2020 Poll Hype Thread

[Eraserhead]

Emerson doesn't include undecideds. It was Biden +6 last time.

Biden + 7 actually. The new one is Biden +3.

[OBD]

I'm guessing the colors are primary votes (like the live polls in 2018), but I can't decipher anything out of it.

[indietraveler]

I would guess green is Sanders. Green seems to be more concentrated. Look at Polk, Johnson and Linn counties. Scott county has a strong green as well.

The purplish color is Biden or Pete. Just as present but not as dense, scattered in the more rural counties. There's also a strong purple tone in northern Johnson/southern Linn which would be the suburban corridor between IC & CR.

Blue is Warren?

[Queen Isuelt]

10 colors I can see
pink
green
purple
blue
grey
red
yellow
light blue
dark blue
dark pink
brown (page county)

one color could be for don't knows/refused.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Concentration of caucus-goers based on their preferred candidate?

Location of campaign offices and/or organizers?

[Cinemark]

10 colors I can see
pink
green
purple
blue
grey
red
yellow
light blue
dark blue
dark pink
brown (page county)

one color could be for don't knows/refused.

I think one color is also for people who got filtered out.

[Adam Griffin]

I think:

• Green is Sanders (pretty obvious distribution lining up with Sanders' demographics)
• Pink is Buttigieg (prevalent in the eastern half in both rural and urban, but not western half)
• Blue is Biden (decent distribution everywhere)
• Gray is Klobuchar (clustered in northern half of the state, close to MN)
• Purple is Warren (only color left that's somewhat prominent)

[Technocracy Timmy]

https://twitter.com/WarrenButtigieg/status/1220875647268130816

[Adam Griffin]

Also let's just remember that:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1220867053021810689

[Tender Branson]

I guess this will be a February debate qualifying poll, because it’s NYT and their previous IA poll counted as well.

[Mr. Morden]

I guess this will be a February debate qualifying poll, because it’s NYT and their previous IA poll counted as well.

No, it won't be, because none of the Iowa polls counts towards inclusion in the Feb. 7th debate, since the debate in question happens after the caucuses, so polls of Iowa are kind of meaningless at that point.  It's Iowa *caucus results* that determine debate invitations, along with NH/NV/SC and national polls (and donor counts).

[Terry the Fat Shark]

https://twitter.com/TrackerDebate/status/1220800411767955456

lots of polls incoming this coming week

The CBS/YouGov poll is confirmed to include Iowa and some Super Tuesday States as well

[Terry the Fat Shark]

https://twitter.com/TrackerDebate/status/1220797394284998663
update:

ISU's final poll will be out on Thursday

Monmouth IA poll coming out sometime before the Caucus as well

[ElectionsGuy]

Can't wait. I just want Iowa to happen already.

[bilaps]

https://twitter.com/TrackerDebate/status/1220800411767955456

lots of polls incoming this coming week

The CBS/YouGov poll is confirmed to include Iowa and some Super Tuesday States as well

I'm going to junk those yougov polls up front.

Looking forward to those NH polls, Fox national is ok, just would've liked more if they polled IA

[Ebsy]

After looking through a recent YouGOV polling memo I have serious concerns about their methodology. They simply ask way, way, way too many questions to respondents. I have to wonder what their completion rate is and if it interferes with their toplines.

[GeorgiaModerate]

After looking through a recent YouGOV polling memo I have serious concerns about their methodology. They simply ask way, way, way too many questions to respondents. I have to wonder what their completion rate is and if it interferes with their toplines.

You might be surprised by how long the typical respondent will stay on the phone.

That suggests something about response bias in any telephone poll: People who don't feel a sense of obligation or desire to participate just refuse; those who do will answer eagerly and at length even on subjects in which they have neither interest nor considered opinions.

I wouldn't stay on the phone for thirty questions either, but my odds of voluntarily responding to a pollster at all are nil.

YouGov is online, though.  It's a lot easier, or at least more convenient, to answer a long survey using a browser than to stay on the phone a lont time.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Can't wait. I just want Iowa to happen already.

Me too. It's going to be the first election in awhile where I don't actively care about the results and can just sit back and watch it unfold.

[Pollster]

Online polling when conducted properly is just as reliable as phone polling when conducted properly.

Methodology, not mode, is what matters.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1221228677356310534

ABC National poll tonight at Midnight Eastern

(found thanks to OneJ)

[OkThen]

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1221228677356310534

ABC National poll tonight at Midnight Eastern

(found thanks to OneJ)

https://twitter.com/ArjavRawal/status/1221242600440524801?s=20

Maybe Bernie tied or ahead? That's my guess.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1221228677356310534
ABC National poll tonight at Midnight Eastern

(found thanks to OneJ)

They decide to release their results at midnight on a Saturday night?  What the heck?

[OneJ]

All these new polls getting released and we have yet to see something from Nevada.

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/ArjavRawal/status/1221242600440524801?s=20

Maybe Bernie tied or ahead? That's my guess.

Could be that if the celebration is a celebration of the poll numbers unto themselves.  But if we're actually talking about real world impact from the poll, then the other obvious possibility is Yang getting 5% or more, which puts him within striking distance of qualification for the next debate.

[Bidenworth2020]

definitely a bernie surge, wouldnt make much sense to say this if biden, the consistent frontrunner, was leading.