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December 11, 2019, 02:10:20 pm
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  What Do the Parties Look Like in the Future?
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Author Topic: What Do the Parties Look Like in the Future?  (Read 1663 times)
Anarcho-Statism
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« on: September 29, 2019, 10:43:32 am »
« edited: October 03, 2019, 06:53:34 pm by Anarcho-Statism »

What will party ideologies, coalitions, and so on look like in the future? As in, the next party system, and/or a few decades from now.

This views both the Trump era and what comes after it as a wilderness for both parties in America, a strange, transitional time with a lot of fluidity in party platforms. The GOP stabilizes when liberals defect from the Democrats, and position themselves as the ones to restore stability in a shaky mid-21st century economy. They promise a futuristic information economy with insanely low prices due to the costs of manual labor being slashed. The Democrats are seen as radical problem solvers, with the support of people hit hardest by automation and extreme weather patterns (California is a rust belt now). Social security is gone by this time, and some Democrats want to either resurrect it or bring about a social credit system.

I'd #boldly say the Republicans go back to free-ish trade some time after Trump and only occasionally run on overt protectionism (i.e. Bush steel tariffs), keep the anti-interventionism, and get more civic libertarian. If there is war, they support America acting alone for their interests only (Latin America-style engagements). They stay tough on immigration. Domestic oil prospers, keeping them afloat enough in Texas to make it a purple state rather than a blue one- Louisiana is considered an acceptable loss, 50+ electoral votes aren't. They blame America's decline on the welfare state and see automation as a force for good. The state parties differ in their platforms and appeal more to the regional culture, helping the GOP in Congress. Presidential primaries, on the other hand, tend to get more factional. They bounce back in the suburbs and sit somewhere between Romney and Trump in the Rust Belt. Asians vote Republican by about 55%.

The Democrats continue to run up numbers with black Americans and most hispanic groups, to the extent that the Southwest is their core region, and still win white progressives. They support laws requiring that corporations hire a certain percentage of humans, expanding welfare programs, and even universal basic income in the radical faction. The party holds the inner-cities and benefit from an increase in rural minorities. The die-off of boomers helps along in the Deep South. A combination of minority recruitment and inner-church social moderation helps the Democrats make margins closer with Protestants, while the continued shrinking of (white) Catholics leaves more orthodox believers and helps Republicans boost their numbers with that demographic.

Democrats benefit from demographic change at first in the 2020s and 2030s, but Republicans bounce back after rebranding. Basically, the GOP is the liberal party and the Democratic Party is progressive. Europe style.

Maps are welcome!
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dw93
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« Reply #1 on: September 29, 2019, 12:43:09 pm »

Too soon to say. I think the elections and events of the 2020s will determine what path the parties go down going forward. I think if someone like Warren wins in 2020, gets re elected, and has two decent terms, the Democrats will return to their populist, New Deal Roots economically, while the GOP moderates socially and serves as a check and balance on the Democratic party economically. If Trump wins in 2020 against Warren or Sanders, the GOP continues down the path it's gone down over the last decade, while the Democrats remain the party of Clintonite politics. If Trump beats Biden or Harris, the GOP stays as is while the Democrats go more left.
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Anarcho-Statism
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« Reply #2 on: September 29, 2019, 02:03:35 pm »
« Edited: September 29, 2019, 03:52:04 pm by Anarcho-Statism »

Too soon to say. I think the elections and events of the 2020s will determine what path the parties go down going forward. I think if someone like Warren wins in 2020, gets re elected, and has two decent terms, the Democrats will return to their populist, New Deal Roots economically, while the GOP moderates socially and serves as a check and balance on the Democratic party economically. If Trump wins in 2020 against Warren or Sanders, the GOP continues down the path it's gone down over the last decade, while the Democrats remain the party of Clintonite politics. If Trump beats Biden or Harris, the GOP stays as is while the Democrats go more left.

