The University of Mary Washington-VA: Double digit leads for all Democrats

[Xing]

Warren is for : Massively Hiking Taxes

False, unless you're talking purely about the wealthiest Americans.

Is Anti-Business

Nope, try again.

Is for open borders

And people say I use strawmen...

and for packing the courts

Alright, finally something true, but Trump supported a myriad of things incredibly unpopular with the American public in 2016, and didn't exactly lose votes for it. Even if Democrats aren't fond of packing the courts, they won't run to Trump or vote Third Party on that alone. And even though I have mixed feelings about packing the court, I'll make an argument: The Supreme Court is already broken, and McConnell was instrumental in dealing the final blow to it. Sorry, "most people" who dislike Trump aren't going to agree with you, even if you consider yourself a "moderate."

Single payer will hike taxes on all of us whether she wants to admit it or not and Her wealth tax would be a disaster for businesses  in this country . Lol she might not say she’s for open borders but if you are supportive of decriminalizing illegal border crossing than you very well are for open borders

I'll keep this short since it's not exactly relevant to the topic, but you said "massively" hike taxes, and it's misleading to just say that taxes will go up (somewhat) without leaving out the part where most people save money since they would pay far less in premiums. I've already addressed the use of the word "open borders" several times as well as the difference between "decriminalize" and "make legal", and as far as the wealth tax being a "disaster" for businesses, I'll just add the old [citation needed].

[slothdem]

Amazing how people can still not understand how post-Trump politics works. Moderate hero candidates can and will over perform partisan baselines, but there are really very few swing voters in a Trump vs Democrat race. Biden outran other candidates because so many people presumed him to be the nominee. Ever since Liz grabbed that role her h2h numbers have improved while Biden's have declined. The reality is voters in Chesterfield and the Beach don't actually care about SOCIALISM or OPEN BORDERS. They care about Trump being the President. If Warren breaks 60% in Loudoun, which every reasonable person agrees will happen, then there is no way Trump holds on to either Chesterfield or the Beach (although the Beach can be weird).

For some reason the Old Dominion state in particular is breaking people's brains. Can't wait for the 2021 gubernatorial race where Jennifer McClellan faces off against a literal AR-15, and people are question whether JMac can win Chesapeake or if Alleghany County will return to its Mark Warner-loving glory.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Dems won the US House vote in Virginia in 2018 by just 10.62% based on my calculations for adjusting for VA-03 being uncontested.

[DINGO Joe]

Of course, with each election cycle there will be more people and voters in metro VA and fewer in rural VA

[slothdem]

Dems won the US House vote in Virginia in 2018 by just 10.62% based on my calculations for adjusting for VA-03 being uncontested.

Yes, given VA's stark and consistent blue trend it is likely to vote for the Democratic nominee by double digits or close. Good analysis.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Also, here are some facts:

Comstock ran ahead of Stewart by 9 points in 2018.
Taylor ran ahead of Stewart by 8 points in 2018.
Brat ran ahead of Stewart by 4 points in 2018.
Riggleman ran ahead of Stewart by 4 points in 2018.

How is Trump any less toxic than Stewart?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Dems won the US House vote in Virginia in 2018 by just 10.62% based on my calculations for adjusting for VA-03 being uncontested.

Based on my calculations, 10.62% is double digits.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Also, here are some facts:

Comstock ran ahead of Stewart by 9 points in 2018.
Taylor ran ahead of Stewart by 8 points in 2018.
Brat ran ahead of Stewart by 4 points in 2018.
Riggleman ran ahead of Stewart by 4 points in 2018.

How is Trump any less toxic than Stewart?

Trump isn’t a neo confederate

[MT Treasurer]

I like how the title makes you think first it will be a Maryland poll

Tbf, there’s no difference anymore. Well, I guess there is: Hogan couldn’t have won in VA in 2017.

Anyway, anyone who unironically believes that this state is Tossup/Lean D/Likely D doesn’t know what they’re talking about. Shocker. I’m already looking forward to the "VA-GOV 2021 is a Tossup " takes if a Democrat wins in 2020, though.

