These traditionally Red counties are trending blue. Based on current trends, predict the presidential year that the following counties vote Democrat:
Johnson, KS
Ozaukee, WI
Tarrant, TX
Collin, TX
Hamilton, IN
Salt Lake, UT
St Croix, WI
I'm not going to speculate on the two counties in Wisconsin. The others can all go D if Donald Trump has a catastrophic loss in his re-election bid, in which case a county such as Collin in Texas or Hamilton in Indiana goes anomalously D, as if an unusual wave of summer-like warmth gives a place like Indianapolis temperatures characteristic of June -- in March.
Tarrant did go for Beto O'Rourke in 2018, so the warning signs are in place in Texas suburbs. Tarrant is almost as suburban as urban.
Trump is the worst match ever for Republicans among well-educated voters. His anti-intellectualism goes beyond wayward college professors and film stars to such people as accountants and engineers. He is the worst GOP match for Mormons since the early 1950's. Eisenhower seemingly cemented the Mormon vote for the Republican Party in 1952... probably by showing that conservatism was no longer a threat to Mormons.
Trump is practically a fascist, and he did worse in Utah in 2016 than Goldwater did in 1964. Mormons have good cause to support equity at law among religions because Mormons see people of all other religious traditions as fair game for proselytization, and want such people within reach of Mormon missionaries.
After 2024 I expect a Republican rebound should the GOP not go into or stay in disarray. Even so, the stench of the Trump Presidency must recede.