That's a fair answer. I go into these threads assuming it's a gun-to-your-head kind of thing. Think of it as the "For fun, let's try and predict the maps for the next six elections" thread, but for the party platforms. All good predictions, but it's also important to note that regardless of what happens in our elections, unrelated external factors will still pop up that effect our politics. It didn't matter whether President Bush or President Gore was in office, for example, Hurricane Katrina would have happened either way and still affected party politics. Basically, no matter who wins 2020, new "things" will happen in the future that will change the parties in the same way.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #3 on: September 29, 2019, 02:22:15 pm »

I can't believe how many people seriously believe libertarians are going to recapture the GOP after Trump.  A Euro Christian Democrat scenario for the GOP is much more likely, with both parties moving to the center on economics.  The business elite becomes divided by industry and views on trade/globalization as in the late 19th century and no longer systematically favors the GOP (think 55/45 either way depending on economic conditions).  

College grads with incomes below the top 1% ($500Kish per household today) become the new base of the Democratic party.  Democrats can count on at least 70% of the college+ vote and at least 80% of the postgrad vote in a close election by the late 2020's.  The exceptions being managers in manufacturing/resource extraction industries, small business owners, and some who are very religiously devout.

Manufacturing areas of the Midwest and Upper South will eventually deliver similar 70%+ margins to Republicans.  College towns will gradually lose population and political influence with declining birthrates.  This will eventually make New York and Illinois competitive and lock up the rest of the Midwest for Republicans.  Wealthier Boomer retirees in resort areas will be the other component of the Republican base and will eventually lock down Florida.

The Northeast also looks particularly promising for Republicans in the long run.  It will not require that much more white working class support to flip most of New England.  Massachusetts is clearly the most secure Dem state in the long run and Vermont could go either way, but the other states seem ripe for a populist Republican resurgence.

More controversially, I do think post-Trump Republicans will eventually capture >1/3rd of the nonwhite vote.  This will be a significant barrier to Democratic expansion in the South.  Only Georgia and Texas, with very significant Millennial college grad influence, will conclusively flip as Virginia already has.  North Carolina will be closely contested for a long time and eventually develop a mild Dem lean.  The rest of the Deep South will remain strongly Republican for a long time between increasing retiree influence and a slowly growing Republican share of the black vote.  Maryland may eventually be more competitive than Virginia.  

What remains to be seen is how well Republicans can keep agriculture and resource extraction industries in a strongly protectionist coalition when they generally stand to benefit from free trade.  So far, cultural issues and Green New Deal rhetoric are keeping these industries from seriously considering the Dems, but the dam may eventually break.  Between this, the Mormon vote, and the surprisingly strong influence of large cities, the inland West looks like the most fertile ground for Dem expansion down the line.  I expect Democrats to consolidate Colorado and Nevada, flip Arizona, routinely win the Omaha EV, and eventually flip Kansas.  They will eventually be able to get a senate seat or 2 out of the other Plains stats.  Utah should feature many competitive 3 way races going forward.  Alaska and Idaho might get more competitive.  However, I expect the new Republican coalition to gradually gain ground in Oregon, California, and New Mexico after 2020. 

One major unknown is who makes the strongest move on antitrust enforcement and when.  If e.g. a President Warren pursues this aggressively, it could erode the Dem advantage with big tech workers.
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« Reply #4 on: September 29, 2019, 03:26:33 pm »

^Lmao

Someone has a 2016 trend hard-on.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #5 on: September 29, 2019, 03:35:22 pm »

It's not a monotonic extension of 2016 trends at all.  I have Democrats peaking soon in California and New York, and Republicans breaking through enough with black voters to hold most of the South. 
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« Reply #6 on: September 29, 2019, 03:36:30 pm »

It's not a monotonic extension of 2016 trends at all.  I have Democrats peaking soon in California and New York, and Republicans breaking through enough with black voters to hold most of the South. 
Yes, but the basic idea is still 2016 trends 4ever, which is obviously a silly theory.
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Grassr00ts
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« Reply #7 on: October 01, 2019, 10:27:55 am »

Republicans become much more fiscally left wing, becoming the main party in support of protectionism, and they start to support universal healthcare and related fiscal left wing policies. However they become more reactionary socially.

