Another "Election maps of previous posters" thread

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Former Senator Michel Benét (D-OR): 401
Former Rep. Haley Ryan (R-CA): 129
Former Vice Chair Arvin Vohra (L-MD): 8

My broad, #populist message transcends party loyalty, and I win in a massive landslide, performing especially strong in the west and midwest. I don't do great in the south, though.

Also, I should obviously win Nevada

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Pump

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

For President
270 electoral votes needed to win

Haley/Ryan (R-CA) - 257
MB (D-OR) - 175
KoopaDaQuick (I-IA) - 106

Deciding the election goes to the House.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Wasn't intentional, but we tie 269-269 after you shine in the upper Midwest and I do well in the Sunbelt.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Fmr. Rep. Haley Ryan-Heller is so confident in his victory in Nevada that he accidentally failed to file in the state, costing him the election against Rep. Paula Eberhardt.

[S019]

Peebs (D-NC)/Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI): 312 EV, 51.2%
Haley/Ryan (R-CA)/Josh Hawley (R-MO): 226 EV, 47.3%

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I do better with suburbanites, college educated whites, and the affluent. Laki outperforms with non-college educated whites, the poor, and rural areas.

Flips -

To Laki: IA, WI, MI, PA. He outperforms Clinton strongly with WWC voters and cultural conservatives/economic liberals

To me: CO, VA. I outperform in NOVA, the Denver suburbs, VA Beach, and Richmond. NOVA might sound a bit unusual, but as a basically generic movement conservative with a focus on fiscal issues I think I can exceed normal performances there against Laki's cultural conservatism/economy leftyism

I win 275-263

Except for Colorado, i'd take it. I would do bad in Virginia, i think.

[Former President tack50]

I will take Lakigigar as a Democrat. So here is the primary map between him and Suburban

S019: 58%
Lakigigar: 42%

Basically a 2016 primary redux, except Laki is less effective than Sanders. S019 is strong in the South, the Southwest and the Northeast while Laki gets strength in the interior states and the Midwest

[West_Midlander]

A Tack vs. Laki Democratic primary turns out like this with Tack winning pretty easily. Laki wins the WWC, poor whites in the Plains and runs even with Tack with liberals/progressives in the Pacific states/Northeast. Tack wins the Sunbelt pretty evenly across with most of the South included. I imagine Tack being from NY ITTL, basically assuring his victory there and in the Mid-Atlantic states. Laki is from KS ITTL.

[538Electoral]

West_Midlander will be a Democrat in the scenario I cook up.

West_Midlander defeats Senator tack50 for the Democratic nomination relatively easily. Sweeping the south and winning the midwest and west which is solid Bernie territory.

In the general, It's a close race. I do even stronger than Trump in the midwest and flip Minnesota. However, West_Midlander tried to use the Southeast to defeat me and it worked. West_Midlander wins VA, NC, GA and FL which overcomes my midwestern strength and West_Midlander wins the presidency.

282-256

[AGA]

Don't really know 538Electoral's politics other than that he's a Republican. West_Midlander runs as a populist southern Democrat.

272-266

[West_Midlander]

I like to think those last two maps fit together into one TL with me being denied a second term

If I'm going to be another Jimmy Carter (who I'm a big fan of), I don't mind being succeeded by an FF like 538 (like how Carter was defeated by an FF in Reagan).

(SKIP)

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I can actually see AGA's map for Midlander being close to the one that he would net himself.  Flip PA and New Hampshire, though.  

290 - 248

[thumb21]

I think being seen as more thoughtfull and moderate, Penn Quaker Girl secures a decent mandate with 322 electoral votes and a 3 point popular vote lead, as well as making inroads particularly in New England.

[OBD]

Penn returns the suburbs for the GOP, but weaker rural conservative turnout in the South flips Florida and the election to Thumb.

[West_Midlander]

Closest states: UT, CO, PA, MO

Thumb (blue) wins by a sizeable margin

Thumb's home state is ME ITTL

[thumb21]

Democratic primary. Oregon Blue Dog is the establishment candidate who is favoured initially, leading all the polls up until Iowa. West Midlander runs an outsider campaign, winning an upset in Iowa, losing New Hampshire but winning Nevada and South Carolina. Strength in the South gives WM a strong performance on Super Tuesday but as more pro-Oregon Blue Dog states come through, the race gets closer and is hard fought, resulting in a narrow victory for WM.

