Predict the Democratic Primaries Round 2: Iowa

[Xing]

I did a series of these threads several months ago:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=320773.msg6810683#msg6810683

People in the poll voted that they would like to see these threads done again in the fall, so here we are, in a very different place. Here's what the previous aggregated prediction map looked like:

Puerto Rico - Biden

Biden
Sanders
Warren

I definitely expect to see some difference this time around, since polling has changed, and I'll include all of the territories this time. Since we're getting a little closer to the primaries, I'll probably do one thread per state, since more can probably be said about where the race stands in each state. While the voting will only be for who will win each state, feel free to make predictions in terms of margin, and rate each state if you'd like (e.g. Tilt Warren, Likely Biden, etc.) Also, if you'd like me to change the colors I used last time, you can suggest a different color scheme. If there seems to be a consensus for a certain color scheme this time around, I'll make the change.

Anyway, starting off with Iowa. My prediction would be a somewhat narrow win for Warren, around the 3-5% range. As for rating, I guess I'd say Toss-Up/Tilt Warren for now, since a lot can still happen, and Warren's lead in the last two polls isn't exactly rock solid.

[eric82oslo]

Here's my prediction for where Yang will finish in the first five early states:

Iowa: 5th
New Hampshire: 2nd or 3rd
Nevada: 1st or 2nd
South Carolina: 4th
California: 1st

[Holmes]

Here's my prediction for where Yang will finish in the first five early states:

Iowa: 5th
New Hampshire: 2nd or 3rd
Nevada: 1st or 2nd
South Carolina: 4th
California: 1st

lol...

[President Johnson]

Joseph R. Biden will win by around five points.

[ElectionsGuy]

Lean Warren. Thanks for doing this again, this time will surely be different than defaulting to 2016 results.

IMO I think this time you should cut out the candidates that have no chance (anybody that hasn't made the 3rd/4th debates) so that the options aren't so cluttered.

[eric82oslo]

Here's my prediction for where Yang will finish in the first five early states:

Iowa: 5th
New Hampshire: 2nd or 3rd
Nevada: 1st or 2nd
South Carolina: 4th
California: 1st

lol...

5th in Iowa is a worst case scenario btw. However he doesn't need to finish any higher in order to be a viable candidate going forward, plus gain momentum from achieving a better result than media and pundits expected. Nevada and New Hampshire will be his best states of the first four, yet it is in the five western-most states he has the strongest support, and in particular in California, due to a combination of the vibrant Asian community there (14-15% of all adults are Asian, and the percentage is even quite a bit higher in the Democratic primary) with California being the state most affected by automation, AI, robots, self-driving vehicles etcetera due to Silicon Valley and all the technology companies with headquarters in the state (and then I didn't even mention the homelessness issue and California being perhaps the US state with the highest income inequality disparity, making it ripe for the UBI idea in combination with taxing tech companies like Amazon, Facebook, Uber and Google). A very high percentage of the YangGang are currently employed in some technology company, many of them as coders, and since most of those companies are situated in California, the canvassing possibilities in the state are almost limitless. The three most prolific YangTubers on YouTube are either living in California (Problem Solver Politics & Asian actress Paget Kagy) or is working as a coder for one of the major tech companies (Nerds For Yang, who works as a coder for YouTube in their regional Switzerland office, also Chinese-American btw).

[Grassroots]

Pete!

[Grassroots]

Here's my prediction for where Yang will finish in the first five early states:

Iowa: 5th
New Hampshire: 2nd or 3rd
Nevada: 1st or 2nd
South Carolina: 4th
California: 1st

Literally no person outside of mommys basement likes Yang. No one.

[libertpaulian]

I'm going to be #bold and predict Pete wins Iowa.

[eric82oslo]

Here's my prediction for where Yang will finish in the first five early states:

Iowa: 5th
New Hampshire: 2nd or 3rd
Nevada: 1st or 2nd
South Carolina: 4th
California: 1st

Literally no person outside of mommys basement likes Yang. No one.

lol. Time to wake up.

How do you explain these results then?

https://twitter.com/AndrewYang/status/1174679206464294913

Yang would easily beat Trump. In this poll he's doing 10 percentage points better than Warren, the current front runner who has sky high net favorability among Dems.

[redjohn]

Warren or Sanders wins Iowa.

