I highly doubt it. If the Republicans lose Texas then they will probably just change the national party platform to either appeal more to Texas (and other southern states) or the northeast and forget Texas all together. The Republicans have won without Texas and will likely win again without Texas.
It'll take time for them to win without Texas. They haven't done so since 1968.
Also, in 1968 Texas was only 25 EVs. In 2024 it will be 41. WI+MI+PA = 44, making all three of these states basically essential on any victory map.
If you assume blue Texas implies blue AZ (which I think is a fairly safe assumption), you now need to expand the map into states no Republican has won since 1988. In other words, Minnesota becomes a critical state!
But it gets worse. This map, which was a 271-267 GOP victory, is now a 269-269 tie:
Battleground Texas changes everything. The GOP is now between a rock and a hard place, needing to either secure the entire midwest, or throw everything at Texas. The Democrats are playing offense all over the map.
I can't help but interpret this as the Emerging Democratic Majority now made manifest. The GOP will probably keep winning Texas as long as they can win the NPV, but they have managed to to that exactly once in the last six Presidential elections.
I have to think Republicans will be a lot more amenable to scrapping the EC when it no longer gives them an advantage.
Republicans win ME at large on top of all of that and it's 271-267 again. They do have a path without TX. Though OSR has a point that if NC or GA goes Democrat, Republicans would then need to look for an upset somewhere else.
