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Poll
Question: Rate the Arizona Senate race in 2020
#1
Likely D
#2
Lean D
#3
Toss-Up/Tilt D
#4
Toss-Up/Tilt R
#5
Lean R
#6
Likely R
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Author Topic: Rate Arizona  (Read 1569 times)
ElectionsGuy
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E: 7.10, S: -7.65

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« on: October 05, 2019, 07:56:43 AM »
A Senate version of the ratings/prediction series.

A couple of notes:

- Like the presidential threads, they will be going in order from most competitive to least.
- Since any race not rated safe by even one prognosticator is up for contention, this means we'll have a few states where it'll be a 'duh' vote and toss-ups are not an option. I suppose it makes some sense, Senate races are slightly less predictable and more dependent on internal circumstances than the presidential, but a lot of these prognosticators are stuck in 2004. If the safe rating overwhelmingly gets voted this time, it'll no longer be a state up for contention if I do this in the future.
- Florida is a stand-in for the Georgia special.
- A new thread will come every two days, opposite of the presidential one.

Vote in previous threads here:





No Election: 35
Safe D: 6
Likely D:
Lean D:
Toss-Up/Tilt D:
Toss-Up/Tilt R:
Lean R:
Likely R:
Safe R: 10
No Election: 30



Democrats: 41
Republicans: 40

Runoffs



Pickups
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Politician
Junior Chimp
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E: -0.13, S: -0.87

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« Reply #1 on: October 05, 2019, 08:14:42 AM »
Tilt D, Kelly wins by 3.
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #2 on: October 05, 2019, 08:20:13 AM »
Lean D, Kelly wins by 3. I don’t buy this one being as competitive as people are making it out to be (even if Trump wins reelection).
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Xing
xingkerui
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E: -6.52, S: -3.91

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« Reply #3 on: October 05, 2019, 09:52:54 AM »
Tilt D, the third most likely pick-up after AL and CO.
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Gracile
gracile
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E: -8.00, S: -7.65

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« Reply #4 on: October 05, 2019, 09:57:26 AM »
Tossup/Tilt D but close to Lean D.
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Heebie Jeebie
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« Reply #5 on: October 05, 2019, 10:22:15 AM »
I think the Arizona race will be close, but Kelly will win by little under a point.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #6 on: October 05, 2019, 10:43:22 AM »
Tilt D, McSally has only been a statistical tie, and 538 wants to give state to McSally
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #7 on: October 05, 2019, 11:34:33 AM »
« Edited: October 05, 2019, 12:52:32 PM by Frenchrepublican »
I expect a very close race, the Senate result will likely depend of who wins the state at the presidential level. I voted tilt D
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #8 on: October 05, 2019, 01:28:42 PM »
Dems are confident they will win AZ
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andjey
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« Reply #9 on: October 06, 2019, 02:21:33 PM »
Tossup/Tilt D
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538Electoral
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« Reply #10 on: October 11, 2019, 03:16:39 AM »
Lean R
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HarrisonL
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« Reply #11 on: October 11, 2019, 09:10:08 AM »
Tossup/Tilt D or Lean D, honestly in between these two
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S019
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« Reply #12 on: October 19, 2019, 07:33:09 AM »
Tilt D
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #13 on: October 19, 2019, 11:58:23 AM »
AZ, CO, ME, NC tilt D now, regardless what happens in other races, enough to take control. Wish list is: IA, KY, GA, AK, MT, AL , TX and KS
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President Johnson
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« Reply #14 on: October 19, 2019, 01:18:12 PM »
Tossup, tilt Democratic. I think Mark Kelly will win 50-48%.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #15 on: October 19, 2019, 01:32:01 PM »

No way.  McSally is (a) not that strong of a candidate and (b) has the baggage of not being elected in the first place.

Toss-up to tilt D.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #16 on: October 21, 2019, 05:52:41 PM »
Lean D, probably slightly more Democratic than the presidential race.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #17 on: October 22, 2019, 01:58:26 AM »
Tossup/tilt D. Whoever wins 4 prez, wins the seat.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #18 on: October 22, 2019, 07:33:31 AM »
Lean D, Kelly will win
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DeSantis4Prez
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« Reply #19 on: October 22, 2019, 03:07:10 PM »
Tilt D. Kelly is gonna win. McSally is very weak.
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #20 on: November 22, 2019, 04:04:25 PM »
Tossup
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #21 on: November 22, 2019, 06:03:29 PM »
Lean D, Kelly
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Old Man Willow
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #22 on: November 22, 2019, 06:52:52 PM »
Tilt R. McSally wins by around the same margin she lost by in 2018.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #23 on: November 22, 2019, 06:54:59 PM »
Quote from: Biden If Buttigieg on November 22, 2019, 06:52:52 PM
Tilt R. McSally wins by around the same margin she lost by in 2018.

Gun reform is a good piece of legislation Kelly will run on
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Old Man Willow
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« Reply #24 on: November 22, 2019, 06:59:48 PM »
Quote from: Cory Booker on November 22, 2019, 06:54:59 PM
Quote from: Biden If Buttigieg on November 22, 2019, 06:52:52 PM
Tilt R. McSally wins by around the same margin she lost by in 2018.

Gun reform is a good piece of legislation Kelly will run on

Which will drive up GOP turnout in Mohave county.
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