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December 14, 2019, 07:53:53 am
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  Predict when these counties flip R>D.
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Author Topic: Predict when these counties flip R>D.  (Read 647 times)
walleye26
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« on: September 23, 2019, 08:16:27 pm »

These traditionally Red counties are trending blue. Based on current trends, predict the presidential year that the following counties vote Democrat:
Johnson, KS
Ozaukee, WI
Tarrant, TX
Collin, TX
Hamilton, IN
Salt Lake, UT
St Croix, WI
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xingkerui
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« Reply #1 on: September 23, 2019, 08:20:47 pm »

Salt Lake went Democratic in 2016, and I suspect it will again in 2020. Johnson is almost certain to flip Democratic in 2020, and I think Tarrant has a decent chance of flipping as well. Those are the only three I think might go Democratic next year. Collin, Hamilton, and Ozaukee will likely tighten, but especially the last two are probably at least a dozen years away from being competitive, probably more for the last two. As for St. Croix, I'm not sure to what extent that county is trending Democratic, so much as it isn't trending Republican like other Northern Wisconsin counties.
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Landslide Warren
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« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2019, 04:47:16 pm »

Salt Lake already voted blue in 2016/2008, it voting D isn't new.

Johnson is a Tossup, Tarrant is Likely R. The others are not competitive in the slightest LMFAO
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gracile
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« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2019, 04:50:27 pm »

Aside from Salt Lake (which already went D), Johnson is very likely to flip next year. Tarrant is possible as well, but I think it will be around 2024 when it votes Democratic. The others are hard to see for at least another decade.
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redjohn
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« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2019, 05:11:02 pm »

Ozaukee: Voted Republican by about 16 points when a Democrat won the state by 11 points. It's about 28 points to the right of Wisconsin's popular vote. It's not going Democratic on the Presidential level for a long time, if ever
Johnson: 2020
Tarrant: 2020 or 2024
Collin: Maybe in a couple cycles if things go very badly for Republicans... Hard to say, but not likely for a while
Hamilton: Not happening for a while... Will only happen if there's a huge Democratic swing in Indiana, which I don't see on the far horizons
Salt Lake: Like others have said, it's already gone D. Could very possibly happen again in 2020
St. Croix: Another example, like Ozaukee, of a county not even within five points with Dems winning by eleven statewide. Yes, it might slowly trend D, but it's not flipping for a while
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #5 on: September 29, 2019, 11:11:58 am »

2028 or later(most likely later)-Ozaukee, St. Croix
Hamilton, Collin- 2024
Tarrant, Johnson- 2020
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #6 on: October 29, 2019, 06:18:54 pm »

2028 or later(most likely later)-Ozaukee, St. Croix
Hamilton, Collin- 2024
Tarrant, Johnson- 2020

I agree with this. O'Rourke narrowly won Tarrant over Cruz by a few thousand votes last year, and came within single digits in Collin County (and in Denton County as well, another county which I think will flip Democratic sometime in the next decade or two). Collin, Denton, and Tarrant all used to be staunchly Republican counties, and were part of the reason why Texas became a Safe Republican state in the first place. It is fitting that they are now pushing Texas into the tossup column, and back towards the Democrats. As for Johnson County, it is virtually guaranteed to flip in 2020. Trump only got a narrow plurality there, and it went by a landslide for Democratic Governor Laura Kelly last year, in addition to voting for Sharice Davids by a comfortable margin over Kevin Yoder.

Hamilton County is definitely more Democratic than it used to be, but it is still a Republican county. Trump will win it in 2020, with his performance there probably matching his performance in Indiana as a whole (like it did in 2016). I know nothing about St. Croix County, but Ozaukee County is one of the historically Republican WOW counties around Milwaukee. Tammy Baldwin did do better in WOW last year than Democrats have traditionally done, but still lost them by wide margins to Leah Vukmir. Ozaukee will remain loyal to Trump in 2020, and will, with its sisters Washington, Waukesha, and Walworth, be a critical component to his carrying Wisconsin again. But it's possible that WOW might trend Democratic further in the future, and in two or three decades, they could conceivably be tossup counties.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7 on: October 29, 2019, 11:19:20 pm »

These traditionally Red counties are trending blue. Based on current trends, predict the presidential year that the following counties vote Democrat:
Johnson, KS
Ozaukee, WI
Tarrant, TX
Collin, TX
Hamilton, IN
Salt Lake, UT
St Croix, WI

I'm not going to speculate on the two counties in Wisconsin.  The others can all go D if Donald Trump has a catastrophic loss in his re-election bid, in which case  a county such as Collin in Texas or Hamilton in Indiana goes anomalously D, as if an unusual wave of summer-like warmth gives a place like Indianapolis temperatures characteristic of June -- in March.

Tarrant did go for Beto O'Rourke in 2018, so the warning signs are in place in Texas suburbs. Tarrant is almost as suburban as urban.

Trump is the worst match ever for Republicans among well-educated voters. His anti-intellectualism goes beyond wayward college professors and film stars to such people as accountants and engineers. He is the worst GOP match for Mormons since the early 1950's. Eisenhower seemingly cemented the Mormon vote for the Republican Party in 1952... probably by showing that conservatism was no longer a threat to Mormons.

Trump is practically a fascist, and he did worse in Utah in 2016 than Goldwater did in 1964. Mormons have good cause to support equity at law among religions because Mormons see people of all other religious traditions as fair game for proselytization, and want such people within reach of Mormon missionaries.

After 2024 I expect a Republican rebound should the GOP not go into or stay in disarray. Even so, the stench of the Trump Presidency must recede. 
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