Predict the Democratic Primaries Round 2: South Carolina

[ElectionsGuy]

Looks like Biden is on track to get 45-55% of the vote when all undecideds settle. Sanders will probably take 2nd, with about 20% while Buttigieg and Warren get 5-15%. If the other candidates can get it down to a less than 20% margin between them and Biden, then that may be enough in delegates for them in this particular state. The deep south will be hard for anybody but Biden, so just narrowing the margin from a landslide to a blowout could be considered a "victory" with proportional delegates. Biden will do well with rural blacks (we may see >70% Biden in some precincts or counties) while Warren and Buttigieg do better than average in the urban centers of Charleston and Columbia and areas with higher than average college degree %. I expect Sanders to have the most even support throughout the state, but I think (like 2016) he'll do best with non-college whites in rural areas and better with urban blacks than rural blacks. The northwest will probably be Biden's weakest area, but right now I would expect him to still carry a plurality in every county, even if it's only 30-40%.

My prediction right now is this...

Biden: 52%
Sanders: 21%
Warren: 14%
Buttigieg: 6%
Others: 5%