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November 13, 2019, 10:59:04 pm
News: 2020 Presidential Predictions (General) are now active.

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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, Speaker YE)
  Berkeley IGS-CA: Warren 29, Biden 20, Sanders 19, Harris 8, Buttigieg 6, Beto 3
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Author Topic: Berkeley IGS-CA: Warren 29, Biden 20, Sanders 19, Harris 8, Buttigieg 6, Beto 3  (Read 885 times)
Gass3268
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« on: September 25, 2019, 07:33:42 am »
« edited: September 25, 2019, 12:06:23 pm by Gass3268 »

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Cory Booker
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« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2019, 07:36:39 am »

Great poll for Warren
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Arch
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« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2019, 08:32:17 am »

Warren is surging everywhere after having built gradual support over months. This is a great sign for her.
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Deranged California Suburbanite
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« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2019, 08:42:34 am »

Reading the article, it sounds like Biden is at 20, not 22. That explains why his trendline is negative even though the numbers on the chart didnít appear to change.

Amazing number for Warren.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2019, 08:45:48 am »

Reading the article, it sounds like Biden is at 20, not 22. That explains why his trendline is negative even though the numbers on the chart didnít appear to change.

Amazing number for Warren.

Correct. Biden is actually only at 20%.
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Speaker OneJ
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« Reply #5 on: September 25, 2019, 09:34:30 am »

Wow, Harris is doing poorly here.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #6 on: September 25, 2019, 09:53:50 am »

I know it's early, but I think Warren will win CA by a fair margin. After that, she will definitely be the frontrunner. (if not sooner)
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Xing
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« Reply #7 on: September 25, 2019, 10:54:05 am »

Liz!!! Winning CA by single digits obviously won't guarantee her the nomination if she loses badly in the South, but I'm really starting to believe she might just win this thing.
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McGovernForPrez
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« Reply #8 on: September 25, 2019, 11:30:38 am »

Harris should just drop out at this point. If polls don't show her winning  or at least doing well in her home state then there's no way she's gonna magically be doing better in Iowa.
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Andy Beshearís Campaign Manager
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« Reply #9 on: September 25, 2019, 04:39:31 pm »

Liz!!! Winning CA by single digits obviously won't guarantee her the nomination if she loses badly in the South, but I'm really starting to believe she might just win this thing.

Sheís also improving fast with black voters though ó enough that she can maybe be at least competitive in the South, more than Bernie was. If she wins big states like CA and does well elsewhere, she can definitely win.

Also yeah Harris campaign is pretty much dead now.
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Interlocutor
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« Reply #10 on: September 26, 2019, 02:08:35 pm »

I'll just repeat what I've been saying about Harris in these CA polls:

California is a huge state & Harris' CA strength lies entirely in San Francisco Bay. Unless you're an 20+ year statewide institution like Feinstein, you can't expect home-state advantage to mount a successful presidential [primary] campaign in California.

The same thing will occur if/when Newsom runs for President.
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« Reply #11 on: September 26, 2019, 02:19:28 pm »

Regional poll numbers

Other Northern CA
Warren:    30%
Sanders:   22%
Harris:      13%
Biden:      12%


San Francisco Bay Area
Warren:    35%
Biden:      16%
Sanders:   14%
Harris:      13%


Central Valley
Sanders:   27%
Warren:    24%
Biden:      20%
Harris:       8%


LA County
Warren:    27%
Biden:      21%
Sanders:   20%
Harris:       7%


Other Southern CA (Inland Empire + Imperial?)
Biden:      28%
Warren:    23%
Sanders:   17%
Harris:       6%


Orange/San Diego
Warren:     32%
Biden:       18%
Sanders:    17%
Harris:        4%
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Holmes
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« Reply #12 on: September 26, 2019, 02:35:07 pm »

Biden's not winning OK, KY or WV like some people think if those northern CA numbers are anything to go by.
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henster
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« Reply #13 on: September 27, 2019, 11:53:02 am »

Klobuchar is struggling in her home state and she has consistently won her elections in landslides. This year there just doesn't seem to be much of a favorite son/daughter boost even among established pols in their states. Even Warren in polls has been trailing in MA. 
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marty
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« Reply #14 on: September 27, 2019, 02:46:51 pm »

Regional poll numbers

Other Northern CA
Warren:    30%
Sanders:   22%
Harris:      13%
Biden:      12%


San Francisco Bay Area
Warren:    35%
Biden:      16%
Sanders:   14%
Harris:      13%


Central Valley
Sanders:   27%
Warren:    24%
Biden:      20%
Harris:       8%


LA County
Warren:    27%
Biden:      21%
Sanders:   20%
Harris:       7%


Other Southern CA (Inland Empire + Imperial?)
Biden:      28%
Warren:    23%
Sanders:   17%
Harris:       6%


Orange/San Diego
Warren:     32%
Biden:       18%
Sanders:    17%
Harris:        4%


Itís extremely interesting to me that sanders and warren combine for half the vote in OC

OC and SD are high income areas with professional class liberals. Interesting that labor-style, economically left wing candidates are doing well there
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Gass3268
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« Reply #15 on: September 27, 2019, 03:14:56 pm »

Regional poll numbers

Other Northern CA
Warren:    30%
Sanders:   22%
Harris:      13%
Biden:      12%


San Francisco Bay Area
Warren:    35%
Biden:      16%
Sanders:   14%
Harris:      13%


Central Valley
Sanders:   27%
Warren:    24%
Biden:      20%
Harris:       8%


LA County
Warren:    27%
Biden:      21%
Sanders:   20%
Harris:       7%


Other Southern CA (Inland Empire + Imperial?)
Biden:      28%
Warren:    23%
Sanders:   17%
Harris:       6%


Orange/San Diego
Warren:     32%
Biden:       18%
Sanders:    17%
Harris:        4%


Itís extremely interesting to me that sanders and warren combine for half the vote in OC

OC and SD are high income areas with professional class liberals. Interesting that labor-style, economically left wing candidates are doing well there

Polling across the county suggest that Warren is the candidate of well to do college educated liberals.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #16 on: September 27, 2019, 07:00:05 pm »

This is the kind of poll which should worry the Biden camp, not their IA/NH numbers.
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L.D. Smith
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« Reply #17 on: September 29, 2019, 09:29:51 am »

Regional poll numbers

Other Northern CA
Warren:    30%
Sanders:   22%
Harris:      13%
Biden:      12%


San Francisco Bay Area
Warren:    35%
Biden:      16%
Sanders:   14%
Harris:      13%


Central Valley
Sanders:   27%
Warren:    24%
Biden:      20%
Harris:       8%


LA County
Warren:    27%
Biden:      21%
Sanders:   20%
Harris:       7%


Other Southern CA (Inland Empire + Imperial?)
Biden:      28%
Warren:    23%
Sanders:   17%
Harris:       6%


Orange/San Diego
Warren:     32%
Biden:       18%
Sanders:    17%
Harris:        4%


Itís extremely interesting to me that sanders and warren combine for half the vote in OC

OC and SD are high income areas with professional class liberals. Interesting that labor-style, economically left wing candidates are doing well there

Two things

1. No they aren't, except for Warren.

2. A lot of these professional class jobs are unionizing anyway. Gives a bit more reason to need those sorts of pro-labor laws.


More interesting is that Bernie isn't running away with "Other NorCal", when that was his stronghold last time.
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