[MT Treasurer]

Yes, given VA's stark and consistent blue trend it is likely to vote for the Democratic nominee by double digits or close. Good analysis.

I was ridiculed for saying Trump could easily lose VA by double digits, lmao.

Virginia is essentially Safe D.

Ftfy. Actually....

Virginia is essentially Safe Titanium D.

Now it’s fine.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I like how the title makes you think first it will be a Maryland poll

Tbf, there’s no difference anymore. Well, I guess there is: Hogan couldn’t have won in VA in 2017.

Anyway, anyone who unironically believes that this state is Tossup/Lean D/Likely D doesn’t know what they’re talking about. Shocker. I’m already looking forward to the "VA-GOV 2021 is a Tossup " takes if a Democrat wins in 2020, though.

If Hogan was the incumbent he most certainly wins re-election in VA

[Landslide Lyndon]

Also, here are some facts:

Comstock ran ahead of Stewart by 9 points in 2018.
Taylor ran ahead of Stewart by 8 points in 2018.
Brat ran ahead of Stewart by 4 points in 2018.
Riggleman ran ahead of Stewart by 4 points in 2018.

How is Trump any less toxic than Stewart?

Trump isn’t a neo confederate

That must be news to his voters in the South.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Also, here are some facts:

Comstock ran ahead of Stewart by 9 points in 2018.
Taylor ran ahead of Stewart by 8 points in 2018.
Brat ran ahead of Stewart by 4 points in 2018.
Riggleman ran ahead of Stewart by 4 points in 2018.

How is Trump any less toxic than Stewart?

Trump isn’t a neo confederate

That must be news to his voters in the South.

Bush gt a higher 2004 got a higher % of the vote in every former Confederate state with the exceptions of LA, AR, and TN . AR and TN were also considered less dixecrat compared to the deep south as well where Bush performed better than Trump did(again with the exception of LA)

[Frenchrepublican]

Sanders 53
Trump 38

They must have gotten the numbers flipped. I was assured by the pundits and our Atlas Forum scholars that Trump would surge in Northern Virginia if Democrats nominated a SOCIALIST!!!

When are these people ever wrong?

Mr Computer would short circuit if and when Warren clears 60% in Loudoun County and wins Virginia Beach and Chesterfield County

Hahahahaha the latter two are not happening

They just voted Democrat for Congress overwhelmingly, but you make a good point

Neither voted democrat overwhelmingly, both voted D, yeah, but by a single digit margin. And you should really stop assuming that every future election will be like 2018.

As for Warren, she would probably win Virginia Beach by 1 or 2, but she would probably lose Chesterfield county, the county is still 7 or 8 points to the right of the rest of VA.

[Frenchrepublican]

Also, here are some facts:

Comstock ran ahead of Stewart by 9 points in 2018.
Taylor ran ahead of Stewart by 8 points in 2018.
Brat ran ahead of Stewart by 4 points in 2018.
Riggleman ran ahead of Stewart by 4 points in 2018.

How is Trump any less toxic than Stewart?

Trump isn’t a neo confederate

Most Democrats think that Trump is a Nazi.

[Frenchrepublican]

I remember when Democrats underestimated Trump in 2016.

I wonder what will happen if Republicans do the same for Warren

Warren is for : Massively Hiking Taxes , Is Anti-Business, Is for open borders and for packing the courts . She is open about all those things as well and while you could manage to be for one or maybe two of these things being for all 4 will make her a clear underdog in the race .


Heck anyone who is for packing the courts can’t make an argument that Trump is destroying democracy because what they would set of would be far far worse and most people would agree .

Liberals seriously think that packing courts with progressive judges is ’’saving democracy’’.

[Frenchrepublican]

I remember when Democrats underestimated Trump in 2016.

