What Do the Parties Look Like in the Future?

[Skill and Chance]

I can't believe how many people seriously believe libertarians are going to recapture the GOP after Trump.  A Euro Christian Democrat scenario for the GOP is much more likely, with both parties moving to the center on economics.  The business elite becomes divided by industry and views on trade/globalization as in the late 19th century and no longer systematically favors the GOP (think 55/45 either way depending on economic conditions).  

College grads with incomes below the top 1% ($500Kish per household today) become the new base of the Democratic party.  Democrats can count on at least 70% of the college+ vote and at least 80% of the postgrad vote in a close election by the late 2020's.  The exceptions being managers in manufacturing/resource extraction industries, small business owners, and some who are very religiously devout.

Manufacturing areas of the Midwest and Upper South will eventually deliver similar 70%+ margins to Republicans.  College towns will gradually lose population and political influence with declining birthrates.  This will eventually make New York and Illinois competitive and lock up the rest of the Midwest for Republicans.  Wealthier Boomer retirees in resort areas will be the other component of the Republican base and will eventually lock down Florida.

The Northeast also looks particularly promising for Republicans in the long run.  It will not require that much more white working class support to flip most of New England.  Massachusetts is clearly the most secure Dem state in the long run and Vermont could go either way, but the other states seem ripe for a populist Republican resurgence.

More controversially, I do think post-Trump Republicans will eventually capture >1/3rd of the nonwhite vote.  This will be a significant barrier to Democratic expansion in the South.  Only Georgia and Texas, with very significant Millennial college grad influence, will conclusively flip as Virginia already has.  North Carolina will be closely contested for a long time and eventually develop a mild Dem lean.  The rest of the Deep South will remain strongly Republican for a long time between increasing retiree influence and a slowly growing Republican share of the black vote.  Maryland may eventually be more competitive than Virginia.  

What remains to be seen is how well Republicans can keep agriculture and resource extraction industries in a strongly protectionist coalition when they generally stand to benefit from free trade.  So far, cultural issues and Green New Deal rhetoric are keeping these industries from seriously considering the Dems, but the dam may eventually break.  Between this, the Mormon vote, and the surprisingly strong influence of large cities, the inland West looks like the most fertile ground for Dem expansion down the line.  I expect Democrats to consolidate Colorado and Nevada, flip Arizona, routinely win the Omaha EV, and eventually flip Kansas.  They will eventually be able to get a senate seat or 2 out of the other Plains stats.  Utah should feature many competitive 3 way races going forward.  Alaska and Idaho might get more competitive.  However, I expect the new Republican coalition to gradually gain ground in Oregon, California, and New Mexico after 2020. 

One major unknown is who makes the strongest move on antitrust enforcement and when.  If e.g. a President Warren pursues this aggressively, it could erode the Dem advantage with big tech workers.

[Skill and Chance]

It's not a monotonic extension of 2016 trends at all.  I have Democrats peaking soon in California and New York, and Republicans breaking through enough with black voters to hold most of the South. 

[Skill and Chance]

Republicans become much more fiscally left wing, becoming the main party in support of protectionism, and they start to support universal healthcare and related fiscal left wing policies. However they become more reactionary socially.

Democrats stay put as the social liberal party, but fully adopt free trade as a policy. They also become more religious, while the republican party becomes more secular.

Secular, but more reactionary...

Yes? Those things are anything but mutually exclusive.

When you say you expect Dems to get more religious, in a Buttigieg Christian left kind of way, or a Marianne Williamson kind of way? 

If the GOP goes full protectionist for good, I  think a lot of the earthy/hippie/spiritual types would eventually end up there and the Dems may (less confident on this, probably depends on abortion eventually being considered settled one way or the other) take on a more vocally Christian wing as they flip more of the South/Southwest?