[Grassroots]

Here's my prediction for where Yang will finish in the first five early states:

Iowa: 5th
New Hampshire: 2nd or 3rd
Nevada: 1st or 2nd
South Carolina: 4th
California: 1st

Literally no person outside of mommys basement likes Yang. No one.

lol. Time to wake up.

How do you explain these results then?

https://twitter.com/AndrewYang/status/1174679206464294913

Yang would easily beat Trump. In this poll he's doing 10 percentage points better than Warren, the current front runner who has sky high net favorability among Dems.

Is that the only thing you got? The sample size of that poll is extremely small and even if it wasn't, it only shows who people would vote for in a GE, not in the primary, which is what we are talking about. In primary polls, he almost always polls at 4 points or less in New Hampshire, which is his best chance at a victory so you can probably see how terrible his chances in any other states are. I know you like Yang, but you don't need to make stuff up.

[😥]

Joe Biden

[eric82oslo]

Here's my prediction for where Yang will finish in the first five early states:

Iowa: 5th
New Hampshire: 2nd or 3rd
Nevada: 1st or 2nd
South Carolina: 4th
California: 1st

Literally no person outside of mommys basement likes Yang. No one.

lol. Time to wake up.

How do you explain these results then?

https://twitter.com/AndrewYang/status/1174679206464294913

Yang would easily beat Trump. In this poll he's doing 10 percentage points better than Warren, the current front runner who has sky high net favorability among Dems.

Is that the only thing you got? The sample size of that poll is extremely small and even if it wasn't, it only shows who people would vote for in a GE, not in the primary, which is what we are talking about. In primary polls, he almost always polls at 4 points or less in New Hampshire, which is his best chance at a victory so you can probably see how terrible his chances in any other states are. I know you like Yang, but you don't need to make stuff up.

7% twice in California (once ahead of Harris there) and 8% nationally today. And still, most people have hardly heard about him, and certainly don't know much about his policies yet, nor his genuine non-ideological, problem solving personality.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Let’s see how the Ukraine thing drags on, because that could have the effect of Biden/Ttump locking people out of news coverage. For now, I’ll say warren though

[Gracile]

Warren by about 3-5% over Biden.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Warren

[Xing]

IMO I think this time you should cut out the candidates that have no chance (anybody that hasn't made the 3rd/4th debates) so that the options aren't so cluttered.

I was planning on doing that for the contests on Super Tuesday and beyond, but if other posters also want me to limit the poll to the top 5 or 8 or so starting with NH, feel free to say so. I can make that change for the next poll.

[eric82oslo]

IMO I think this time you should cut out the candidates that have no chance (anybody that hasn't made the 3rd/4th debates) so that the options aren't so cluttered.

I was planning on doing that for the contests on Super Tuesday and beyond, but if other posters also want me to limit the poll to the top 5 or 8 or so starting with NH, feel free to say so. I can make that change for the next poll.

As long as Yang is part of it, cause he's gonna win for sure. Gabbard or Steyer should also be included, cause they're both gonna go a looooong way into 2020.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Buttigieg - 22%
Warren - 21%
Biden - 16%
Sanders - 14%
Yang - 3%
Harris - 3%
Klobuchar - 2%
Gabbard - 2%
Delaney - 1%
Steyer - 1%
Booker - 1%
All others less than 0,5%

Bloomberg didn't contest it.

[Mr. Morden]

Is that pre- or post-reallocation of support based on the 15% threshold?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Warren is probably gonna win, but IA and NH arent that important,  as he will contest NV and SC

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Is that pre- or post-reallocation of support based on the 15% threshold?

pre-reallocation

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Harris and Booker probably drops out and endorse respectively Biden and Warren. Warren will win in NH. Sanders carries out a surprising win in Nevada. And Biden wins in South Carolina.

On Super Tuesday, Warren wins California while Biden wins Texas, Alabama, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Arkansas. Sanders wins in Colorado, Utah and Vermont. Warren wins her home state of Massachussets, Minnesota, Maine and Democrats abroad. After Super Tuesday Buttigieg, Warren, Biden and Sanders all stay in the race, with Sanders and Buttigieg as first to drop out. Bloomberg stays in. Yang and Delaney also stay in.

Biden and Warren gain momentum by early VP announcements. Warren eithers chooses Booker or Buttigieg (who immediately drops out to endorse Warren) while Biden announces Harris will be his VP nominee. Sanders loses traction and drops out early March. Bloomberg stays in until May. Delaney and Yang will be spoiler candidates who will stay in until june. We will see a contested convention between Biden and Warren.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

This as primaries map.