Gay marriage map

[greenforest32]

bump for recent analysis/predictions

I've given this some thought after following the polling thread.

I think this is what the map is going to look like after this year's elections (counting the most recent vote in each state) though I'm not too sure about Minnesota:



I think North Carolina's ban would have slipped below 60% had the measure been on the November general election ballot instead of the May primary.

Looking forward, a federal constitutional ban is dead even if it makes it out of Congress as the following 20 state legislatures won't ratify such an amendment in 2013 and on:



The focus would then shift to getting a majority of the states to legalize gay marriage (lawsuits in New Mexico and Pennsylvania are probably coming) if the Supreme Court doesn't want to overturn the state bans until a majority of the states have already done so. Not every state is going to have a public vote (they shouldn't in the first place but maybe you could argue it would be a good thing in a situation like New Jersey circa 2012) and some will never get the chance to undo their state amendments. I think the public votes we'll see in the near future, say 4-6 years, will be these:



Legalization initiatives in Oregon, Nevada, and Colorado (maybe Arizona too) and the state legislature referring a ban in Indiana and possibly Wyoming. I used to think the Republicans in Pennsylvania would follow Indiana as both states require constitutional amendments to pass in two sessions before being referred to the ballot but that didn't happen:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recognition_of_same-sex_unions_in_Indiana#Constitutional_Amendment_Proposals

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recognition_of_same-sex_unions_in_Pennsylvania#2011

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While the gerrymanders in IN and PA most likely mean continued Republican majorities, I get the impression the Pennsylvania initiative is dead because by the time they refer it to the ballot (2014 at the earliest?), public support will be even higher. I could be wrong though and I'm not sure why they killed the ban in committee.

West Virginia is kind of a weird waiting game. I think the state legislature would refer a constitutional ban if the state supreme court overturned the statutory ban but otherwise I expect WV Democrats would hold off on doing anything. A lawsuit here would probably not be a good idea compared to Pennsylvania or New Mexico. If WV Republicans really wanted to troll, they could be the ones to sue