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  How likely is this future? (mini-TL)
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Author Topic: How likely is this future? (mini-TL)  (Read 869 times)
Sir Mohamed
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« on: September 19, 2019, 02:45:51 am »
« edited: September 19, 2019, 02:54:04 am by Sir Mohamed »

How likely would you say are these election results in the 2020s?


The 2020 election: The Democrats nominate Elizabeth Warren, who won the nomination with a massive grassroots campaign. She manages to defeat Donald Trump, whose approval rating was below 40% on election day due to multiple scandals and a slowing economy. The Republican Party retains control of the senate, Democrats keep the House.



✓ Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)/Governor Steve Bullock (D-MT): 289 EVs.; 49.8%
President Donald Trump (R-NY)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN): 249 EVs.; 46.7%


The Warren Administration and 2024: The Warren presidency started off with immediate battles over legislation, executive and judical nominees, as the GOP-controlled senate strongly opposes her policies and candidates. Ultimately, she manages to undo most of Trump's legacy by exeutive action. President Warren also replaced RGB and Stephen Breyer on SCOTUS, but had to nominate more moderate candidates to win senate approval. However, legislative successes are rare and by 2022, the economy slipped into recession. The GOP picks up the House in the midterms and keeps the senate, blocking any of Warren's agenda.

As the 2024 election approaches, a divided GOP field results into the nomination of FL Governor Ron DeSantis. Polls were neck-in-neck and a slowly improving economy gave the Warren campaign hope to hang on. But Warren has lost some of her appeal among progressive activists. A depressed turnout and youthful campaign by DeSantos leads to his victory, who can start govern with congressional majorities. For the first time since 2004, the GOP wins a narrow PV plurality.



✓ Governor DeSantis (R-FL)/Senator Joni Ernst (R-IA): ~ 295 EVs.; 48.9%
President Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)/Vice President Steve Bullock (D-MT): ~240 EVs.; 48.6%


The DeSantis Administration and 2028: Upon getting into office, President Ron DeSantis had high approvals. He passed a tax cut to stimulate the economy and didn't rescind some executive actions by Warren to protect the environment. But quitely, his administration starts to dismantle the welfare state to "balance the budget". DeSantis remains relatively popular over the first half of his term. With the GOP narrowly keeping te House, reelection initally looked likely. But by 2027, the economy starts tanking badly and the president seemed out of touch with the American people. He also got involved into an unpopular war.

In 2028, Democrats turned to former MI governor Gretchen Whitmer, who capitalized on DeSantis' unpopularity and benefited from changing demographics. The election turned out to be a realignment, with Dems making major gains in the Sun Belt and winning comfortable majorities in congress.

The 2028 election became the 3rd consecutive election with a sitting prez losing reelection. Following 3 two termers (Clinton, Bush and Obama), America had 3 one-termers (Trump, Warren and DeSantis).



✓ Former Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI)/Senator Ben Ray LujŠn (D-NM): ~ 400 EVs.; 54.0%
President Ron DeSantis (R-FL)/Vice President Joni Ernst (R-IA): ~ 135 EVs.; 44.7%
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MarkD
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« Reply #1 on: September 19, 2019, 07:44:41 am »

I can believe most of it. However, in 2028, if TX and SC are red, so too would be OH and WI and maybe even UT. But for the most part, it's pretty plausible.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #2 on: September 20, 2019, 09:23:50 am »

I can believe most of it. However, in 2028, if TX and SC are red, so too would be OH and WI and maybe even UT. But for the most part, it's pretty plausible.

I doubt UT will vote Dem in the next 50 years, if not longer.
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Dirty Dan
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« Reply #3 on: September 20, 2019, 12:51:50 pm »

I can believe most of it. However, in 2028, if TX and SC are red, so too would be OH and WI and maybe even UT. But for the most part, it's pretty plausible.

I doubt UT will vote Dem in the next 50 years, if not longer.

It is an interesting story.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #4 on: September 21, 2019, 01:39:01 pm »

The 3 incumbents losing in a row thing is plausible, but the most likely scenario for that is the economy crashes during 2021-24 and hasn't really recovered by 2028.   

I also think your PV/EC scenario doesn't work.  Warren needs more than that PV margin to win the EC against Trump, and I also doubt a GOP nominee from Florida and with a strong enough Sunbelt appeal to hold down all of the Trump 2016 states would have an EC advantage like Trump.  DeSantis is probably winning Florida by at least 5 in a close election.

Also, an open Dem primary in 2028 basically screams binary JPK III vs. AOC showdown, but I do agree the moderate wing would prevail after a President Warren lost reelection (in a President Pence 2028 scenario, I think it would go the other way).  Whitmer would probably be old news by 2028 and I don't think she is overwhelmingly popular in Michigan as it is.

 
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #5 on: September 22, 2019, 11:59:58 am »

Pretty plausible, especially the three one-term Presidents aspect.

Two recessions in the 2020s seems a little improbable but those are impossible to predict.
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Thegreatwar18
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« Reply #6 on: September 24, 2019, 07:21:14 pm »

I could very well see this occurring, Though like the poster above me already said, Itíll probably be a recession in 2021-22 that takes years to recover from. Wonder what the 28í democratic field looks like.
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538Electoral
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« Reply #7 on: September 25, 2019, 01:19:04 pm »

Maybe this could happen?
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Dirty Dan
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« Reply #8 on: September 26, 2019, 08:21:25 am »

I could very well see this occurring, Though like the poster above me already said, Itíll probably be a recession in 2021-22 that takes years to recover from. Wonder what the 28í democratic field looks like.

If Trump wins because thereís a positive narrative about the economy and thereís a different narrative emerging thereafter, maybe that would give Democrats an opportunity to really shake things up downballot. That could cause a wave in 2022 to overcome a lot of the institutional barriers to change. Maybe because they missed their shot at gerrymandering, they will do a lot of work behind the scenes at political reform.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #9 on: September 28, 2019, 07:52:54 pm »

I definitely see Whitmer vs. DeSantis as a plausible race, with either one having an equal chance of winning.
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dw93
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« Reply #10 on: September 29, 2019, 07:36:54 pm »

It's plausible. Say Warren beats Trump despite a good economy because Trump is Trump and get saddled with a recession sometime between 2022 and 2024 and loses to a Republican who's the worst of Bush and Trump rolled into one. Said Republican has a scandal and a neocon's dream of a war and the Democrats ride that to victory in 2028. Or hell, just have Biden or Bernie beat Trump, decline to run again in 2024 due to age, and have the GOP nominee beat their VP.
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