kelly into a Senate race and kept literally everything else (including his -20 approval rating) identical he would've won in a landslide in 2018? At best he would've won narrowly.

But Atlas told me Kobach was inevitable if he won the primary and that KS trending D is fake news!

Where

Multiple posters in the megathread.

IIRC you were among those doing so (could’ve been IndyRep though).

[MT Treasurer]

IIRC you were among those doing so (could’ve been IndyRep though).

Uh, no? It could not have been IndyRep because IndyRep never bought the "Kobach is inevitable/this race is Safe R" takes. So what are you talking about?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

IIRC you were among those doing so (could’ve been IndyRep though).

Uh, no? It could not have been IndyRep because IndyRep never bought the "Kobach is inevitable/this race is Safe R" takes. So what are you talking about?

It must’ve been IceSpear then, but I remember one of the main posters who dabbles in your guys schtick was pretty dismissive of the possibility Kobach could even come close to losing.  I suppose there’s also that L-NJ guy, but don’t think it was him.  Btw, any particular reason you’re referring to yourself in third person?

[IceSpear]

IIRC you were among those doing so (could’ve been IndyRep though).

Uh, no? It could not have been IndyRep because IndyRep never bought the "Kobach is inevitable/this race is Safe R" takes. So what are you talking about?

It must’ve been IceSpear then, but I remember one of the main posters who dabbles in your guys schtick was pretty dismissive of the possibility Kobach could even come close to losing.  I suppose there’s also that L-NJ guy, but don’t think it was him.  Btw, any particular reason you’re referring to yourself in third person?

It wasn't me either. I had it as a toss up the entire year. You can verify that on my predictions page. You are correct there were a chunk of posters that thought Kobach was inevitable though.

[MT Treasurer]

It must’ve been IceSpear then, but I remember one of the main posters who dabbles in your guys schtick

What schtick, out of curiosity? I’m actually fairly cautious when it comes to predicting races in most swing/red states (with some exceptions like KY-SEN, but certainly not KY-GOV or KS-SEN). And while I do believe that trends are indeed real, I certainly don’t think they’re the only factor which matters (I have MN-07 2020 and MS-GOV/KY-GOV 2019 all as Tossup/Tilt R, for instance).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Senate is no longer a freiwal, for GOP: AK, AZ, CO, GA, KS, KY, ME, NC and TX are all in play for pickups by Dems