Novak: If Trent Lott Retires, Democrat Moore Would Win His Seat

[Sarnstrom]

Will a Trent Lott Retirement Hand Senate to Dems?
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By Robert Novak
Dec 26, 2005   

WASHINGTON -- Trent Lott within the next week plans to decide between seeking a fourth term in the U.S. Senate from Mississippi or retiring from public life.

 
LOTT TO RETIRE?

That could determine whether Republicans keep control of the Senate in next year's elections. For the longer range, Lott's retirement and replacement could signal that Southern political realignment has peaked and now is receding.
 
Mississippi, one of the reddest of the red Republican states, has not even been on the game board of the Washington analysis forecasting the 2006 Senate outcome. But in Mississippi, prominent Republicans are worried sick. They believe Lott will probably retire. If so, they expect the new senator will be a Democrat, former State Attorney General Mike Moore. Republican politicians in Mississippi believe Rep. Chip Pickering, the likely Republican nominee if Lott does not run, cannot defeat Moore.

Republican National Chairman Ken Mehlman pleaded with Lott last week to run again. The senator was as blunt with this emissary from President Bush as he was with me. "Where is our vision and our agenda?" he asked. The malaise afflicting the Bush administration not only threatens a Senate seat in Mississippi but impacts Lott's decision whether to retire.
 
A Bush entreaty now to Lott is ironic. Lott was driven out of the Senate majority leader's chair after the 2002 elections when the president refused to defend him from calumnies that a harmless jocular remark on the late Strom Thurmond's 100th birthday was racist in nature. Lott's recently published memoir ("Herding Cats") reveals he was deeply hurt by Bush's non-support.
 
Republicans pressing Lott to run say that if he retires, he will have to live the rest of his life under the burden of giving the Democrats a Senate seat and perhaps control of the Senate out of personal pique that he no longer was majority leader. But Lott has not been sulking in his tents for three years. He has been an active presence on the Senate floor and has made the most of his meager power base as Senate Rules Committee chairman.
 
When Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison last week urged Lott to stay, he reminded her she too had pondered before deciding to run again in Texas next year. He said a six-year Senate term poses a major undertaking, adding that he considered not running for his third term in 2000 when he was still majority leader. His personal financial condition has deteriorated since then with the loss of half his net worth when Hurricane Katrina swept away his home at Pascagoula, Miss.
 
"The hurricane is what has made this decision difficult for me," Lott told me. On the one hand, "the performance by the administration has been poor and the Congress has not been a lot better." On the other hand, "my people need all the help I can give them." Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour has pointed to Lott's role in guiding the Katrina tax relief package through the Senate, declaring: "This shows why Mississippi and the country need Trent Lott to be re-elected next year."
 
Lott wonders what his senatorial role would be beginning his fourth term at age 65 without a leadership position or significant committee chairmanship. Sen. John McCain has urged Lott to return as leader of Senate Republicans (succeeding Sen. Bill Frist, who is leaving the Senate). But that would require an aggressive campaign against Majority Whip Mitch McConnell that Lott is not inclined to pursue.
 
Mississippi Republicans are so anxious about a Lott-less election next year partly because Democrat Moore is a better known, more appealing figure in the state than Republican Pickering. The state's big African-American minority continues to increase, and politically potent trial lawyers will be unrestrained on behalf of Moore. Finally, the performance by the Republican-controlled national government in coping with Katrina is no asset for Republican candidates in Mississippi.
 
When George W. stood aside while Trent Lott was tossed out, I wrote on Dec. 23, 2002, that the secret liberal theme behind his defenestration was that "the GOP's Southern base, the bedrock of its national election victories, is an illegitimate legacy from racist Dixiecrats.

Now, three years later, that bedrock may be eroding.

Robert Novak is a Fox News Commentator and a columnist who writes Inside Report.

http://www.nationalledger.com/artman/publish/article_27262317.shtml

[Moooooo]

I really hope this is true, but part of me thinks Lott is just playing games so he can land the Majority Leader or Whip spot.

