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November 17, 2019, 07:39:26 am
News: 2020 Presidential Predictions (General) are now active.

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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, Speaker YE, Senator ON Progressive)
  IA-Selzer: Warren 22, Biden 20, Sanders 11, Buttigieg 9, Harris 6
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Author Topic: IA-Selzer: Warren 22, Biden 20, Sanders 11, Buttigieg 9, Harris 6  (Read 2354 times)
Senator ON Progressive
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« on: September 21, 2019, 06:40:39 pm »
« edited: September 21, 2019, 07:07:13 pm by Senator ON Progressive »

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/09/21/desmoinescnnpoll.pdf

Warren 22
Biden 20
Sanders 11
Buttigieg 9
Harris 6
Booker/Klobuchar 3
Gabbard/O'Rourke/Steyer/Yang 2
Bullock/Castro/Delaney 1
Bennet/Williamson <1
de Blasio/Ryan/Sestak 0

Changes compared to June (pre-debates):
Warren +7
Biden -4
Sanders -5
Buttigieg -5
Harris -1
Booker +2
Klobuchar +1
Gabbard +1
O'Rourke =
Steyer +2 (new)
Yang +1
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1 on: September 21, 2019, 06:41:59 pm »

Warren!

Also this is a qualifying poll for Gabbard.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2019, 06:46:15 pm »

So...all of the significant players lost while Warren gained.  Another excellent poll for Warren, and one that shows her in the lead.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #3 on: September 21, 2019, 06:49:41 pm »

Under age 35:
Warren 27%
Sanders 22%
Biden 9%
Buttigieg 9%

Over age 55:
Biden 29%
Warren 17%
Buttigieg 8%
Klobuchar 5%

men:
Biden 24%
Warren 16%
Sanders 15%
Buttigieg 10%

women:
Warren 27%
Biden 18%
Buttigieg 9%
Sanders 9%

“very liberal”:
Warren 48%
Sanders 20%
Biden 7%
Buttigieg 7%
Harris 7%

“liberal”:
Warren 24%
Biden 14%
Buttigieg 14%
Sanders 12%

“moderate”:
Biden 31%
Warren 10%
Buttigieg 8%
Sanders 6%

Warren leads in “cities” and “suburbs”.  Biden leads in “towns” and “rural areas”.
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GeneralMacArthur
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« Reply #4 on: September 21, 2019, 06:51:48 pm »

Well, my prediction was within 2 points on everyone except for Buttigieg.

Warren 24% (+2)
Biden 21% (+1)
Buttigieg 16% (+7)
Sanders 12% (+1)
Harris 6% (=)
Klobuchar 5% (+2)
Steyer 4% (+2)
O'Rourke 3% (+1)
Yang 2% (=)
Booker 2% (-1)
Gabbard 2% (=)
Delaney 1% (=)
Bullock 1% (=)
The rest 0% (Missed Castro's 1%)
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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: September 21, 2019, 06:53:30 pm »

Wow, Sanders isn't even in the top 4 for those over 55. That's a a death sentence.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #6 on: September 21, 2019, 07:03:24 pm »

The Des Moines Register poll should be dropping any second now, given they said they'd release it at 7.  I wonder what that one will say.
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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #7 on: September 21, 2019, 07:03:44 pm »

The Des Moines Register poll should be dropping any second now, given they said they'd release it at 7.  I wonder what that one will say.

That poll is literally the poll posted.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #8 on: September 21, 2019, 07:04:53 pm »

Wow, Sanders isn't even in the top 4 for those over 55. That's a a death sentence.

Let's hope so.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #9 on: September 21, 2019, 07:05:00 pm »

The Des Moines Register poll should be dropping any second now, given they said they'd release it at 7.  I wonder what that one will say.