[West_Midlander]

The race runs super close throughout. I probably drop out after the KY primary, maybe intending to fight for the running mate slot, knowing I don't have enough support to win (or a base in the remaining states). Anything outside the Old South, esp. outside the Deep South is pretty close, in particular: WV, KY, OK, KS, NE, SD, WI, MI, UT, NM, AK, and the US Virgin Islands.

Thumb invests heavily in the territories + Dems Abroad and trails OR Blue Dog in pledged delegates and the PV without these. He wins all of these besides USVI which he loses in an upset and carries most of the territories, especially PR by wide margins.

Strongholds/strengths for each campaign: New England & the territories, Dems Abroad, NY, Mid-Atlantic (Thumb), Pacific NW/MT, WY, ID, very competitive in the Rust Belt (OR Blue Dog), The South + competitive in a couple of "populist" states (WM)

MO is a big upset victory for OR Blue Dog also.

Thumb wins the PV by a razor-thin margin and wins a plurality of pledged delegates. OR Blue Dog withdraws once DC is called for Thumb once it is clear he trails in delegates and the PV nationally.

Without supers:

Thumb 1340
Blue Dog Dem 1314
WM 1113

Chaos is avoided as the plurality delegate winner is the PV winner and both major candidates who did not come out on top refuse to fight at the convention, endorsing Thumb in June.

The supers make it official with 89% deciding for Thumb (684), 9% for OR Blue Dog (66) and 2% for WM (14). The totals on top (2024-1380-1128) would be the official second round totals but the candidates agree to nominate Thumb by acclamation, probably running a Thumb/OR Blue Dog or a Thumb/WM unity ticket for the general election.

[Dr. MB]

(just made it winner take all)

Ultimately West Midlander does best in the south and wins rural and black voters but his more moderate and even conservative stances doom him in most of the rest of the country. While Thumb isn't exactly a raging leftist, he gets the backing of social liberals and most major urban areas.

[thumb21]

I think an MB vs WM primary makes more sense if WM is the president and is being challenged from the left, so I might as well continue the WM vs OR Blue Dog timeline.

After defeating OBD, WM faces Penn Quaker Girl in the general. With two fairly moderate candidates, the campaign is less of a traditional left-right campaign. WM continues his outsider campaign, portraying PQG as an Ivy League elitist and PQG runs on experience, portraying WM as unprepared to be president.



His populist campaign, being from North Carolina, in addition to his views on things like abortion and guns allows WM to make major gains in the South. On the other hand, PQG is able to make major gains in more socially liberal regions of the country, particularly the North East, who don't like some of WM's more socially conservative views.

WM wins by around 4 points and with 325 electoral votes.

4 years later, WM is challenged from the left by MB who claims that he can still appeal in rural areas because of his libertarian streak but without socially conservative views on many issues. The close results in the early states and super tuesday ensures a prolonged primary. WM finally secures a victory on the 28th of April when he wins big victories in New York and Pennsylvania.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I think being seen as more thoughtfull and moderate, Penn Quaker Girl secures a decent mandate with 322 electoral votes and a 3 point popular vote lead, as well as making inroads particularly in New England.

(Skip me, please!)

Wah, I wanted Delaware!

[West_Midlander]

Very cool maps, MB & Thumb.

Thumb: I very much think in that TL I'm doomed in the general due to having a competitive primary challenger as an incumbent, Carter 1980-style.

(Skip)

[Santander]

What party do people like Sprouts or me belong to?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Penn returns the suburbs for the GOP, but weaker rural conservative turnout in the South flips Florida and the election to Thumb.

Penn contests the results in Florida

[thumb21]

Thumb: I very much think in that TL I'm doomed in the general due to having a competitive primary challenger as an incumbent, Carter 1980-style.

Yeah, I was thinking that Carter would be a good comparison. A Southern outsider who wins a close election but is challenged from the left in a primary.