Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 15, 2019, 03:40:05 pm
News: 2020 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginia)
  Is battleground TX the end of the electoral college?
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: Is battleground TX the end of the electoral college?  (Read 1428 times)
Beef
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,093
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 03, 2019, 08:07:09 am »

Let's say this is your 2024 or 2028 battleground:



The Republicans need to win every single one of those states in gray.

The Democrats need Texas.

And even fronting the GOP Florida, it's still a daunting map. At what point do Republican state legislatures cave and join the popular vote interstate compact?
Logged
Landslide Warren
Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,804
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.00, S: -4.00

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 03, 2019, 08:27:52 am »

Yep. If they lose TX, they also lose GA and AZ, and sweeping all of WI/MI/PA and taking NC isn't enough. Even flipping MN/NH/ME is a loss. They would need to sweep all of those states, plus winning a state like IL or RI/CT/DE.
Logged
WithLeast
Rookie
*
Posts: 22


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 03, 2019, 01:31:53 pm »

I highly doubt it. If the Republicans lose Texas then they will probably just change the national party platform to either appeal more to Texas (and other southern states) or the northeast and forget Texas all together. The Republicans have won without Texas and will likely win again without Texas.
Logged
Beef
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,093
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 03, 2019, 01:57:42 pm »

I highly doubt it. If the Republicans lose Texas then they will probably just change the national party platform to either appeal more to Texas (and other southern states) or the northeast and forget Texas all together. The Republicans have won without Texas and will likely win again without Texas.

In either case, they can no longer be the Fragile White People's Party, and I will dance and rejoice and start voting for Republicans again.
Logged
dw93
DWL
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,909
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 03, 2019, 08:09:09 pm »

I highly doubt it. If the Republicans lose Texas then they will probably just change the national party platform to either appeal more to Texas (and other southern states) or the northeast and forget Texas all together. The Republicans have won without Texas and will likely win again without Texas.

It'll take time for them to win without Texas. They haven't done so since 1968.
Logged
Beef
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,093
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 04, 2019, 12:54:27 pm »

I highly doubt it. If the Republicans lose Texas then they will probably just change the national party platform to either appeal more to Texas (and other southern states) or the northeast and forget Texas all together. The Republicans have won without Texas and will likely win again without Texas.

It'll take time for them to win without Texas. They haven't done so since 1968.

Also, in 1968 Texas was only 25 EVs. In 2024 it will be 41. WI+MI+PA = 44, making all three of these states basically essential on any victory map.

If you assume blue Texas implies blue AZ (which I think is a fairly safe assumption), you now need to expand the map into states no Republican has won since 1988. In other words, Minnesota becomes a critical state!

But it gets worse. This map, which was a 271-267 GOP victory, is now a 269-269 tie:



Battleground Texas changes everything. The GOP is now between a rock and a hard place, needing to either secure the entire midwest, or throw everything at Texas. The Democrats are playing offense all over the map.

I can't help but interpret this as the Emerging Democratic Majority now made manifest. The GOP will probably keep winning Texas as long as they can win the NPV, but they have managed to to that exactly once in the last six Presidential elections.

I have to think Republicans will be a lot more amenable to scrapping the EC when it no longer gives them an advantage.

Logged
MarkD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,043
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 05, 2019, 07:02:42 pm »

That would largely depend on the size of the Latino vote, as well as how large of the Latino vote is consistently going to vote Democratic. Yes, it will be a battleground state, not at all like California or New York -- consistently Democratic.
Logged
Old School Republican
Computer89
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,146


Political Matrix
E: 3.61, S: -0.10

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 05, 2019, 07:11:48 pm »

I highly doubt it. If the Republicans lose Texas then they will probably just change the national party platform to either appeal more to Texas (and other southern states) or the northeast and forget Texas all together. The Republicans have won without Texas and will likely win again without Texas.

It'll take time for them to win without Texas. They haven't done so since 1968.

Also, in 1968 Texas was only 25 EVs. In 2024 it will be 41. WI+MI+PA = 44, making all three of these states basically essential on any victory map.

If you assume blue Texas implies blue AZ (which I think is a fairly safe assumption), you now need to expand the map into states no Republican has won since 1988. In other words, Minnesota becomes a critical state!

