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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, Speaker YE, Senator ON Progressive)
  NV-CNN: Biden & Sanders tied
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Author Topic: NV-CNN: Biden & Sanders tied  (Read 933 times)
RogueBeaver
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« on: September 29, 2019, 07:20:47 am »

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Eraserhead
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« Reply #1 on: September 29, 2019, 07:40:44 am »

Drop out, Bernie!
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ShamDam
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« Reply #2 on: September 29, 2019, 08:08:29 am »

Looks like between this and SC, Steyer has 3 qualifying polls for November, and Yang also gets his third qualifying poll here. For all the talk of narrowing the field, seems like there will be at least 7 candidates on the stage.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #3 on: September 29, 2019, 09:01:05 am »

Looks like between this and SC, Steyer has 3 qualifying polls for November, and Yang also gets his third qualifying poll here. For all the talk of narrowing the field, seems like there will be at least 7 candidates on the stage.

I thought you needed 5% in early state polls to qualify through this route.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #4 on: September 29, 2019, 09:03:03 am »

Looks like between this and SC, Steyer has 3 qualifying polls for November, and Yang also gets his third qualifying poll here. For all the talk of narrowing the field, seems like there will be at least 7 candidates on the stage.

I thought you needed 5% in early state polls to qualify through this route.

That's the second route. First route is getting 3% in 4 polls either nationally or in early states.
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #5 on: September 29, 2019, 09:56:52 am »

Looks like between this and SC, Steyer has 3 qualifying polls for November, and Yang also gets his third qualifying poll here. For all the talk of narrowing the field, seems like there will be at least 7 candidates on the stage.

I thought you needed 5% in early state polls to qualify through this route.

That's the second route. First route is getting 3% in 4 polls either nationally or in early states.
you need 3% nationally or 5% in early states iirc
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #6 on: September 29, 2019, 09:59:24 am »

Looks like between this and SC, Steyer has 3 qualifying polls for November, and Yang also gets his third qualifying poll here. For all the talk of narrowing the field, seems like there will be at least 7 candidates on the stage.

I thought you needed 5% in early state polls to qualify through this route.

That's the second route. First route is getting 3% in 4 polls either nationally or in early states.
you need 3% nationally or 5% in early states iirc

No, nationally OR in early states. The second route is getting 5% in two early states (call it the Steyer route, could also be applied to Klobuchar and/or Gabbard)
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Biden If Buttigieg
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« Reply #7 on: September 29, 2019, 10:26:01 am »


Bernie is very unlikely to win NV if he loses both IA/NH.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #8 on: September 29, 2019, 10:33:27 am »

Looks like between this and SC, Steyer has 3 qualifying polls for November, and Yang also gets his third qualifying poll here. For all the talk of narrowing the field, seems like there will be at least 7 candidates on the stage.

I thought you needed 5% in early state polls to qualify through this route.

That's the second route. First route is getting 3% in 4 polls either nationally or in early states.
you need 3% nationally or 5% in early states iirc

Like our Norweigan friend said, it's one of either

A: 4 national and early state polls at 3% or above
B: 2 early state polls of 5% and above

In all likelihood, no one's qualifying through B who wouldn't through A.

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #9 on: September 29, 2019, 11:01:11 am »

Full results:

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/09/28/rel1_nv.pdf

men:
Sanders 24%
Warren 20%
Biden 17%

women:
Biden 26%
Sanders 21%
Warren 17%

white:
Biden 21%
Warren 20%
Sanders 19%

non-white:
Sanders 27%
Biden 24%
Warren 17%

college grad:
Warren 26%
Biden 18%
Sanders 15%

non-college grad:
Sanders 25%
Biden 24%
Warren 16%
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #10 on: September 29, 2019, 11:03:43 am »

Full results:

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/09/28/rel1_nv.pdf

men:
Sanders 24%
Warren 20%
Biden 17%

women:
Biden 26%
Sanders 21%
Warren 17%

white:
Biden 21%
Warren 20%
Sanders 19%

non-white:
Sanders 27%
Biden 24%
Warren 17%


college grad:
Warren 26%
Biden 18%
Sanders 15%

non-college grad:
Sanders 25%
Biden 24%
Warren 16%


The BROS strike again! 

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redjohn
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« Reply #11 on: September 29, 2019, 12:21:09 pm »

It's not surprising yet disappointing that the media has consistently covered Bernie's campaign as faltering when he is... tied or leading in several early states. Ask yourself: If this were any other Democratic candidate (besides Tulsi), would the media cast them aside like this? Doubtful.

The bias towards Warren is clear and strong. It very well may carry her campaign to victory, but people are vastly underestimating Sanders, especially with a potential (and likely) AOC endorsement.
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Still couldn't quell the Bel
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« Reply #12 on: September 29, 2019, 12:46:56 pm »

It's strange that Sanders seems stronger in NV than NH, but perhaps we'll get more clarity on that. Anyway, it's a good poll for Sanders, but I'll need to see more to think he's in better shape to win NV than Warren.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #13 on: September 29, 2019, 12:53:46 pm »

It's strange that Sanders seems stronger in NV than NH, but perhaps we'll get more clarity on that. Anyway, it's a good poll for Sanders, but I'll need to see more to think he's in better shape to win NV than Warren.

