Gay marriage map

[Hash]

[Torie]

65% Shannon, SD

Who would have guessed that  the Sioux are gay friendly?  Is the gay gene out of control there, or what? 

[nclib]

bump for recent analysis/predictions


My county (Orange, NC) may now be at the top of this list:

These counties are the biggest homo-lovers
77% Charlottesville, VA
74% Arlington, VA
71% San Miguel, CO
70% Alexandria, VA
70% Pitkin, CO
69% Richmond City, VA
67% Dane, WI
66% Blaine, ID
65% Petersburg, VA
65% Clay, SD
65% Shannon, SD
65% Boulder, CO

[Free Palestine]

That map sure doesn't help make America look like it's not a right-wing hellhole.

[danny]

Tried updating the map with the latest numbers... Am I missing anything?

Maine question 1 (2009).

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Tried updating the map with the latest numbers... Am I missing anything?

Maine question 1 (2009).

Also North Carolina.

[morgieb]

Tried updating the map with the latest numbers... Am I missing anything?

Maine question 1 (2009).

Also North Carolina.

That post was from 2009.

When will a gay marriage referendum succeed?

[MaxQue]

Tried updating the map with the latest numbers... Am I missing anything?

Maine question 1 (2009).

Also North Carolina.

That post was from 2009.

When will a gay marriage referendum succeed?

Didn't something passed in Washington?

[Alcon]

Arizona rejected an unusually draconian ban in 2006.

In 2009, Washington State passed a referendum that gave gay domestic partnerships all the civil rights of straight marriages.

[greenforest32]

bump for recent analysis/predictions

I've given this some thought after following the polling thread.

I think this is what the map is going to look like after this year's elections (counting the most recent vote in each state) though I'm not too sure about Minnesota:



I think North Carolina's ban would have slipped below 60% had the measure been on the November general election ballot instead of the May primary.

Looking forward, a federal constitutional ban is dead even if it makes it out of Congress as the following 20 state legislatures won't ratify such an amendment in 2013 and on:



The focus would then shift to getting a majority of the states to legalize gay marriage (lawsuits in New Mexico and Pennsylvania are probably coming) if the Supreme Court doesn't want to overturn the state bans until a majority of the states have already done so. Not every state is going to have a public vote (they shouldn't in the first place but maybe you could argue it would be a good thing in a situation like New Jersey circa 2012) and some will never get the chance to undo their state amendments. I think the public votes we'll see in the near future, say 4-6 years, will be these:



Legalization initiatives in Oregon, Nevada, and Colorado (maybe Arizona too) and the state legislature referring a ban in Indiana and possibly Wyoming. I used to think the Republicans in Pennsylvania would follow Indiana as both states require constitutional amendments to pass in two sessions before being referred to the ballot but that didn't happen:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recognition_of_same-sex_unions_in_Indiana#Constitutional_Amendment_Proposals

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recognition_of_same-sex_unions_in_Pennsylvania#2011

You must be logged in to read this quote.

While the gerrymanders in IN and PA most likely mean continued Republican majorities, I get the impression the Pennsylvania initiative is dead because by the time they refer it to the ballot (2014 at the earliest?), public support will be even higher. I could be wrong though and I'm not sure why they killed the ban in committee.

West Virginia is kind of a weird waiting game. I think the state legislature would refer a constitutional ban if the state supreme court overturned the statutory ban but otherwise I expect WV Democrats would hold off on doing anything. A lawsuit here would probably not be a good idea compared to Pennsylvania or New Mexico. If WV Republicans really wanted to troll, they could be the ones to sue

[Holmes]

Supreme Court Justices in West Virginia are elected, are they not?

[bgwah]

I didn't "miss" those states, as that post is several years old.

But here's an updated version:



Now you can point out any missed votes.

[bgwah]

Arizona rejected an unusually draconian ban in 2006.

A less draconian measure passed in 2008, IIRC. The map reflects the most recent vote.

bump for recent analysis/predictions


My county (Orange, NC) may now be at the top of this list:

These counties are the biggest homo-lovers
77% Charlottesville, VA
74% Arlington, VA
71% San Miguel, CO
70% Alexandria, VA
70% Pitkin, CO
69% Richmond City, VA
67% Dane, WI
66% Blaine, ID
65% Petersburg, VA
65% Clay, SD
65% Shannon, SD
65% Boulder, CO

That seems possible. Orange was 78.94%, while San Francisco was only 75.19%.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Based on just straight support/oppose gay marriage and ignoring any measures, statutes, or propositions, I'd think it looks a lot like this. 

Green- for
Red - against

Delaware and Maryland I think are right at a 50/50, given green because that's the direction they are almost certainly moving. 

[Lief 🗽]

Based on just straight support/oppose gay marriage and ignoring any measures, statutes, or propositions, I'd think it looks a lot like this. 

Green- for
Red - against

Delaware and Maryland I think are right at a 50/50, given green because that's the direction they are almost certainly moving. 

For gay marriage is tied or ahead nationally, so it would definitely be ahead in more states than that.

[nclib]

bump

4/4 At least the anti-gay crowd will no longer be able to use the states' referenda always being anti-gay, as an excuse.

Five best counties by state:

Maine

Cumberland 65% - Portland
York 57%
Hancock 56%
Knox 55.1%
Sagadahoc 54.8%

Maryland

Montgomery 65%
Howard 59%
Baltimore City 57%
Anne Arundel 52%
Baltimore County 51%

Minnesota (blanks also included in totals)

Hennepin 64%-35% - Minneapolis
Ramsey 62%-36% - St. Paul
Cook 59%-40%
St. Louis 54.8%-44.1% - Duluth
Dakota 54.3%-44.6%

Washington

San Juan 71%
King 67% - Seattle
Jefferson 63%
Thurston 56%
Whatcom 54%

[Lief 🗽]

That looks a little better.

[Gass3268]

This was in the Marquette University Poll the last week of the campaign:

Q27
Which comes closes to your view? Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry? Or, Gay
couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry? Or, There should be no
legal recognition of a gay couple’s relationship.
N %
Allowed to legally marry 547 44%
Civil unions 360 29%
No legal recognition 278 22%
Don't know (v) 44 4%
Refused (v) 14 1%

This has been consistant throughout all of Marquette's polling during the presidential campaign

[Skill and Chance]

That looks a little better.

Really surprised about WV.

[morgieb]

That looks a little better.

Really surprised about WV.

tbf it is controlled by Democrats.

[nclib]

Minnesota by CD:

Yes % (from pro-gay to anti-gay):

MN-5: 28.55%
MN-4: 38.19%
MN-3: 43.32%
MN-2: 45.95%
MN-6: 53.40%
MN-8: 54.42%
MN-1: 54.92%
MN-7: 63.53%

Maine by CD:

(Yes %, again from pro-gay to anti-gay, though yes is pro-gay here):

ME-1: 59.03%
ME-2: 45.43%

Anyone want to guess at Maryland or Washington (or another state)?

[Marokai Backbeat]

Really surprised about WV.

tbf it is controlled by Democrats.

Don't expect that to last much longer.

[Frodo]

That looks a little better.

How come New England isn't more red?  I thought the one state still holding out against gay marriage was Rhode Island. 

[nclib]

That looks a little better.

How come New England isn't more red?  I thought the one state still holding out against gay marriage was Rhode Island. 

The map only includes states that have had a statewide referendum.

[Alcon]

That looks a little better.

How come New England isn't more red?  I thought the one state still holding out against gay marriage was Rhode Island.  

Voting results, not legal status.  The Northeast doesn't do many public referendums