But it gets worse. This map, which was a 271-267 GOP victory, is now a 269-269 tie:



Battleground Texas changes everything. The GOP is now between a rock and a hard place, needing to either secure the entire midwest, or throw everything at Texas. The Democrats are playing offense all over the map.

I can't help but interpret this as the Emerging Democratic Majority now made manifest. The GOP will probably keep winning Texas as long as they can win the NPV, but they have managed to to that exactly once in the last six Presidential elections.

I have to think Republicans will be a lot more amenable to scrapping the EC when it no longer gives them an advantage.



If TX Goes so does GA which makes that map even worse cause now the GOP will need either IL or NJ
Logged
Deluded retread Vice Chair LFROMNJ
lfromnj
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,273


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 05, 2019, 09:28:03 pm »

It would be a problem for the GOP at a presidential level for about 12 years until a recalibration but the GOP would have a massive Senate advantage.
Logged
Old School Republican
Computer89
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,146


Political Matrix
E: 3.61, S: -0.10

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 05, 2019, 11:13:25 pm »

It would be a problem for the GOP at a presidential level for about 12 years until a recalibration but the GOP would have a massive Senate advantage.

Sorta reverse 80s except with the Senate being the GOP version of the Dems House
Logged
538Electoral
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,581


P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 06, 2019, 03:27:39 am »

I highly doubt it. If the Republicans lose Texas then they will probably just change the national party platform to either appeal more to Texas (and other southern states) or the northeast and forget Texas all together. The Republicans have won without Texas and will likely win again without Texas.

It'll take time for them to win without Texas. They haven't done so since 1968.

Also, in 1968 Texas was only 25 EVs. In 2024 it will be 41. WI+MI+PA = 44, making all three of these states basically essential on any victory map.

If you assume blue Texas implies blue AZ (which I think is a fairly safe assumption), you now need to expand the map into states no Republican has won since 1988. In other words, Minnesota becomes a critical state!

But it gets worse. This map, which was a 271-267 GOP victory, is now a 269-269 tie:



Battleground Texas changes everything. The GOP is now between a rock and a hard place, needing to either secure the entire midwest, or throw everything at Texas. The Democrats are playing offense all over the map.

I can't help but interpret this as the Emerging Democratic Majority now made manifest. The GOP will probably keep winning Texas as long as they can win the NPV, but they have managed to to that exactly once in the last six Presidential elections.

I have to think Republicans will be a lot more amenable to scrapping the EC when it no longer gives them an advantage.



Republicans win ME at large on top of all of that and it's 271-267 again. They do have a path without TX. Though OSR has a point that if NC or GA goes Democrat, Republicans would then need to look for an upset somewhere else.
Logged
Old School Republican
Computer89
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,146


Political Matrix
E: 3.61, S: -0.10

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 06, 2019, 03:37:58 am »

I highly doubt it. If the Republicans lose Texas then they will probably just change the national party platform to either appeal more to Texas (and other southern states) or the northeast and forget Texas all together. The Republicans have won without Texas and will likely win again without Texas.

It'll take time for them to win without Texas. They haven't done so since 1968.

Also, in 1968 Texas was only 25 EVs. In 2024 it will be 41. WI+MI+PA = 44, making all three of these states basically essential on any victory map.

If you assume blue Texas implies blue AZ (which I think is a fairly safe assumption), you now need to expand the map into states no Republican has won since 1988. In other words, Minnesota becomes a critical state!

But it gets worse. This map, which was a 271-267 GOP victory, is now a 269-269 tie:



Battleground Texas changes everything. The GOP is now between a rock and a hard place, needing to either secure the entire midwest, or throw everything at Texas. The Democrats are playing offense all over the map.

I can't help but interpret this as the Emerging Democratic Majority now made manifest. The GOP will probably keep winning Texas as long as they can win the NPV, but they have managed to to that exactly once in the last six Presidential elections.

I have to think Republicans will be a lot more amenable to scrapping the EC when it no longer gives them an advantage.



Republicans win ME at large on top of all of that and it's 271-267 again. They do have a path without TX. Though OSR has a point that if NC or GA goes Democrat, Republicans would then need to look for an upset somewhere else.


