Maps with alternative EC distribution

[Karpatsky]

Just a data dump for now, until I figure out how to make it look good, but I figured you all would be interested. For each party, this shows the % of ECs they carried in each year, and the EC years which maximize and minimize this percentage, and if this would flip the election. For instance, in 1916 Hughes won 48% of ECs, but that result mapped onto the 1864 map would have given him 72%. Conversely, that mapped onto the 2012 map would have given him 34%. I have also included third parties where relevant, subdivided into South-based and non-South based. Note that Federalists, Anti-Jacksonians, and Whigs are mapped onto Republicans, while Dem-Reps are mapped onto Democrats.

Also, this is just the maximum and minimum values - I have a full matrix comparing every election against every other election for each party. If you are interested in EC values for any particular matchup, post it below and I will post the values.

Democrats

1789: 0%. Best map: 1789 with 0%. Worst map: 1789 with 0%.
1792: 0%. Best map: 1789 with 0%. Worst map: 1789 with 0%.
1796: 49%. Best map: 1804 with 49%. Worst map: 1864 with 16%.
1800: 57%. Best map: 1812 with 61%. Worst map: 2012 with 22% (flip).
1804: 93%. Best map: 1804 with 93%. Worst map: 2012 with 34% (flip).
1808: 76%. Best map: 1812 with 77%. Worst map: 2012 with 31% (flip).
1812: 61%. Best map: 1812 with 61%. Worst map: 2012 with 24% (flip).
1816: 84%. Best map: 1816 with 84%. Worst map: 2012 with 36% (flip).
1820: 100%. Best map: 1789 with 100%. Worst map: 2012 with 49% (flip).
1824: 41%. Best map: 1844 with 45%. Worst map: 2012 with 27%.
1828: 72%. Best map: 1832 with 75%. Worst map: 2012 with 38% (flip).
1832: 75%. Best map: 1844 with 75%. Worst map: 2012 with 39% (flip).
1836: 58%. Best map: 1820 with 59%. Worst map: 2012 with 32% (flip).
1840: 20%. Best map: 1789 with 30%. Worst map: 2012 with 13%.
1844: 62%. Best map: 1844 with 62%. Worst map: 2012 with 34% (flip).
1848: 44%. Best map: 1884 with 46%. Worst map: 1812 with 24%.
1852: 86%. Best map: 1789 with 88%. Worst map: 1912 with 72%.
1856: 59%. Best map: 1852 with 59%. Worst map: 1864 with 39% (flip).
1860: 3%. Best map: 1864 with 5%. Worst map: 1789 with 0%.
1864: 9%. Best map: 1789 with 11%. Worst map: 2012 with 5%.
1868: 27%. Best map: 1789 with 37%. Worst map: 2012 with 18%.
1872: 18%. Best map: 1832 with 19%. Worst map: 1864 with 12%.
1876: 50%. Best map: 1796 with 62% (flip). Worst map: 1984 with 39%.
1880: 42%. Best map: 1796 with 52% (flip). Worst map: 1864 with 22%.
1884: 55%. Best map: 1789 with 69%. Worst map: 1864 with 41% (flip).
1888: 42%. Best map: 1789 with 59% (flip). Worst map: 1864 with 21%.
1892: 61%. Best map: 1789 with 69%. Worst map: 1864 with 53%.
1896: 39%. Best map: 2012 with 42%. Worst map: 1864 with 7%.
1900: 35%. Best map: 1820 with 39%. Worst map: 1864 with 11%.
1904: 30%. Best map: 1796 with 45%. Worst map: 1864 with 8%.
1908: 34%. Best map: 1796 with 45%. Worst map: 1864 with 9%.
1912: 82%. Best map: 1789 with 88%. Worst map: 1992 with 75%.
1916: 52%. Best map: 2012 with 64%. Worst map: 1864 with 28% (flip).
1920: 24%. Best map: 1792 with 36%. Worst map: 1864 with 5%.
1924: 26%. Best map: 1796 with 35%. Worst map: 1864 with 0%.
1928: 16%. Best map: 1789 with 27%. Worst map: 1864 with 7%.
1932: 89%. Best map: 2012 with 91%. Worst map: 1789 with 69%.
1936: 98%. Best map: 1789 with 100%. Worst map: 1820 with 93%.
1940: 85%. Best map: 1789 with 100%. Worst map: 1864 with 81%.
1944: 81%. Best map: 1789 with 100%. Worst map: 1864 with 72%.
1948: 57%. Best map: 2012 with 65%. Worst map: 1789 with 33% (flip).
1952: 17%. Best map: 1836 with 24%. Worst map: 1864 with 7%.
1956: 14%. Best map: 1844 with 20%. Worst map: 1864 with 5%.
1960: 55%. Best map: 1789 with 79%. Worst map: 2012 with 49% (flip).
1964: 90%. Best map: 1864 with 100%. Worst map: 1789 with 85%.
1968: 36%. Best map: 1789 with 53% (flip). Worst map: 2004 with 32%.
1972: 3%. Best map: 1789 with 12%. Worst map: 2012 with 3%.
1976: 55%. Best map: 1812 with 73%. Worst map: 1992 with 54%.
1980: 9%. Best map: 1789 with 16%. Worst map: 1852 with 7%.
1984: 2%. Best map: 1964 with 2%. Worst map: 1789 with 0%.
1988: 21%. Best map: 1864 with 33%. Worst map: 2012 with 19%.
1992: 69%. Best map: 1864 with 93%. Worst map: 2012 with 66%.
1996: 70%. Best map: 1864 with 93%. Worst map: 1792 with 67%.
2000: 50%. Best map: 1864 with 69% (flip). Worst map: 2012 with 47%.
2004: 47%. Best map: 1789 with 70% (flip). Worst map: 1896 with 46%.
2008: 68%. Best map: 1792 with 88%. Worst map: 1908 with 64%.
2012: 62%. Best map: 1789 with 85%. Worst map: 1908 with 58%.
2016: 43%. Best map: 1789 with 73% (flip). Worst map: 1896 with 37%.