[TheresNoMoney]

I truly hope that Lott retires, but I find it somewhat hard to believe than Moore would be the favorite in such a strong GOP state.

Is he really that popular there? I have had a hard time finding information about him.

[Joe Republic]

I truly hope that Lott retires, but I find it somewhat hard to believe than Moore would be the favorite in such a strong GOP state.

Is he really that popular there? I have had a hard time finding information about him.

As AG, Moore already has the statewide name recognition advantage.  Also, the state doesn't have much trouble electing Democrats, given the current balance of power in the state legislature.  I'm not going to say that Moore would definitely win, but he is slightly favored over Pickering.

[nini2287]

The author of this article tells me trust it as much as I'd trust a Zogby poll.  Intersting analysis, though.

[Galactic Overlord]

I think it's too soon to handicap Moore as a favorite, though the seat would be competitive.  Pickering represents central Mississippi, so he doesn't need to worry about name recognition there.  Lower Mississippi on the Gulf Coast is heavily Republican and would go for Pickering as well, though I don't know how many residents have been displaced from there. 

The problem for Moore is *national* issues.  How would he handle the inevitable question of whether he would have supported Pickering's dad in his confirmation battle?  How does he handle the question of *a vote for Moore is a vote for Harry Reid, who boasted that he killed the Patriot Act*?  He may end up like Brad Carson in OK, a contender, but done in by national issues. 

[Yates]

I was unaware of the disapproval Lott holds for the Bush administration.

[Ben.]

I’ve been saying for a while that if he steps down, odds are that Moore would have a better than evens shot at winning Lott’s Senate seat… good to know that Novak’s caught on

It all depends firstly on weather Lott steps down or not, if he doesn’t the seat is as in play at Hatch or Kennedy’s births.

However if Lott steps down, Moore has huge potential, he’s about the most popular politician in the state while Pickering is less well known and can’t hope to match Moore personal popularity amongst Mississippi voters. 

But most importantly while Tony Knowles, Chris John and Brad Carson where, to a grater or lesser extent, robbed of victory in their senate races largely by virtue of being Democrats in red states in a presidential year… this will not be a problem for Moore in 06 (should he even decide to run).

Also unlike in the 04 elections Presidential Bush’s coattails are not what they once where nor is the GOP as robustly positioned as before loaded down with minor scandal, economic mismanagement (though not serious), the social security impasse and a deteriorating situation in Iraq and on top of all of this having been in the majority for, in effect, for over a decade all this contributes to a desire for change and a weakened position for the GOP even in states like Mississippi and especially against popular local Dems such as Moore.             

It should be remembered though that the Democrats have no concerted national strategy, as the GOP did in 1994 for example, and IMHO are unlikely to develop one in time for next falls elections… but while that will mean that nationally the Democrats are probably unable to generate any kind of uniform trend or wave, it won’t hurt powerful local candidates such as Moore who only needs the GOP at both the national and state level to be weak rather than for the national Democrats to be strong.

The though did occur to me that Moore is going to be able to raise a huge amount of cash where he to run, trial lawyers and Democrat donors know who he is and are more importantly very enamoured of him thanks to his campaigning during the late 90’s… he’ll have no problem with cash what more there will be plenty of independent Mississippi based interests which will be likely to back an established figure such as Moore.

But lets remember Lott still hasn’t said what he’s going to do… it could well be that Novak is just flying a kite as part of the effort to keep Lott in place, but the way Lott has been behaving I don’t think he stands much chance at regaining the majority leadership in 2007, so that would seem to suggest that he is indeed leaning towards retirement… but as I say I’ll wait till I hear it from someone other than Novak [spits]            

[MarkWarner08]

I can already see the GOP attack ads...

 "Mike Moore talks like a moderate in Waynesboro, but will vote like a liberal in Washington."

The viewer then sees an image of former AG Moore's mugshot morphing into  Michael Moore's penguid face.

"This November, vote for Chip Pickering and conservative, Christian values."

