Sorenroy
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,701
Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -5.91
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« on: September 25, 2019, 12:20:40 PM » |
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While both polls list their sample as "likely voters", they each have different types of screeners. The New Hampshire poll includes zero people who have never voted in a primary, and about a third each of primary voter history (what I assume is something along the lines of "How many of the past three primaries have you voted in?").
The South Carolina poll includes only Democrats (something the New Hampshire document doesn't mention either way), and 11% of the sample is first-time primary voters, with one time out of three voters making up another 58% of the sample.
Also, age makeup (14%-28% <45 years) and ideology (16%-30% very or somewhat conservative) also are very different between New Hampshire and South Carolina, but that seems like a more reasonable difference based on the primary electorate's makeup.
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