Democrats stay put as the social liberal party, but fully adopt free trade as a policy. They also become more religious, while the republican party becomes more secular.
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Beef
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« Reply #8 on: October 02, 2019, 08:35:20 am »

The current GOP coalition is not sustainable, and is only being kept on life support thanks to a very well-organized propaganda campaign to vilify the left and keep people in fear. Eventually the GOP will expand its base, because they must. How they do that, I have no idea. The demographic explosion in the Sunbelt is going to keep making former GOP strongholds into purple states. NC, GA, TX, and AZ are slipping away as cities like Charlotte, Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and Phoenix continue to grow.

The most likely scenario I can see is an emergent GOP movement in urban areas to counter Democratic one-party rule. These Republicans would be ethnically diverse and focus on business, development, and revitalization of urban centers. Social wedge issues would not be on the radar for them. Instead, they would challenge entrenched, corrupt Democratic political machines.

These urban Republicans would not get along very well with their rural counterparts, but needs must, and they will band together.

The Democrats have a much more demographically sustainable base, and probably won't change a whole lot.
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The Invisible Hand (that suicided Jeffrey Epstein)
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« Reply #9 on: October 02, 2019, 04:54:39 pm »

Republicans become much more fiscally left wing, becoming the main party in support of protectionism, and they start to support universal healthcare and related fiscal left wing policies. However they become more reactionary socially.

Democrats stay put as the social liberal party, but fully adopt free trade as a policy. They also become more religious, while the republican party becomes more secular.
Secular, but more reactionary...
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Grassr00ts
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« Reply #10 on: October 02, 2019, 07:49:49 pm »

Republicans become much more fiscally left wing, becoming the main party in support of protectionism, and they start to support universal healthcare and related fiscal left wing policies. However they become more reactionary socially.

Democrats stay put as the social liberal party, but fully adopt free trade as a policy. They also become more religious, while the republican party becomes more secular.
Secular, but more reactionary...

Yes? Those things are anything but mutually exclusive.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #11 on: October 02, 2019, 09:03:38 pm »

Republicans become much more fiscally left wing, becoming the main party in support of protectionism, and they start to support universal healthcare and related fiscal left wing policies. However they become more reactionary socially.

Democrats stay put as the social liberal party, but fully adopt free trade as a policy. They also become more religious, while the republican party becomes more secular.
Secular, but more reactionary...

Yes? Those things are anything but mutually exclusive.

When you say you expect Dems to get more religious, in a Buttigieg Christian left kind of way, or a Marianne Williamson kind of way? 

If the GOP goes full protectionist for good, I  think a lot of the earthy/hippie/spiritual types would eventually end up there and the Dems may (less confident on this, probably depends on abortion eventually being considered settled one way or the other) take on a more vocally Christian wing as they flip more of the South/Southwest?
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Anarcho-Statism
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« Reply #12 on: October 03, 2019, 11:29:09 am »
« Edited: October 03, 2019, 11:38:06 am by Anarcho-Statism »

Here's an interesting one: how do you think the parties will develop on crime? The GOP has long been known as the tough-on-crime party, a position they emphasized historically when they wanted to appeal to the suburbs and the well-to-do. While movements like Black Lives Matter in the liberal sphere have reinforced this, Democratic growth in the suburbs could potentially shake things up.

What does crime look like in the future? The trendy answer is less violent crime and more cybercrime, but economic downturns and wealth inequality could make people more desperate. Also, how will legislation develop on hate crime? How about drugs?
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khuzifenq
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« Reply #13 on: October 04, 2019, 09:28:25 pm »

Here's an interesting one: how do you think the parties will develop on crime? The GOP has long been known as the tough-on-crime party, a position they emphasized historically when they wanted to appeal to the suburbs and the well-to-do. While movements like Black Lives Matter in the liberal sphere have reinforced this, Democratic growth in the suburbs could potentially shake things up.

What does crime look like in the future? The trendy answer is less violent crime and more cybercrime, but economic downturns and wealth inequality could make people more desperate. Also, how will legislation develop on hate crime? How about drugs?

With BLM-type movements specifically, it depends on what future wedge issue(s) cause black voters trend R; I agree with Skill and Chance that this will happen to some extent. Although for the Republicans to win over 1/3 of the nonwhite vote they will need to make smaller gains among Latino, Asian, and multiracial voters too.

