Predict the Democratic Primaries Round 2: South Carolina

[Xing]

Warren

IA NH NV


The previous three polls are still open, so feel free to vote on them if you haven't already.

On to South Carolina. Safe Biden, though obviously it'll be important to watch the margin. My current guess would be 20-25%, though him winning by more would likely spell trouble for the other candidates. Winning by less than 15%, especially if Warren had already won the first three contests, would probably not be good enough for him.

[Gracile]

Safe Biden, although I think if he loses the other three states and Harris/Booker stay in he might be kept to a somewhat closer race than expected.

[SN2903]

Biden but not by a lot. Warren is catching up fast.

[Modernity has failed us]

Biden: 38%
Warren: 20%
Sanders: 13%
Harris: 8%
Buttigieg: 6%
Booker: 3%
O'Rourke: 2%
everyone else: 1% or below

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Warren only can be competetive in the South if Harris or Beto gets out and endorses her. Beto is the most likely due to his friendship with Kennedy.

[😥]

Joe Biden

[538Electoral]

Biden easily.

[Suburbia]

Biden, Warren or Harris

[Progressive Pessimist]

Biden country.

[RGM2609]

And I know the answer is fairly obvious to most, but I am more interested in an in-depth discussion, like the margin, the top, the percentages and even the vote in the different areas of the state if anyone is familiar with them.

[😥]

Biden 50%
Warren 19%
Harris&Booker 11%
Sanders 9%
Buttigieg 4%
Others 7%

[ElectionsGuy]

Looks like Biden is on track to get 45-55% of the vote when all undecideds settle. Sanders will probably take 2nd, with about 20% while Buttigieg and Warren get 5-15%. If the other candidates can get it down to a less than 20% margin between them and Biden, then that may be enough in delegates for them in this particular state. The deep south will be hard for anybody but Biden, so just narrowing the margin from a landslide to a blowout could be considered a "victory" with proportional delegates. Biden will do well with rural blacks (we may see >70% Biden in some precincts or counties) while Warren and Buttigieg do better than average in the urban centers of Charleston and Columbia and areas with higher than average college degree %. I expect Sanders to have the most even support throughout the state, but I think (like 2016) he'll do best with non-college whites in rural areas and better with urban blacks than rural blacks. The northwest will probably be Biden's weakest area, but right now I would expect him to still carry a plurality in every county, even if it's only 30-40%.

My prediction right now is this...

Biden: 52%
Sanders: 21%
Warren: 14%
Buttigieg: 6%
Others: 5%

[RGM2609]

I'm going to be more bold and say that while Biden will win in SC, I don't think he'll ever win by the kind of margin people predict, especially as losing IA, NH and likely NV will have an effect.

My prediction would be:

Biden 37%
Sanders 26%
Warren 19%
Buttigieg 10%
Others: 8% (if Harris and Booker dropped out already)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden

[Lord Halifax]

The blafricans will be feeling the Bern.

[Tender Branson]

After IA and NH are won by Buttipete, everything could change.

We will only know then ... but for now Uncle Joe.

[Grassroots]

Biden, how is this a debate even?

[W]

This will be Biden, the margin itself varying depending on how he performs in the previous three states, although without many other viable candidates to go to I still expect Biden to invariably win here.

[Podgy the Bear]

Biden, how is this a debate even?

It's like the media trying to create something out of nothing.

[redjohn]

Biden will win SC.

If he wins by less than 10, his campaign is over. It would mean he lost IA, NH, and NV, and probably didn't come in 2nd in at least 2 of the 3 earlier contests. He needs to have a very, very good result here to make up for the failures of the earlier contests if he loses those.

My prediction, assuming Biden loses IA, NH, and barely loses NV, is this:

Biden: 43%
Sanders: 31%
Warren: 13%
Buttigieg: 7%
Others: 6%

[morgankingsley]

Biden will get most southern states

[Progressive Pessimist]

Biden's solid support among black voters gives him a very clear victory here.

[538Electoral]

Biden. He has great support among blacks.

In the general, All Democrats lose to Trump.

[cvparty]

it’s basically a lock for biden, but his margin could be lackluster depending on his performance in the first 3 states

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Biden (with a plurality)



Sanders

Pete



Warren (Pete’s rise is gonna hurt her far more than anyone else in most states)