Republicans

1789: 0%. Best map: 1789 with 0%. Worst map: 1789 with 0%.
1792: 0%. Best map: 1789 with 0%. Worst map: 1789 with 0%.
1796: 51%. Best map: 1789 with 58%. Worst map: 2012 with 16% (flip).
1800: 36%. Best map: 1789 with 38%. Worst map: 2012 with 9%.
1804: 7%. Best map: 1789 with 12%. Worst map: 2004 with 2%.
1808: 24%. Best map: 1789 with 31%. Worst map: 2012 with 5%.
1812: 39%. Best map: 1789 with 48%. Worst map: 2012 with 13%.
1816: 16%. Best map: 1789 with 25%. Worst map: 2012 with 4%.
1820: 0%. Best map: 1789 with 0%. Worst map: 1789 with 0%.
1824: 33%. Best map: 1792 with 38%. Worst map: 2012 with 12%.
1828: 28%. Best map: 1789 with 48%. Worst map: 2012 with 11%.
1832: 19%. Best map: 1789 with 35%. Worst map: 2012 with 8%.
1836: 42%. Best map: 1789 with 48%. Worst map: 2012 with 21%.
1840: 80%. Best map: 1832 with 80%. Worst map: 2012 with 40% (flip).
1844: 38%. Best map: 1796 with 52% (flip). Worst map: 2012 with 19%.
1848: 56%. Best map: 1812 with 76%. Worst map: 2012 with 35% (flip).
1852: 14%. Best map: 1812 with 23%. Worst map: 2012 with 6%.
1856: 39%. Best map: 1864 with 50%. Worst map: 2012 with 21%.
1860: 60%. Best map: 1864 with 82%. Worst map: 2012 with 46% (flip).
1864: 91%. Best map: 1864 with 91%. Worst map: 2012 with 54%.
1868: 73%. Best map: 1868 with 73%. Worst map: 1789 with 48% (flip).
1872: 82%. Best map: 1864 with 88%. Worst map: 2012 with 69%.
1876: 50%. Best map: 1864 with 59%. Worst map: 1796 with 38% (flip).
1880: 58%. Best map: 1864 with 78%. Worst map: 2012 with 37% (flip).
1884: 45%. Best map: 1864 with 59% (flip). Worst map: 1789 with 31%.
1888: 58%. Best map: 1864 with 79%. Worst map: 1789 with 41% (flip).
1892: 34%. Best map: 1864 with 44%. Worst map: 2012 with 24%.
1896: 61%. Best map: 1864 with 93%. Worst map: 2012 with 52%.
1900: 65%. Best map: 1864 with 89%. Worst map: 2012 with 57%.
1904: 70%. Best map: 1864 with 92%. Worst map: 1796 with 55%.
1908: 66%. Best map: 1864 with 91%. Worst map: 1796 with 55%.
1912: 2%. Best map: 1812 with 4%. Worst map: 1789 with 0%.
1916: 48%. Best map: 1864 with 72% (flip). Worst map: 2012 with 34%.
1920: 76%. Best map: 1864 with 95%. Worst map: 1792 with 64%.
1924: 72%. Best map: 1864 with 97%. Worst map: 1796 with 65%.
1928: 84%. Best map: 1864 with 93%. Worst map: 1789 with 73%.
1932: 11%. Best map: 1789 with 31%. Worst map: 2012 with 8%.
1936: 2%. Best map: 1820 with 7%. Worst map: 1789 with 0%.
1940: 15%. Best map: 1864 with 19%. Worst map: 1789 with 0%.
1944: 19%. Best map: 1864 with 28%. Worst map: 1789 with 0%.
1948: 36%. Best map: 1789 with 58% (flip). Worst map: 2012 with 27%.
1952: 83%. Best map: 1864 with 93%. Worst map: 1836 with 76%.
1956: 86%. Best map: 1864 with 95%. Worst map: 1844 with 80%.
1960: 41%. Best map: 2012 with 47%. Worst map: 1789 with 21%.
1964: 10%. Best map: 1789 with 15%. Worst map: 1864 with 0%.
1968: 56%. Best map: 2004 with 59%. Worst map: 1789 with 41% (flip).
1972: 97%. Best map: 2012 with 97%. Worst map: 1789 with 88%.
1976: 45%. Best map: 1992 with 46%. Worst map: 1812 with 27%.
1980: 91%. Best map: 1852 with 93%. Worst map: 1789 with 84%.
1984: 98%. Best map: 1789 with 100%. Worst map: 1964 with 98%.
1988: 79%. Best map: 2012 with 81%. Worst map: 1864 with 67%.
1992: 31%. Best map: 2012 with 34%. Worst map: 1864 with 7%.
1996: 30%. Best map: 1792 with 33%. Worst map: 1864 with 7%.
2000: 50%. Best map: 2012 with 53%. Worst map: 1864 with 31% (flip).
2004: 53%. Best map: 1896 with 54%. Worst map: 1789 with 30% (flip).
2008: 32%. Best map: 1908 with 36%. Worst map: 1792 with 12%.
2012: 38%. Best map: 1908 with 42%. Worst map: 1789 with 15%.
2016: 57%. Best map: 1896 with 63%. Worst map: 1789 with 27% (flip).