I wonder what will happen if Republicans do the same for Warren

Old School Republican is not underestimating Warren, but he is right when he says that Warren has some major flaws. She is a extremist (McGovern looks like a kind moderate when compared to her) she is un-likeable (contrary to Bill Clinton), she has a poor relationship with minorities (contrary to Obama), she can’t even claim to be ’’the most experienced candidate ever’’ (like Clinton). What are her assets compared to their D candidates ? basically nothing.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I remember when Democrats underestimated Trump in 2016.

I wonder what will happen if Republicans do the same for Warren

Old School Republican is not underestimating Warren, but he is right when he says that Warren has some major flaws. She is a extremist (McGovern looks like a kind moderate when compared to her) she is un-likeable (contrary to Bill Clinton), she has a poor relationship with minorities (contrary to Obama), she can’t even claim to be ’’the most experienced candidate ever’’ (like Clinton). What are her assets compared to their D candidates ? basically nothing.

This is exactly what underestimating looks like

[Frenchrepublican]

I remember when Democrats underestimated Trump in 2016.

I wonder what will happen if Republicans do the same for Warren

Old School Republican is not underestimating Warren, but he is right when he says that Warren has some major flaws. She is a extremist (McGovern looks like a kind moderate when compared to her) she is un-likeable (contrary to Bill Clinton), she has a poor relationship with minorities (contrary to Obama), she can’t even claim to be ’’the most experienced candidate ever’’ (like Clinton). What are her assets compared to their D candidates ? basically nothing.

This is exactly what underestimating looks like

It’s just facts. And if you disagree explain why Warren is a such strong candidate.

[libertpaulian]

Likely D.

[Politician]

For fun, if Biden really wins VA by 18, will he get the same county map as Kaine?

[Xing]

I remember when Democrats underestimated Trump in 2016.

I wonder what will happen if Republicans do the same for Warren

Old School Republican is not underestimating Warren, but he is right when he says that Warren has some major flaws. She is a extremist (McGovern looks like a kind moderate when compared to her) she is un-likeable (contrary to Bill Clinton), she has a poor relationship with minorities (contrary to Obama), she can’t even claim to be ’’the most experienced candidate ever’’ (like Clinton). What are her assets compared to their D candidates ? basically nothing.

This is exactly what underestimating looks like

It’s just facts. And if you disagree explain why Warren is a such strong candidate.

"Extremist" and "unlikeable" are subjective terms, and I'm not sure where you're getting the idea that she has a "poor" relationship with minorities. As for her assets, there's energizing the Democratic base in a way Clinton didn't and in a way Biden would struggle to do, which is essential.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Warren has a reputation of being honest, caring about other people, and is very good at explaining concepts.

Those are some strengths she has

[NOVA Green]

Uni Polls are Uni Polls...

Still, we actually have real live election data that indicates that Virginia in fact is moving heavily Democratic in both State House & Senate Elections, Congressional Elections, US-SEN Elections, as well as Presidential Elections.

It is not unfathomable at all to believe that a Democratic Presidential Candidate from whatever range of the current DEM PRES candidates will beat DJT by 10+ points in November of 2020 (And quite possible by much more).

Do we have any actual evidence that McCain '08 / Romney '12 PUB voters are swinging hard back towards Trump within the 'burbs of NOVA, Richmond, and the Tidewater Area?

We have positive data that suggests the opposite, even down to the level of statewide election results, where the 'Pubs got their clocks cleaned this past election in VA....

Maybe it was just a random event and the phantom Trump PRES '16 voters will materialize from rural areas and small towns....

Still VA would not be the State I would expect this phenomenon to occur in compared to many other states in the US.

[Non Swing Voter]

It's incredible that 2 years later now Virginia is a "D Safe" state on this forum.  In 2014 I was laughed at for saying Virginia was no longer a swing state because wealthy white suburbanites are now voting democrat.  But to say Virginia is a safe state or a state that Democrats can win by 15 points on the Presidential level is off.  I also suspect that Virginia's electorate is more favorable to democrats in off years because they rely heavily on college educated voters.  Virginia is a lean democrat state because there are more democrats than republicans but there are also lots of persuadable voters in the exurbs and even in Fairfax type counties, which means that if all the stars align Republicans can win it the way Obama won NC in 2008.