NV-Suffolk: Biden 23 Warren 19 Sanders 14 Harris 4

[ON Progressive]

#Sandersdropout

Harris should do it first judging by being barely above Yang.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Nevada often gets less attention than Iowa or New Hampshire, but I expect it could be the closest of the first four states.

So, Warren is positioned to potentially win all of IA, NH, and NV. Well, that would be a wrap if she manages it.

She'd definitely be in good shape, but she'd need to get at least 15% in SC, and preferably keep Biden's margin down to 15-20 or so.

If Warren wins both Iowa and New Hampshire, she and Biden would be the only candidates still seriously in the race by South Carolina. She should be getting 30% or so at least at that point, but it might be 60 Biden - 30 Warren - 10 for the field (although I think in that scenario it would look more than 50 - 40 - 10 as I don't think black voters are that loyal to Biden over Warren, especially in the context of Warren as the clear frontrunner). I don't think getting trampled in South Carolina dooms her, though; the black vote is very important but not dispositive in determining the Democratic nomination, and both Clinton and Obama had other strong bases that Biden lacks (e.g., I can't see Biden winning the Mid-Atlantic states at that point, as Clinton did, or the rural West, as Obama did).

This. If Obama had lost just 10 percent of his black support he could have lost the nomination or if Clinton didn’t dominate with Latinos or suburban White women, Bernie could have gotten closer. Warren can win the nomination without a majority of the black vote. I wouldn’t be surprised to see her outright winning the black vote in the Midwest and California is she effectively weakens Biden’s image as the front runner.

Biden is not as formidable as Clinton and Warren is more Dem friendly than Sanders ever was.

[Xing]

Nevada often gets less attention than Iowa or New Hampshire, but I expect it could be the closest of the first four states.

So, Warren is positioned to potentially win all of IA, NH, and NV. Well, that would be a wrap if she manages it.

She'd definitely be in good shape, but she'd need to get at least 15% in SC, and preferably keep Biden's margin down to 15-20 or so.

If Warren wins both Iowa and New Hampshire, she and Biden would be the only candidates still seriously in the race by South Carolina. She should be getting 30% or so at least at that point, but it might be 60 Biden - 30 Warren - 10 for the field (although I think in that scenario it would look more than 50 - 40 - 10 as I don't think black voters are that loyal to Biden over Warren, especially in the context of Warren as the clear frontrunner). I don't think getting trampled in South Carolina dooms her, though; the black vote is very important but not dispositive in determining the Democratic nomination, and both Clinton and Obama had other strong bases that Biden lacks (e.g., I can't see Biden winning the Mid-Atlantic states at that point, as Clinton did, or the rural West, as Obama did).

This. If Obama had lost just 10 percent of his black support he could have lost the nomination or if Clinton didn’t dominate with Latinos or suburban White women, Bernie could have gotten closer. Warren can win the nomination without a majority of the black vote. I wouldn’t be surprised to see her outright winning the black vote in the Midwest and California is she effectively weakens Biden’s image as the front runner.

Biden is not as formidable as Clinton and Warren is more Dem friendly than Sanders ever was.

She can win without a majority, but she still needs a sizable amount of support. As I said, it'll make a world of difference whether Biden beats her by 20 or 45 in SC. If she and Biden are the only ones with a chance by the time we get to SC and Super Tuesday, I'd say she needs at least 30% of the black vote in the South, and a higher percentage outside of the South.