South-based Independents

1824: 14%. Best map: 1789 with 25%. Worst map: 1864 with 1%.
1832: 4%. Best map: 1789 with 9%. Worst map: 1864 with 0%.
1860: 24%. Best map: 1789 with 28%. Worst map: 1864 with 4%.
1948: 7%. Best map: 1844 with 11%. Worst map: 1864 with 0%.
1960: 4%. Best map: 1844 with 5%. Worst map: 1789 with 0%.
1968: 8%. Best map: 1844 with 12%. Worst map: 1864 with 0%.

Non-South-based Independents

1824: 11%. Best map: 1864 with 14%. Worst map: 1789 with 0%.
1832: 2%. Best map: 1812 with 4%. Worst map: 1789 with 0%.
1856: 3%. Best map: 1789 with 10%. Worst map: 1912 with 2%.
1860: 13%. Best map: 1804 with 21%. Worst map: 1864 with 5%.
1892: 5%. Best map: 2012 with 5%. Worst map: 1789 with 0%.
1912: 17%. Best map: 1992 with 22%. Worst map: 1832 with 10%.
1924: 2%. Best map: 1864 with 3%. Worst map: 1789 with 0%.

[Orser67]

Some random thoughts:

* I like how you split up independents into South-based and non-South based; I've always felt there was some continuity there. It makes sense that the most successful third party combination was Breckinridge (maybe the most successful Southern third party candidate ever) with the earliest possible map (when the South's power was at its apogee).

*Between 1856 and 1956, the best GOP map was almost always 1864, when most of the South didn't vote. After 1956, the best Democratic map has often been 1864.

*Kerry's map in 2004 probably would have been enough to win the vast majority of elections. The post-1960 GOP coalition of states would do quite poorly in most eras (or, on the flip side, the current Democratic coalition of states is poorly optimized for today)

*The Federalists always did best with the earliest possible maps since the West had no representation, whereas the Whigs actually had some appeal in the West.

*It's interesting how often 1812 came up as a "best" map. Not sure what's up with that. It's also interesting that, starting in 2004, the GOP's best map suddenly became either 1896 or 1908.

[Karpatsky]

Some random thoughts:

* I like how you split up independents into South-based and non-South based; I've always felt there was some continuity there. It makes sense that the most successful third party combination was Breckinridge (maybe the most successful Southern third party candidate ever) with the earliest possible map (when the South's power was at its apogee).

*Between 1856 and 1956, the best GOP map was almost always 1864, when most of the South didn't vote. After 1956, the best Democratic map has often been 1864.

*Kerry's map in 2004 probably would have been enough to win the vast majority of elections. The post-1960 GOP coalition of states would do quite poorly in most eras (or, on the flip side, the current Democratic coalition of states is poorly optimized for today)

*The Federalists always did best with the earliest possible maps since the West had no representation, whereas the Whigs actually had some appeal in the West.

*It's interesting how often 1812 came up as a "best" map. Not sure what's up with that. It's also interesting that, starting in 2004, the GOP's best map suddenly became either 1896 or 1908.

Re: Kerry, it seems that way but only from a recentish standpoint; that map only wins 38% of elections - it wins every election to 1872 bar 1848, then loses every election to 1964, then wins to 1980, then loses to the present.

Re: 1812, it is interesting - I suspect it is because it is the last election before much of what would become the industrial Midwest started to vote, so it is something of a high point for the relative power of the South compared to the entire rest of the nation. That would explain 1976 at minimum. It is also on the tail end of the highest period of average Dem EC advantage.