Losing TX for the GOP would result in them basically having an 8-12 year period similar to the Democrats in the 1980s and would be a disaster for conservatives just like the 1980s were for liberals .


Logged
Beet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 24,917


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 06, 2019, 03:43:28 am »

Ehh, AOC will save the Texas GOP and by extension, the national Republican Party. Since living in Houston I have realized how much the Texas economy depends on oil and natural gas. Texas was flirting with being the next Virginia but since the 2018 election the GND stuff has gone in overdrive. Just look what has happened to the West Virginia/Appalachia Democrats when the Party declared war on coal. Now imagine a West Virginia x 10 and that's Texas, or could be.
Logged
Cory Booker
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29,732
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 06, 2019, 02:14:16 pm »

Dems with Warren/Beto or Warren/Castro or Biden, can make TX a battleground in 2020
Logged
Vosem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,999
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 07, 2019, 02:24:54 pm »

And even fronting the GOP Florida, it's still a daunting map. At what point do Republican state legislatures cave and join the popular vote interstate compact?

Assuming the next election where a Republican wins the popular vote but a Democrat wins the Electoral College is within the foreseeable future and there isn't a gap of 112 years, then. It still may not be enough given that there is resistance to joining the compact from swingy Leans D states like NV and CO; anybody vaguely competitive may try to prevent its adoption.

In other words, not bloody likely.
Logged
Cory Booker
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29,732
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 07, 2019, 09:52:39 pm »

I am bold, Beto has proved himself worthy of being a Veep candidate to Warren and Kennedy campaigned for Beto. WARREN and Biden will carry TX in 2020
Logged
NoobMaster69
dotard
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,439


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.50

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 14, 2019, 06:22:37 am »

Ehh, AOC will save the Texas GOP and by extension, the national Republican Party. Since living in Houston I have realized how much the Texas economy depends on oil and natural gas. Texas was flirting with being the next Virginia but since the 2018 election the GND stuff has gone in overdrive. Just look what has happened to the West Virginia/Appalachia Democrats when the Party declared war on coal. Now imagine a West Virginia x 10 and that's Texas, or could be.

Lol
Logged
omelott
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 476
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.00, S: -3.50

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 14, 2019, 09:58:00 pm »

Losing TX for the GOP would result in them basically having an 8-12 year period similar to the Democrats in the 1980s and would be a disaster for conservatives just like the 1980s were for liberals .

This basically sums up my thoughts on a (Atlas red) Texas. Aside from solidifying a major change in American politics, it would coincide with Democratic dominance of the executive branch. The Republican Party would be forced to reassess some of its policy decisions, especially those concerning the minority voters who (by the time Texas goes Atlas Red) would overwhelmingy compromise the Texas electorate.
Logged
R.P. McM
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 350
Ireland, Republic of


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 18, 2019, 10:43:17 pm »

It would be a problem for the GOP at a presidential level for about 12 years until a recalibration but the GOP would have a massive Senate advantage.

Crucial difference being, I don't imagine ~70% of the population is going to tolerate ~30% of the population controlling ~70% of the Senate seats and stymieing their agenda into the 2040's. Rural white trash is going to have to experience a rather brutal lesson in democracy and economic/technological/military power.
Logged
Deluded retread Vice Chair LFROMNJ
lfromnj
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,273


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 19, 2019, 12:40:34 am »

It would be a problem for the GOP at a presidential level for about 12 years until a recalibration but the GOP would have a massive Senate advantage.

Crucial difference being, I don't imagine ~70% of the population is going to tolerate ~30% of the population controlling ~70% of the Senate seats and stymieing their agenda into the 2040's. Rural white trash is going to have to experience a rather brutal lesson in democracy and economic/technological/military power.

How would this 70% fix this without amending the Constitution which requires 2/3 of all senators to vote for it?

Logged
R.P. McM
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 350
Ireland, Republic of


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 20, 2019, 06:25:52 pm »

It would be a problem for the GOP at a presidential level for about 12 years until a recalibration but the GOP would have a massive Senate advantage.