That poll is literally the poll posted.
Oooh.  Looks like it got leaked to the press early. 
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #10 on: September 21, 2019, 07:10:26 pm »

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2019/09/22/iowa-poll-election-2020-iowa-caucus-elizabeth-warren-joe-biden-bernie-sanders-democrat-candidates/2370015001/#

2nd choice:
Warren 20%
Biden 10%
Harris 10%
Sanders 10%
Buttigieg 9%
Booker 4%
Klobuchar 4%
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Zaybay
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« Reply #11 on: September 21, 2019, 07:10:57 pm »

Trendline is excellent for Warren's campaign, especially due to the overall importance of IA. I wonder if this means Biden and Sanders will change strategy when it comes to her rise.
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gracile
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« Reply #12 on: September 21, 2019, 07:13:09 pm »

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SN2903
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« Reply #13 on: September 21, 2019, 07:15:23 pm »

Good news for Trump. Biden is a better general election candidate than Warren despite his flaws
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #14 on: September 21, 2019, 07:16:06 pm »

fav/unfav % among Dems:
Warren 75/17% for +58%
Buttigieg 69/13% for +56%
Harris 63/24% for +39%
Booker 60/22% for +38%
Biden 66/29% for +37%
Klobuchar 52/22% for +30%
O’Rourke 55/27% for +28%
Sanders 58/36% for +22%
Yang 36/32% for +4%
Castro 35/36% for -1%
Bennet 20/23% for -3%
Bullock 18/23% for -5%
Gabbard 26/31% for -5%
Steyer 27/32% for -5%
Sestak 7/21% for -14%
Ryan 13/28% for -15%
Delaney 17/34% for -17%
Williamson 9/48% for -39%
de Blasio 12/54% for -42%

That's a lot of candidates with underwater favorability among their own party.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #15 on: September 21, 2019, 07:17:05 pm »

fav/unfav % among Dems:
Warren 75/17% for +58%
Buttigieg 69/13% for +56%
Harris 63/24% for +39%
Booker 60/22% for +38%
Biden 66/29% for +37%
Klobuchar 52/22% for +30%
O’Rourke 55/27% for +28%
Sanders 58/36% for +22%
Yang 36/32% for +4%
Castro 35/36% for -1%
Bennet 20/23% for -3%
Bullock 18/23% for -5%
Gabbard 26/31% for -5%
Steyer 27/32% for -5%
Sestak 7/21% for -14%
Ryan 13/28% for -15%
Delaney 17/34% for -17%
Williamson 9/48% for -39%
de Blasio 12/54% for -42%

That's a lot of candidates with underwater favorability among their own party.


Essentially it's folks telling them to drop out.
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SN2903
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« Reply #16 on: September 21, 2019, 07:18:08 pm »

Is Tulsi in the October debate now?
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OkThen
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« Reply #17 on: September 21, 2019, 07:20:20 pm »

Bernie at only +22 favorability is not great. Also Harris only at 6? Hasn't she been doubling down on Iowa?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #18 on: September 21, 2019, 07:20:32 pm »


I think she needs one more.
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Still couldn't quell the Bel
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« Reply #19 on: September 21, 2019, 07:24:26 pm »

Liz!!! While she'll want to beat Biden by more than 2 in Iowa ideally, she definitely has the momentum right now. Pretty weak for Sanders and Buttigieg, and especially Harris.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #20 on: September 21, 2019, 07:33:53 pm »

Great news, Warren-Beto 2020
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #21 on: September 21, 2019, 07:35:06 pm »

Anyone else excited to see Shadow's aneurysm over this poll
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Queen Liz <3
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« Reply #22 on: September 21, 2019, 08:06:35 pm »

Queen Liz is inevitable
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Beshear al Assad
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« Reply #23 on: September 21, 2019, 08:12:47 pm »

Iowa sure does love its neoliberals.
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Speaker YE
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« Reply #24 on: September 21, 2019, 08:21:13 pm »


It’s poking fun at the Sanders supporters who think Warren is a neoliberal.
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