[Yates]

Welcome to the Atlas Forum!

[Defarge]

Has there been any polling on the race without Lott?

[7,052,770]

I wouldn't go so far as to call Moore a favorite, but I can always dream.

I do fear that the Republicans will try to tie him in to the similarly named Michael Moore though.

[7,052,770]

for those of you who aren't familar, Moore was the guy who started the tobacco lawsuits and brought a lot of money to MS.  He is very popular here, though I don't know whether or not he could win the Senate seat.  Bush got nearly 60% in '04, so he'd need about 1/6 of Bush's voters to break ranks and vote for him rather than Pickering.  Possible but a tough road.

[MarkWarner08]

Welcome to the Atlas Forum!

Thanks!
I just discovered this political gold mine. I look forward to continue posting.

[WalterMitty]

not likely.

mississippi will be reluctant to elect someone who will join the caucus of teddy kennedy, hillary clinton, dick durbin et al.

[opebo]

not likely.

mississippi will be reluctant to elect someone who will join the caucus of teddy kennedy, hillary clinton, dick durbin et al.

It is true - they consider Democrats n****r-lovers.

[7,052,770]

not likely.

mississippi will be reluctant to elect someone who will join the caucus of teddy kennedy, hillary clinton, dick durbin et al.

obviously it'll be an uphill battle, and the viscous Republican attack machine will compare Moore to all of those people, and another fellow with a similar name, but, Moore is smart enough not to be pushed around like that.  He'll fight back.

[TheresNoMoney]

Moore actually served as Mississippi AG for 16 years and is very well known throughout the state. I doubt trying to tie him to northeast Democrats will work all that well.

[Democratic Hawk]

In an open race, Moore has a good shot in Mississippi but I suspect Trent Lott is there for life if he so choses, much like his Democrratic predecessor John Stennis. I don't think Lott could have defeated Stennis

Out of interest, does any one know whether John Stennis was ever pushed close by a Republican challenger?
 
Dave

[AuH2O]

Moore v. Pickering would be a close race. It's interesting that Novak says the black population is increasing in MS, which is not correct. In any case, I think there is a real chance Lott retires for $$$ reasons. He wasn't rich to begin with and Katrina hurt him pretty bad.

But, I think he likes being a Senator. When I was in DC he always seemed pretty cheerful... he'd smile and say hi to random passers-by in the hall (including nobodys like me and other intern types). Senators get a decent enough salary... I think he will stay but the GOP will have to give him some incentives.

[Moooooo]

Lott does seem like an awful nice guy.  I dont agree with his politics and some of his past statements, but overall he seems like a really nice and down to earth guy.

[Sarnstrom]

It's interesting that Novak says the black population is increasing in MS, which is not correct.

Actually Novak is correct, in 2000 36.2% of Mississippians were Black now approximately 36.8% of Mississippians are Black. It's a small increase but it is still an increase.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Out of interest, does any one know whether John Stennis was ever pushed close by a Republican challenger?
 
Dave


Stennis was re-elected unopposed in 1952, 1958, 1964 and 1976. In 1970 he defeated Independent candidate William R. Thompson 88%-11%. In 1982 he defeated Hayley Barbour in what would be his last and his closest race by 64%-35%.

[WalterMitty]

not likely.

mississippi will be reluctant to elect someone who will join the caucus of teddy kennedy, hillary clinton, dick durbin et al.

It is true - they consider Democrats n****r-lovers.

well, opebo, the dems controled ms for most of the 20th century, how were the blacks treated down there?

[MarkWarner08]

Mississippi has a strange political dichotomy. While most of the south has renounced its Democratic ties, Mississippi and West Virginia, still elect Democrats to their state legislature. If Moore can convince voters that he's a good ole boy, he can win.

I rate this as lean Republican because of Chip Pickering potential entrance into this race. Pickering is an eloquent speaker who has benefited from his father's plight and defeated a venerable Democratic congressman in a redistricting battle by a resounding margin.