I'd like to think that the Dems will focus more on cybercrime and white-collar crime, while the GOP will be more concerned with property crime and drugs.
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АverroŽs 🦉
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« Reply #14 on: October 07, 2019, 05:56:43 pm »

It's difficult to predict what a post-Trump GOP will look like. The past four years have demonstrated just how random and personality-driven national politics can be.

I'm not confident that Democrats will maintain much of a natural advantage. A Republican Party that moves past free market fundamentalism, that maintains the loyalty of the religious right without being under its thrall, and that is a generation removed from the taint of the Iraq War could be a potent force under less volatile leadership.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #15 on: October 09, 2019, 06:04:23 am »

The R party keeps nominating Romney, Palins and Trumps whom cant appeal  to Latinos like Reagan, Bush, who were moderates on immigration. The lesson of Trump and Palin, it seems, they keep nominating people that say whatever they like off the top of their head. Without repropcutions. Romney 47% comment, Trump wants China to investigate Biden. Palin said mant offensive things. You dont have to be part of Freedom Caucus to mimick Palin.

Cruz will probably run for Prez in 2024; and fail. That is the future of the GOP party.
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Cassandra :(
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« Reply #16 on: October 09, 2019, 06:40:20 pm »

My guess is they both start to look like Hezbollah. That is to say, they will have associated paramilitaries, and may start providing social services as the state itself breaks down.
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Anarcho-Statism
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« Reply #17 on: October 09, 2019, 07:15:23 pm »

My guess is they both start to look like Hezbollah. That is to say, they will have associated paramilitaries, and may start providing social services as the state itself breaks down.

How does this translate geographically? What areas do you think Republican America and Democratic America will come to control if they're the ones doling out essential services in their turf?
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Cassandra :(
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« Reply #18 on: October 09, 2019, 07:21:46 pm »

My guess is they both start to look like Hezbollah. That is to say, they will have associated paramilitaries, and may start providing social services as the state itself breaks down.

How does this translate geographically? What areas do you think Republican America and Democratic America will come to control if they're the ones doling out essential services in their turf?

Rural and exurban areas are Republican, cities are Democratic. Suburban areas will be a jagged patchwork of different fiefdoms. Recall the maps of regime vs. rebel controlled Damascus from a few years back.
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« Reply #19 on: October 10, 2019, 07:26:45 am »

Republicans become much more fiscally left wing, becoming the main party in support of protectionism, and they start to support universal healthcare and related fiscal left wing policies. However they become more reactionary socially.

Democrats stay put as the social liberal party, but fully adopt free trade as a policy. They also become more religious, while the republican party becomes more secular.
Secular, but more reactionary...

Yes? Those things are anything but mutually exclusive.

Not that they are but what usually comes out of such a profile? Sounds violent.
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Fwillb21
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« Reply #20 on: October 11, 2019, 01:07:04 am »

Will the GOP ever move to the left on social issues (eg: LGBT Rights, Gun Control, Abortion)?
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The Invisible Hand (that suicided Jeffrey Epstein)
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« Reply #21 on: October 11, 2019, 08:43:47 am »

Will the GOP ever move to the left on social issues (eg: LGBT Rights, Gun Control, Abortion)?

Probably not but you never know.
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Anarcho-Statism
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« Reply #22 on: October 11, 2019, 08:49:52 am »

Will the GOP ever move to the left on social issues (eg: LGBT Rights, Gun Control, Abortion)?

The younger generations overwhelmingly support a classical liberal stance on social issues, so I guess that's what happens when they take the reins. That's just with Millennials and Gen Z, though, and there's always a possibility that Republicans yet unborn could walk those positions back. People forget that society is constantly in flux.
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« Reply #23 on: October 11, 2019, 12:52:43 pm »

Will the GOP ever move to the left on social issues (eg: LGBT Rights, Gun Control, Abortion)?

I would say the Republican party has already moved left, or at least libertarian, on LGBT rights (At least outside of the south). Gun control and abortion, probably not, but I could see the Republicans start advocating for different types of birth control (you know, other than abstinence).
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« Reply #24 on: October 12, 2019, 10:49:00 pm »

The Democrats seem destined to be the party of urban cosmopolitans, minorities, younger voters, the wealthy, and college-educated voters, while Republicans seem destined to be the party of evangelicals, the white working class, and rural voters.
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