Predict the Democratic Primaries Round 2: Nevada
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Poll
Question: Who will win the Nevada Democratic Caucuses?
#1
Joe Biden		  
#2
Cory Booker		  
#3
Pete Buttigieg		  
#4
Julian Castro		  
#5
Kamala Harris		  
#6
Amy Klobuchar		  
#7
Beto O'Rourke		  
#8
Bernie Sanders		  
#9
Elizabeth Warren		  
#10
Andrew Yang		  
#11
Other		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 100

Author Topic: Predict the Democratic Primaries Round 2: Nevada  (Read 1627 times)
Xing
xingkerui
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« on: September 26, 2019, 10:46:43 AM »
« edited: October 01, 2019, 01:38:04 AM by Xing »


Warren

IA NH

If you haven't voted on the Iowa or New Hampshire polls yet, you still can.

I think Nevada could be the closest of the first three states, and it's the one I'm the least confident about predicting at this point. I'll rate it a Toss-Up, with the slightest advantage to Warren, though I could see Biden pulling off a win here, and if Sanders did manage to come back and win New Hampshire, he could be competitive here as well. For now, though, Warren would be my guess.
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Grumpier Than Thou
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« Reply #1 on: September 26, 2019, 10:56:21 AM »
Warren - 26%
Biden - 24%
Sanders - 17%
Buttigieg - 8%
Harris - 5%
Yang - 4%
O'Rourke - 2%
Booker - 2%
everyone else - 1% or below
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andjey
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« Reply #2 on: September 26, 2019, 11:02:02 AM »
Joe Biden
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #3 on: September 26, 2019, 12:43:36 PM »
A total toss-up, but Warren when 2nd choice/momentum is incorporated. This is also a state where Bernie is going to have a large base that will take away from Biden AND Warren so idk.

Biden wins SC and probably makes up for delegate losses in the 3 first states anyway.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #4 on: September 26, 2019, 09:03:01 PM »
Either Warren or Bernie. Lean Warren.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #5 on: September 26, 2019, 11:10:32 PM »
Warren must win all three: IA, NH and NV, and win Cali and MN in order to be nominee. She has to win it, so it goes to Warren
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Pyro
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« Reply #6 on: September 27, 2019, 08:58:29 AM »
If Warren wins IA+NH, she wins NV.
If Biden wins either IA, NH or both, he wins NV.
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Hoosier_Nick
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« Reply #7 on: September 27, 2019, 06:44:20 PM »
Important factor that no one has mentioned: Harry Reid and his machine is supporting Warren and could make an impact
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Anzeigenhauptmeister
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« Reply #8 on: September 27, 2019, 06:50:15 PM »
I say, alas, Biden will make it, just because Warren and Sanders take away each other's votes. Plus, Sanders seems to be quite popular among Hispanics, so that he might even trump (lol) Warren.
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538Electoral
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« Reply #9 on: September 27, 2019, 10:09:30 PM »
Biden.
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Lisa's voting Biden
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« Reply #10 on: November 17, 2019, 06:48:03 PM »
Bumping to say Biden.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #11 on: November 17, 2019, 07:11:09 PM »
Biden, it's the first diverse state primary and he leads in recent polls
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RGM2609
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« Reply #12 on: November 30, 2019, 10:07:23 AM »
I am going to be bold and say narrowly Sanders, because Buttigieg, after winning IA, will take a lot of votes from Biden
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Spark
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« Reply #13 on: November 30, 2019, 10:11:30 AM »
Either Warren or Sanders. Biden will probably struggle a bit after losing the first two contests by a sizable margin
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andjey
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« Reply #14 on: November 30, 2019, 11:32:10 AM »
Biden->Warren->Sanders->Buttigieg
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: November 30, 2019, 12:31:45 PM »
Biden, he does well will Latinos like in Cali
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #16 on: November 30, 2019, 12:32:42 PM »
Quote from: Spark on November 30, 2019, 10:11:30 AM
Either Warren or Sanders. Biden will probably struggle a bit after losing the first two contests by a sizable margin

Biden is winning Cali, with Latinos by a landslide
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Xing
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« Reply #17 on: November 30, 2019, 12:57:44 PM »
As of right now, I’ll give Warren a slight edge, though Biden obviously has a chance, and Sanders could win it if he wins NH.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #18 on: November 30, 2019, 01:07:16 PM »
Biden or Bernie.
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redjohn
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« Reply #19 on: November 30, 2019, 03:09:34 PM »
The only candidates who I think have a realistic chance at winning NV are Sanders, Biden, and Warren. Since Warren is increasingly unlikely to win IA or NH Sanders has the edge in NV right now and will probably win there.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #20 on: November 30, 2019, 08:10:21 PM »
Warren or Biden.
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #21 on: November 30, 2019, 10:17:32 PM »
I think this depends on how viable Buttigieg is at that point.  If Buttigieg is still doing well then I think he cuts into Biden's vote and Sanders wins.  But probably Biden.
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538Electoral
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« Reply #22 on: November 30, 2019, 11:46:16 PM »
Biden.

In the general, The state is a toss-up. Some Democrats would win the state, Some others would lose the state.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #23 on: December 02, 2019, 07:59:11 AM »
Sanders
Pete

Biden




Warren
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OneJ
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« Reply #24 on: December 02, 2019, 09:11:30 AM »
Warren, Sanders and Biden all have strong chances of winning here. I don't see Buttigieg doing well here, at least not as well as IA or NH.
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