2020 Poll Hype Thread

[Gass3268]

We had a hype thread in 2016, figured 2020 could use one as well.

https://twitter.com/DMRegister/status/1175077683979530242?s=20

[Matty]

Selzer laid a nice steamer before 2016 Iowa caucus

[Gass3268]

Selzer laid a nice steamer before 2016 Iowa caucus

She was off bad on the Republican side, but was only off by about 2.5 on the Democratic side.

[Gracile]

Selzer laid a nice steamer before 2016 Iowa caucus

She's still probably the gold standard when it comes to Iowa - her final GE poll in 2016 was right on the money.

[AngryBudgie]

Yeah, Selzer was right on the money with the dem caucus in 2016. Still, 3 candidates vs 20 candidates(with atleast 7 of them brining in a decent chunk of support) will be alot more difficult to pin down.

[The Other Castro]

What’s the point, we all know Wayne Messam is going to win.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1175084018888581120

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

What’s the point, we all know Wayne Messam is going to win.

You owe me a new keyboard to replace the one I soaked with what I was drinking when I read that

[Eraserhead]

For reference, the last DM Register Poll was done in early June and these were the numbers:

Biden 24%
Sanders 16%
Warren 15%
Buttigieg 14%
Harris 7%
Klobuchar 2%
O'Rourke 2%

Everyone else at 1% or less.

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/06/07/top2_ia_saturday.pdf

[GeneralMacArthur]

Warren 24%
Biden 21%
Buttigieg 16%
Sanders 12%
Harris 6%
Klobuchar 5%
Steyer 4%
O'Rourke 3%
Yang 2%
Booker 2%
Gabbard 2%
Delaney 1%
Bullock 1%
The rest 0%

[JGibson]

Warren 23%
Biden 19%
Buttigieg 15%
Sanders 12%
Harris 6%
Klobuchar 5%
O'Rourke 5%
Yang 4%
Steyer 3%
Gabbard 2%
Booker 2%
Others 4%

[Tender Branson]

Biden and Warren @ 24% each (+/- 2%).

Sanders @ 17%.

Buttigieg @ 10%.

Harris @ 7%.

Yang and Steyer @ 3%.

Tulsi @ 2% and another qualifying poll for her.

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

Randall's Prediction:

Warren - 25%
Biden - 23%
Sanders - 12%
Buttigieg - 11%
Harris - 4%
Klobuchar - 3%
Steyer - 3%
O'Rourke - 2%
Yang - 2%
Booker - 2%
Rest 1% or less

[Torrain]

Shoot, 7pm CST? Guess posting on Atlas at 1am local time it is.

For my money, I'd go for Warren/Biden in the top two slots, with Sanders on their heels, and everyone doing middlingly poor.

I'm most interested in the order of the lower candidates though. Polling convinced de Blasio to quit, and I'll be interested to see whether anyone half-serious like Bennet takes tonight's polling as the excuse to bow out. Put it this way, if you're running behind Delaney, it's going to be hard to keep on justifying your campaign to your remaining donors.

[Gass3268]

New qualifying poll coming tomorrow from New Hampshire:

https://twitter.com/ZachMontellaro/status/1176156401460232192

[Politician]

Prediction:

25% Warren
23% Sanders
22% Biden
11% Harris
8% Buttigieg
4% Yang
3% O'Rourke
2% Gabbard
2% Steyer
1% Castro

[Eraserhead]

Will there be a bunch of talk about how Monmouth is a junk poll because they use small samples again?

I predict that if Sanders is leading there will be. If Biden or Warren is leading, there won't be.

[Politician]

Will there be a bunch of talk about how Monmouth is a junk poll because they use small samples again?

I predict that if Sanders is leading there will be. If Biden or Warren is leading, there won't be.

LOL yeah, if Sanders leads Atlas will junk the poll. If Warren leads Atlas will cream its pants.

[Gracile]

Will there be a bunch of talk about how Monmouth is a junk poll because they use small samples again?

I predict that if Sanders is leading there will be. If Biden or Warren is leading, there won't be.

That was a pretty dumb thing for a lot of people to get worked up about. Virtually all of Monmouth's sample sizes are 300.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Will there be a bunch of talk about how Monmouth is a junk poll because they use small samples again?

I predict that if Sanders is leading there will be. If Biden or Warren is leading, there won't be.

That was a pretty dumb thing for a lot of people to get worked up about. Virtually all of Monmouth's sample sizes are 300.

Well, it will still be interesting to see if Gabbard gets a 4th qualifying poll.

[SN2903]

Prediction:

Warren 26%
Biden 21%
Buttigieg 14%
Sanders 12%
Harris 6%
O'Rourke 5%
Klobuchar 4%
Gabbard 3%
Yang 2%
Booker 1%

[Mr. Morden]

Suffolk will release a Nevada poll tomorrow morning:

https://twitter.com/brianduggan/status/1176272063071313920

[Eraserhead]

I don't think Suffolk has polled Nevada before this cycle but...

These were the numbers from the last Monmouth poll of New Hampshire:

Joe Biden   36%
Bernie Sanders   18%
Pete Buttigieg   9%
Elizabeth Warren   8%
Kamala Harris   6%
Cory Booker   2%
Amy Klobuchar   2%
Beto O’Rourke   2%
John Hickenlooper   1%
Tim Ryan   1%
Andrew Yang   1%
Steve Bullock   <1%
John Delaney   <1%
Tulsi Gabbard   <1%
Kirsten Gillibrand   <1%
Marianne Williamson   <1%
Michael Bennet   0%
Julián Castro   0%
Bill de Blasio   0%
Mike Gravel   0%
Jay Inslee   0%
Wayne Messam   0%
Seth Moulton   0%
Eric Swalwell   0%
(VOL) No one   <1%
(VOL) Undecided   11%

This was done during Biden's homeymoon after announcing so I'm at least expecting his and Warren's numbers to be very different this time.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_NH_050919/

[rhg2052]

Suffolk will release a Nevada poll tomorrow morning:

https://twitter.com/brianduggan/status/1176272063071313920

Is Suffolk on its own a debate qualifier or just USA Today/Suffolk?

[The Other Castro]

This is Suffolk/USAT/RGJ. It definitely counts for October since it has USAT. But, for November only the pairing of USAT/Suffolk is allowed, and this has an additional group attached, so it may prevent it from counting for November