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  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, Speaker YE, Senator ON Progressive)
  AZ (Crooked|Change Research) Warren 35, Sanders 19, Biden 15, Buttigieg 13
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Author Topic: AZ (Crooked|Change Research) Warren 35, Sanders 19, Biden 15, Buttigieg 13  (Read 733 times)
Gass3268
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« on: October 03, 2019, 08:52:51 am »

Elizabeth Warren 35
Bernie Sanders 19
Joe Biden 15
Pete Buttigieg 13
Andrew Yang 8
Kamala Harris 4
Beto O’Rourke 3
Tulsi Gabbard 1
Julián Castro 1
Amy Klobuchar 1
Cory Booker 1
Tom Steyer 0

Source
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #1 on: October 03, 2019, 08:55:38 am »

Trash
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #2 on: October 03, 2019, 10:25:13 am »

Why is Crooked Media, a reputable, well known podcasting company, so set on using such a weak, outlier pollster for all their random state polls?

I mean, maybe Change is just ahead of the curve here, but they don't have a great reputation and if your polling a state that rarely gets polled you really need a good organization to do it since you can't rely on the power of averages.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #3 on: October 03, 2019, 10:52:57 am »

Why is Crooked Media, a reputable, well known podcasting company, so set on using such a weak, outlier pollster for all their random state polls?

I mean, maybe Change is just ahead of the curve here, but they don't have a great reputation and if your polling a state that rarely gets polled you really need a good organization to do it since you can't rely on the power of averages.

https://medium.com/change-research/change-research-accuracy-c4ce51a190cb

Quote
When comparing our absolute error on the top-two margin among all our polls with available public comparisons, we are similar in terms of accuracy: slightly less accurate on Senate and Governor polls, and slightly more accurate on U.S. House polls. Of course, our average price per poll is only $4,000–5,000 — usually 80–90% less than what a candidate would pay for a traditional poll.

You get what you pay for.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #4 on: October 03, 2019, 10:56:17 am »


This. Change Research is now officially trash.
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gracile
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« Reply #5 on: October 03, 2019, 11:10:11 am »

It's Change Research, so this poll is probably not very accurate. That said, I think AZ is one state that Warren could do well in based on its primary electorate.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #6 on: October 03, 2019, 11:19:31 am »

They really love Warren/Buttigieg and hate Biden, huh?
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #7 on: October 03, 2019, 11:31:01 am »

Arizona and Nevada are not too different from the 5 Western states, where Yang is doing very/extremely well, so it's not all that far-fetched to imagine that he will do well in these two states as well. Smiley
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Progressive Icon Bill de Blasio
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« Reply #8 on: October 03, 2019, 11:46:14 am »

I don't know which is more unbelievable: Biden as low as 15, or Yang as high as 8.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #9 on: October 03, 2019, 12:01:34 pm »
« Edited: October 03, 2019, 12:53:41 pm by eric82oslo »

I don't know which is more unbelievable: Biden as low as 15, or Yang as high as 8.

It's more strange that Pete is at 13% to be honest. He doesn't have much natural demographics present in Arizona, unlike Yang.
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #10 on: October 03, 2019, 12:08:00 pm »

Why is Crooked Media, a reputable, well known podcasting company, so set on using such a weak, outlier pollster for all their random state polls?

I mean, maybe Change is just ahead of the curve here, but they don't have a great reputation and if your polling a state that rarely gets polled you really need a good organization to do it since you can't rely on the power of averages.

https://medium.com/change-research/change-research-accuracy-c4ce51a190cb

Quote
When comparing our absolute error on the top-two margin among all our polls with available public comparisons, we are similar in terms of accuracy: slightly less accurate on Senate and Governor polls, and slightly more accurate on U.S. House polls. Of course, our average price per poll is only $4,000–5,000 — usually 80–90% less than what a candidate would pay for a traditional poll.

You get what you pay for.

I mean, yeah. I get why a smaller news outlet or some individual might hire Change, but why would Crooked Media? They seem like the kind of outlet that could afford to hire someone with at least a slightly better reputation.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #11 on: October 03, 2019, 12:46:21 pm »

Great poll, for Warren
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #12 on: October 03, 2019, 12:54:47 pm »

Crooked Research must've only polled Coconino County. Or they're just making up numbers.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #13 on: October 03, 2019, 12:57:25 pm »


They've been obvious trash from the very beginning.
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Holmes
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« Reply #14 on: October 03, 2019, 12:59:43 pm »

Queen of the west and midwest.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #15 on: October 03, 2019, 01:29:17 pm »

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Progressive Icon Bill de Blasio
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« Reply #16 on: October 03, 2019, 01:32:44 pm »

I don't know which is more unbelievable: Biden as low as 15, or Yang as high as 8.

It's more strange that Pete is at 13% to be honest. He doesn't have much natural demographics present in Arizona, unlike Yang.

Also very true. As much as I'd love Yang to be at 8% here (or anywhere), I think this poll is probably junk. Shame. Would love to see this state polled by someone who knows what they're doing.
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Pollster
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« Reply #17 on: October 03, 2019, 03:36:58 pm »

Yang doing well in the Democratic primary in Arizona is actually not particularly surprising - there is a sizeable bloc of Asian (especially young Asian) voters in the Phoenix metro.
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Interlocutor
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« Reply #18 on: October 03, 2019, 04:44:13 pm »


Again, this board need a polling criteria/hierarchy. Or even just removing Change Research polls here unless most of the "fun" is posting trash polls to call them trash polls
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Still couldn't quell the Bel
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« Reply #19 on: October 03, 2019, 05:37:02 pm »

Junk, but I'd like to see a legit poll of Arizona in the next month or so. It could see it being competitive (in the primary, though obviously in the GE as well.)
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #20 on: October 03, 2019, 06:14:14 pm »

I'm not sure what is more ridiculous here. Warren 35? Biden <20? Buttigieg at 13 in AZ? Yang at 8?! This is a mess.
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Andy Beshear’s Campaign Manager
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« Reply #21 on: October 06, 2019, 05:07:21 am »

Is there even any evidence that Yang voters are disproportionately Asian? I thought his primary demographic was Swedes on the Internet?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #22 on: October 06, 2019, 07:39:52 am »

Is there even any evidence that Yang voters are disproportionately Asian?

Polls of California (where the Asian share of the Dem. vote is big enough that the cross tab isn't necessarily junk) have shown him somewhere between 2nd and 4th place among Asian voters in the state, which is markedly better than he's doing with other racial groups:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=335538.msg6971410#msg6971410
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=336282.msg6976286#msg6976286
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