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November 13, 2019, 10:44:47 pm
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  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, Speaker YE)
  NV-Suffolk: Biden 23 Warren 19 Sanders 14 Harris 4
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Author Topic: NV-Suffolk: Biden 23 Warren 19 Sanders 14 Harris 4  (Read 604 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: September 24, 2019, 09:04:27 am »

Dem. caucus poll of Nevada by Suffolk / USA Today / Reno Gazette-Journal:

https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/other-states/2019/9_24_2019_marginals_pdftxt.pdf

Biden 23%
Warren 19%
Sanders 14%
Harris 4%
Buttigieg 3%
Yang 3%
Steyer 3%
Booker 2%
Bullock 1%
O’Rourke 1%
Bennet 1%
Castro 1%
Gabbard 1%
de Blasio, Delaney, Klobuchar, Ryan, Sestak, Williamson 0%
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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #1 on: September 24, 2019, 09:06:31 am »

LOL Harris
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #2 on: September 24, 2019, 09:10:39 am »

#Sandersdropout
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rhg2052
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« Reply #3 on: September 24, 2019, 09:10:52 am »

This is a November debate qualifier, right? If so, the top five have locked, Yang has 2 polls, and Steyer is on the board with 1.
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Arch
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« Reply #4 on: September 24, 2019, 09:12:18 am »

So, Warren is positioned to potentially win all of IA, NH, and NV. Well, that would be a wrap if she manages it.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #5 on: September 24, 2019, 09:13:13 am »


This coming from a guy with a Harris signature. Hilarious.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #6 on: September 24, 2019, 09:16:04 am »

Who would be your 2nd choice?
Warren 19%
Biden 16%
Sanders 12%
Harris 10%
Buttigieg 7%
Booker 4%
O’Rourke 4%
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Gass3268
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« Reply #7 on: September 24, 2019, 09:16:56 am »

This is a November debate qualifier, right? If so, the top five have locked, Yang has 2 polls, and Steyer is on the board with 1.

You have to get 5% or more in an early state to get the state qualification. So this poll only helps the top 3.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #8 on: September 24, 2019, 09:17:12 am »


It's a Biden v. Warren race, I said this more than once.
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AngryBudgie
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« Reply #9 on: September 24, 2019, 09:19:15 am »

So, Warren is positioned to potentially win all of IA, NH, and NV. Well, that would be a wrap if she manages it.

Not necessarily if she doesn't make inroads with black and Hispanic voters at that point. But she'd be the front runner.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #10 on: September 24, 2019, 09:28:01 am »


It's a Biden v. Warren race, I said this more than once.

So I guess literally everyone else should just drop out, right?

Tell Sen. Harris to hit the bricks then. She's struggling against Andrew Yang at this point.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #11 on: September 24, 2019, 09:28:36 am »

This is a November debate qualifier, right? If so, the top five have locked, Yang has 2 polls, and Steyer is on the board with 1.

You have to get 5% or more in an early state to get the state qualification. So this poll only helps the top 3.

The 3% still counts for total polling though as well. (Also DNC just announced it does count for Nov)
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rhg2052
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« Reply #12 on: September 24, 2019, 09:28:58 am »

This is a November debate qualifier, right? If so, the top five have locked, Yang has 2 polls, and Steyer is on the board with 1.

You have to get 5% or more in an early state to get the state qualification. So this poll only helps the top 3.

Right, but early state polls also count for regular inclusion i.e. 3% in 4 polls. It's just that getting 5% in 2 early state polls is a different way to qualify.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #13 on: September 24, 2019, 09:41:32 am »

This is a November debate qualifier, right? If so, the top five have locked, Yang has 2 polls, and Steyer is on the board with 1.

You have to get 5% or more in an early state to get the state qualification. So this poll only helps the top 3.

The 3% still counts for total polling though as well. (Also DNC just announced it does count for Nov)

Got it, kinda confusing.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #14 on: September 24, 2019, 09:43:10 am »

With Reid's machine at her disposal, Warren must be considered the favorite in Nevada. 
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Queen Liz <3
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« Reply #15 on: September 24, 2019, 09:48:23 am »

Queen Liz!!!
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Skye
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« Reply #16 on: September 24, 2019, 09:53:22 am »

A far cry from the last poll, which had Sanders leading the field.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #17 on: September 24, 2019, 09:54:10 am »

A far cry from the last poll, which had Sanders leading the field.

Different pollster.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #18 on: September 24, 2019, 09:57:31 am »

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Skye
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« Reply #19 on: September 24, 2019, 10:03:07 am »

A far cry from the last poll, which had Sanders leading the field.

Different pollster.

Yes, but earning only half the support is quite the difference, even if it's from another pollster.
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Calm NH Lib
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« Reply #20 on: September 24, 2019, 10:04:12 am »

Really terrible for Bernie. If Warren clearly wins Iowa and New Hampshire, and then ends up winning Nevada or coming very close to Biden, I will be pretty pissed if Bernie doesn't drop out shortly after. To be clear, I support Bernie and Warren equally. However, there simply needs to be one progressive candidate to take on Biden that progressives need to coalesce behind.
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Pollster
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« Reply #21 on: September 24, 2019, 10:08:56 am »

So, Warren is positioned to potentially win all of IA, NH, and NV. Well, that would be a wrap if she manages it.

Gotta respect the strategy she's employed, and her team has executed it perfectly.
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GeneralMacArthur
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« Reply #22 on: September 24, 2019, 10:18:39 am »

With Reid's machine at her disposal, Warren must be considered the favorite in Nevada. 

Why would Reid's machine be at her disposal?
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Xing
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« Reply #23 on: September 24, 2019, 10:22:19 am »

Nevada often gets less attention than Iowa or New Hampshire, but I expect it could be the closest of the first four states.

So, Warren is positioned to potentially win all of IA, NH, and NV. Well, that would be a wrap if she manages it.

She'd definitely be in good shape, but she'd need to get at least 15% in SC, and preferably keep Biden's margin down to 15-20 or so.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #24 on: September 24, 2019, 10:27:56 am »

Nevada often gets less attention than Iowa or New Hampshire, but I expect it could be the closest of the first four states.

So, Warren is positioned to potentially win all of IA, NH, and NV. Well, that would be a wrap if she manages it.

She'd definitely be in good shape, but she'd need to get at least 15% in SC, and preferably keep Biden's margin down to 15-20 or so.

If Warren wins both Iowa and New Hampshire, she and Biden would be the only candidates still seriously in the race by South Carolina. She should be getting 30% or so at least at that point, but it might be 60 Biden - 30 Warren - 10 for the field (although I think in that scenario it would look more than 50 - 40 - 10 as I don't think black voters are that loyal to Biden over Warren, especially in the context of Warren as the clear frontrunner). I don't think getting trampled in South Carolina dooms her, though; the black vote is very important but not dispositive in determining the Democratic nomination, and both Clinton and Obama had other strong bases that Biden lacks (e.g., I can't see Biden winning the Mid-Atlantic states at that point, as Clinton did, or the rural West, as Obama did).
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