Question About 2018 WY Leg Race Where Libertarian Almost Elected

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State House District 55, based mostly around the City of Riverton. Represented by David Miller (R) since 2000. For some historical context: In the 2012 general election he won 58% of the vote vs. 36% for the Democrat, and 5.6% for Libertarian Bethany Baldes. Then he was re-elected without opposition (in the primary or general) in 2014 and 2016.

Then, while serving as the House Majority Leader, this happened in the 2018 General:

   David Miller  (R)            50.6    1,645
   Bethany Baldes  (L)    49.0    1,592
        Other/Write-in votes     0.3           11

In addition, Baldes apparently had the backing of the County Attorney, a majority of the Riverton City Council, and more than one former Riverton mayors. I assume most or all of these officials are Republicans, because Wyoming.

So my question is: WTF happened?!? I can't find anything else in the news about this race, but for a registered Libertarian to come that close and have so much institutional support, especially after Miller hadn't had opposition for years, I can't help but suspect he had some sort of scandal or otherwise seriously stepped on his d$%k.

Any info? (Paging Sven and other westerners).

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

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This race flew under the radar for me, but I'll spitball a little.

In a state where HDs are small as this, campaigns tend to be pretty small and ramshackle. But Baldes's campaign looks to have been unusually active. Here's a write-up about the race from Reason.

Baldes ran in 2012 but got 5% of the vote (in a race featuring D and R candidates, unlike 2018 which was only R vs. L). Her vote total in 2018 roughly matches the non-R vote totals from 2012. It seems plausible that a massive share of D voters in the district (who these voters are is interesting - the district covers all of a very small city on a reservation but is only 10% native ancestry) crossed over to support Baldes. Meanwhile because 2018 was generally a D wave, R turnout was pretty depressed (Miller got 700-800 fewer votes than 2012) making the final margin very close. Ballotpedia.

Super interesting to see such large D support for a libertarian candidate who tried running to the right of the R incumbent. Guess if I lived in Riverton I would vote for anybody who would potentially weaken the R position statewide even if a supermajority was still guaranteed.

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Interesting find badge!

This race flew under the radar for me, but I'll spitball a little.

In a state where HDs are small as this, campaigns tend to be pretty small and ramshackle. But Baldes's campaign looks to have been unusually active. Here's a write-up about the race from Reason.

Baldes ran in 2012 but got 5% of the vote (in a race featuring D and R candidates, unlike 2018 which was only R vs. L). Her vote total in 2018 roughly matches the non-R vote totals from 2012. It seems plausible that a massive share of D voters in the district (who these voters are is interesting - the district covers all of a very small city on a reservation but is only 10% native ancestry) crossed over to support Baldes. Meanwhile because 2018 was generally a D wave, R turnout was pretty depressed (Miller got 700-800 fewer votes than 2012) making the final margin very close. Ballotpedia.

Super interesting to see such large D support for a libertarian candidate who tried running to the right of the R incumbent. Guess if I lived in Riverton I would vote for anybody who would potentially weaken the R position statewide even if a supermajority was still guaranteed.

Thanks PW. I read that article too. The one thing it doesn't explain though is how Baldes had so much support from local politicos who were apparently Republicans. The Fremont County Attorney is confirmed a Republican. I can't tell party registration of the Riverton Council members from the town website, but the City appears to vote even more Republican than the rest of the county in state and local races. Plus it being rural Wyoming, I'd tend to bet most or all of her council and former mayor supporters were likewise Republicans rather than local Democrats.

Adding all this together I doubt this was simply a case of Baldes becoming the de facto Democratic candidate (though she probably was as well), especially as 2018 was a good Republican year even by Wyoming standards. She clearly had substantial institutional support from Republican officials, and yet Miller didn't even have a primary challenge.

"Curiouser and Curiouser".