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November 17, 2019, 08:36:19 am
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, Speaker YE, Senator ON Progressive)
  NH/SC-Tel Opinion Research: Warren +5 in NH; Biden +22 in SC
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Author Topic: NH/SC-Tel Opinion Research: Warren +5 in NH; Biden +22 in SC  (Read 474 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: September 25, 2019, 10:09:19 am »

Tel Opinion Research polled NH and SC.

NH poll, taken Sept. 17-19:

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000016d-6568-d8ed-a36d-ede817180000

Warren 29%
Biden 24%
Sanders 13%
Buttigieg 9%
Harris 4%
Yang 1%

If the poll choices are limited to the top 3 candidates:
Warren 39%
Biden 28%
Sanders 14%

If they ask the question in an open-ended way, without reading the candidate list:
Warren 18%
Biden 15%
Sanders 8%
Buttigieg 4%
Harris 2%
Klobuchar 2%

SC poll, taken Sept. 18-20:

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000016d-6566-d8ed-a36d-edee7de90000

Biden 36%
Warren 14%
Sanders 7%
Harris 4%
Buttigieg 3%
Yang 1%

If the poll choices are limited to the top 3 candidates:
Biden 41%
Warren 19%
Sanders 9%

If they ask the question in an open-ended way, without reading the candidate list:
Biden 19%
Warren 9%
Sanders 3%
Harris 2%
Buttigieg 2%
Steyer 1%
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Still couldn't quell the Bel
xingkerui
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« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2019, 10:56:22 am »

The SC aren't great for Warren, but they could be worse. Looks like Warren is really starting to take the lead in NH, at about the same time that Sanders started to take the lead back in 2015.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2019, 11:25:27 am »

Downhill from here on out for Biden
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marty
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« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2019, 11:46:54 am »

Biden better hope and pray sanders stays in race for a while
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2019, 12:20:40 pm »

While both polls list their sample as "likely voters", they each have different types of screeners. The New Hampshire poll includes zero people who have never voted in a primary, and about a third each of primary voter history (what I assume is something along the lines of "How many of the past three primaries have you voted in?").

The South Carolina poll includes only Democrats (something the New Hampshire document doesn't mention either way), and 11% of the sample is first-time primary voters, with one time out of three voters making up another 58% of the sample.

Also, age makeup (14%-28% <45 years) and ideology (16%-30% very or somewhat conservative) also are very different between New Hampshire and South Carolina, but that seems like a more reasonable difference based on the primary electorate's makeup.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #5 on: September 25, 2019, 01:36:08 pm »

Bernard is over.

Fight in New Hampshire and Iowa, Uncle Joe. If you win them, you're going to be unstopable.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #6 on: September 25, 2019, 02:03:58 pm »

Bernard is over.

Fight in New Hampshire and Iowa, Uncle Joe. If you win them, you're going to be unstopable.

If Biden loses IA and NH, NV and Cali its over. Too many mistakes and gaffes. If he loses, he would never hear the end of the busing scandal
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Dr. RI
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« Reply #7 on: October 22, 2019, 04:24:51 pm »

New Poll: New Hampshire President by TelOpinion Research on 2019-09-19

Summary:
Warren:
29%
Biden:
24%
Sanders:
13%
Buttigieg:
9%
Other:
25%
Undecided:
0%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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