Crucial difference being, I don't imagine ~70% of the population is going to tolerate ~30% of the population controlling ~70% of the Senate seats and stymieing their agenda into the 2040's. Rural white trash is going to have to experience a rather brutal lesson in democracy and economic/technological/military power.

How would this 70% fix this without amending the Constitution which requires 2/3 of all senators to vote for it?

Extra-Constitutionally, unfortunately. Which is why the system is primed to collapse, and we're headed for a confrontation. When CA and WY are in no way equal, aside from some words written down on an ancient piece of parchment, it isn't sustainable.
Logged
Cory Booker
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29,732
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 22, 2019, 07:40:18 am »

Dems have their greatest chance to end GOP dominance and win a 412 EC vote landslide, win TX, in 2020
Logged
Basil
Jr. Member
**
Posts: 53


Political Matrix
E: -3.55, S: 1.13

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: October 22, 2019, 08:59:48 am »

Republicans would be smart not to jump on the bandwagon. While they may face some hard elections in the short to medium-run, no big tent can be sustained for long. It's impossible to please all the wings of a party, and eventually, they will have to give up certain wings to hold onto others. Then the other party has a way in to break the dominance.

We've seen this happen with Democrats during the breakdown of the New Deal coalition. I see Trump's victory as the complete rejection of that type of Democratic Party. But now Democrats have an 'in' with wealthy, suburbanites and educated whites, who have traditionally been a Republican bloc.

I don't think any of us can say for certain what the coalitions will look like in the future. Its not impossible to imagine a Republican re-emergence in New England, or even states like Washington or Oregon.
Logged
Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 44,179
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: October 22, 2019, 10:54:47 am »

Republicans would be smart not to jump on the bandwagon. While they may face some hard elections in the short to medium-run, no big tent can be sustained for long. It's impossible to please all the wings of a party, and eventually, they will have to give up certain wings to hold onto others. Then the other party has a way in to break the dominance.

We've seen this happen with Democrats during the breakdown of the New Deal coalition. I see Trump's victory as the complete rejection of that type of Democratic Party. But now Democrats have an 'in' with wealthy, suburbanites and educated whites, who have traditionally been a Republican bloc.

I don't think any of us can say for certain what the coalitions will look like in the future. Its not impossible to imagine a Republican re-emergence in New England, or even states like Washington or Oregon.

If you are interested there are some discussions about this in the rest of the trends board.

There are some difficulties that keep the Republicans locked where they are, particularly religious identity politics, and those states and places you mention are rather secular. Though of course that could change and one thing about Trump was he was able to appeal beyond that barrier to those who were concerned about trade regardless of religious fervor, hence why Maine, NH and such were so close. Though Maine is more religious than the rest of New England IIRC.
Logged
Basil
Jr. Member
**
Posts: 53


Political Matrix
E: -3.55, S: 1.13

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: October 22, 2019, 11:10:25 am »

Republicans would be smart not to jump on the bandwagon. While they may face some hard elections in the short to medium-run, no big tent can be sustained for long. It's impossible to please all the wings of a party, and eventually, they will have to give up certain wings to hold onto others. Then the other party has a way in to break the dominance.

We've seen this happen with Democrats during the breakdown of the New Deal coalition. I see Trump's victory as the complete rejection of that type of Democratic Party. But now Democrats have an 'in' with wealthy, suburbanites and educated whites, who have traditionally been a Republican bloc.

I don't think any of us can say for certain what the coalitions will look like in the future. Its not impossible to imagine a Republican re-emergence in New England, or even states like Washington or Oregon.

If you are interested there are some discussions about this in the rest of the trends board.

There are some difficulties that keep the Republicans locked where they are, particularly religious identity politics, and those states and places you mention are rather secular. Though of course that could change and one thing about Trump was he was able to appeal beyond that barrier to those who were concerned about trade regardless of religious fervor, hence why Maine, NH and such were so close. Though Maine is more religious than the rest of New England IIRC.

These things can change rather quickly though. William Jennings Bryan was a progressive Democrat Bible-thumping evangelical who didn't believe in evolution, after all. As the United States becomes less religious it will become political suicide for Republicans to keep such close ties with evangelicals. Which is why they'll have to jettison that bloc eventually.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC