How likely is this future? (mini-TL) (user search)
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  How likely is this future? (mini-TL) (search mode)
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Author Topic: How likely is this future? (mini-TL)  (Read 1159 times)
Skill and Chance
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« on: September 21, 2019, 01:39:01 PM »

The 3 incumbents losing in a row thing is plausible, but the most likely scenario for that is the economy crashes during 2021-24 and hasn't really recovered by 2028.   

I also think your PV/EC scenario doesn't work.  Warren needs more than that PV margin to win the EC against Trump, and I also doubt a GOP nominee from Florida and with a strong enough Sunbelt appeal to hold down all of the Trump 2016 states would have an EC advantage like Trump.  DeSantis is probably winning Florida by at least 5 in a close election.

Also, an open Dem primary in 2028 basically screams binary JPK III vs. AOC showdown, but I do agree the moderate wing would prevail after a President Warren lost reelection (in a President Pence 2028 scenario, I think it would go the other way).  Whitmer would probably be old news by 2028 and I don't think she is overwhelmingly popular in Michigan as it is.

 
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