Hispanics and whites without a degree. Those are Sanders strongest groups and Nevada has perhaps the highest combination of both in the country. It might even be his best state outside Vermont. If we assume that's the case Sanders isn't looking so good.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #14 on: September 29, 2019, 01:03:25 pm »

Biden doesn’t need to win IA and NH (nor does he need to come all that close, especially in NH), but if he can win NV and sweep SC by 25+ points, he’ll be on track to win the nomination.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #15 on: September 29, 2019, 01:04:57 pm »

It's strange that Sanders seems stronger in NV than NH, but perhaps we'll get more clarity on that. Anyway, it's a good poll for Sanders, but I'll need to see more to think he's in better shape to win NV than Warren.

Hispanics and whites without a degree. Those are Sanders strongest groups and Nevada has perhaps the highest combination of both in the country. It might even be his best state outside Vermont. If we assume that's the case Sanders isn't looking so good.

He’s leading in an early state and your response is “Not so good for Sanders”?

Did you eat paint chips as a kid?

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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #16 on: September 29, 2019, 01:17:42 pm »

It's strange that Sanders seems stronger in NV than NH, but perhaps we'll get more clarity on that. Anyway, it's a good poll for Sanders, but I'll need to see more to think he's in better shape to win NV than Warren.

Hispanics and whites without a degree. Those are Sanders strongest groups and Nevada has perhaps the highest combination of both in the country. It might even be his best state outside Vermont. If we assume that's the case Sanders isn't looking so good.

He’s leading in an early state and your response is “Not so good for Sanders”?

Did you eat paint chips as a kid?



Yes. Do you understand context dood?

First, he's not "leading" he's statistically tied. I'm interpreting data and considering external factors. I would personally enjoy seeing Sanders get the nomination over Biden and/or Warren, but I don't fawn over candidates when a good poll comes out for them.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #17 on: September 29, 2019, 01:19:53 pm »

It's strange that Sanders seems stronger in NV than NH, but perhaps we'll get more clarity on that. Anyway, it's a good poll for Sanders, but I'll need to see more to think he's in better shape to win NV than Warren.

Hispanics and whites without a degree. Those are Sanders strongest groups and Nevada has perhaps the highest combination of both in the country. It might even be his best state outside Vermont. If we assume that's the case Sanders isn't looking so good.

He’s leading in an early state and your response is “Not so good for Sanders”?

Did you eat paint chips as a kid?



Yes. Do you understand context dood?

First, he's not "leading" he's statistically tied. I'm interpreting data and considering external factors. I would personally enjoy seeing Sanders get the nomination over Biden and/or Warren, but I don't fawn over candidates when a good poll comes out for them.

Well that’s not good for brain development so I have my answer.
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Deranged California Suburbanite
Fubart Solman
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« Reply #18 on: September 29, 2019, 02:35:04 pm »


There’s gonna be a lot of counties that are basically random number generators.
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jfern
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« Reply #19 on: September 29, 2019, 03:53:59 pm »

Only 27% of non-whites? Drop out, Bernard!
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jeb_arlo
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« Reply #20 on: September 29, 2019, 04:50:14 pm »

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Gass3268
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« Reply #21 on: September 30, 2019, 01:16:23 am »

Harry Reid says right now he won't endorse anyone, but he does have a favorite.
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Torranski
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« Reply #22 on: September 30, 2019, 07:17:58 am »


So, effectively, he’ll kick the Reid Machine into gear for the NV primrary, but is going to keep us in suspense about who he’s chosen...
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jeb_arlo
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« Reply #23 on: September 30, 2019, 09:00:25 am »


So, effectively, he’ll kick the Reid Machine into gear for the NV primrary, but is going to keep us in suspense about who he’s chosen...

Come on.  We all know he's backing Warren.  He lobbied top Clinton campaign officials -- ncluding Bill -- on making Elizabeth Warren Hillary's running mate.  https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/cold-call-someone-she-never-met-changed-elizabeth-warren-s-n1057926
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Torranski
Torrain
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« Reply #24 on: September 30, 2019, 09:50:08 am »


So, effectively, he’ll kick the Reid Machine into gear for the NV primary, but is going to keep us in suspense about who he’s chosen...

Come on.  We all know he's backing Warren.  He lobbied top Clinton campaign officials -- ncluding Bill -- on making Elizabeth Warren Hillary's running mate.  https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/cold-call-someone-she-never-met-changed-elizabeth-warren-s-n1057926

Oh totally, I was more being rhetorical than anything else. He praises her in any interview he gives:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/cold-call-someone-she-never-met-changed-elizabeth-warren-s-n1057926

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/428257-former-senate-leader-says-he-wont-endorse-elizabeth-warren

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/reid-praises-former-staffers-on-sanders-team-says-no-presidential-endorsement-until-after-caucus

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/harry-reid-calls-elizabeth-warren-a-good-person-but-declines-to-endorse-her-presidential-bid

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/07/elizabeth-warren-nevada-democrats-2020-1449938

Reid doesn't endorse, he just wins you the NV primary, and strongarms you a fistfull of endorsements.
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